NFL Preview-Bristol section
>> Thursday
Despite all of the hype this section of the country receives, I would be surprised to see a Super Bowl team emerge from either of these divisions.
NFC East:
1. New York Giants: (My pick: 1st, YCS pick: 1st)
While the TO-Tuna feud and all of the offseason acquistions by Daniel Snyder may dominate the headlines, the Giants have the most balanced team in the division. The offense should put plenty of points on the board with Eli now in his 3rd season, and Tiki Barber still in the tail end of his prime. While Plaxico Burress and Jeremy Shockey may not always play nice, both guys make a lot of plays, and give Eli a couple of tall options in the red zone. Also, the continued development of bruising back Brandon Jacobs give the G-Men another offensive weapon. Once he becomes more acclimated with the Giants system, watch for rookie Sinorice Moss to make some big plays. Many key defensive players may be getting up there in years, but they have yet to show much declining. Michael Strahan still gives offensive tackles nightmare, and his partner on the right side, Osi Umenyiora, has developed into a premier pass rusher in his own right. Youngsters Justin Tuck and first round draft pick Mathias Kiwunaka provide nice depth. Lavar Arrington comes to New York on a mission, wanting to put his past two disappointing seasons behind him and re-emerge as one of the NFL's most dominant defensive playmakers. The seconday will be bolstered by the acquisition of perennial Pro Bowler Sam Madison, who will team up with the emerging Gibril Wilson to lead a group that will be tested by the likes of T.O. and Santana Moss.
Will live up to expactions if: Eli continues to progress and elevates his level of play.
Will Disappoint If: The veterans start to slip and Plaxico does not match his first season numbers.
Projected Record: 11-5
2. Washington Redskins: (My pick: 2nd, YCS pick: T-3)
Yes, they look like the Shady Acres Rec League team in the preseason. However, preseason football means nothing. While Clinton Portis suffered a shoulder injury in their first preseason game, they have plenty of depth at running back in case Portis can not play at his customary high level. The shrewd acquisition of T.J. Duckett gives Joe Gibbs the bruising, John Riggins style back he craves. Also, Santana Moss has a couple of new friends with him in the receiving core, Brandon Lloyd and Antwaan Randle El. Lloyd showed flashes of brilliance in San Francisco, and should be more consistent playing with a legitimate option opposite him. Add in one the NFL's best young tight ends, Chris Cooley, and you have the makings of a potent offense. The one issue is that octegenarian Mark Brunell is in charge of getting these guys the ball. If the Skins had a more reliable option behind center, they would be the favorites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. While Brunell makes the offense a question mark, the defense should be among the best in the league again. Andre Carter gives the Skins another solid pass rusher, Marcus Washington continues to cause the Colts brass to kick themselves for letting him go, and Adam Archulata gives Sean Taylor a partner in crime in the secondary. 2005 first round pick Carlos Rogers will start this season opposite Shawn Springs, and gives the Skins a talented duo of cornerbacks to compete with Redskins and Cowboys talented group of pass catchers.
Will live up to expectations if: Mark Brunell can squeeze out one more solid season and the running game continues to be one of the NFL's best
Will Disappoint If: Brunell breaks down and the defense does not play at last year's level
Projected Record: 10-6, Wild Card
3. Dallas Cowboys (My pick: 3rd, YCS pick: 2nd)
At the opposite end of the preseason spectrum, the Cowboys looked like a juggernaut even without T.O. suiting up in the first three games. The offense should be solid as long as Drew Bledsoe stays upright. Between Julius Jones and Marion Barber, a capable runner should step forward. Along with T.O., Terry Glenn and Jason Witten give the Boys a strong receiving core. Of course, the inevitable tussle between T.O. and the Tuna will create an unnecessary distraction and divide another NFC East locker room. Another reason this could be a tumultuous season for the Boys is a defense with more questions than answers. Will Demarcus Ware consistently be able to provide a pass rush? With Greg Ellis be content to play OLB? Can Terence Newman continue to carry the secondary? The Boys look like a team vulnerable to both the pass and run and will likely be involved in a lot of high scoring games. With the questions marks on defense and a volatile situation on offense with T.O., I'm betting on this bad chemistry experiment to go up in flames.
Will Surprise If: T.O. somehow controls his ego and defense play above their heads.
Will Meet Expectations If: More like when the T.O.-Tuna explodes like a Texas oil rig
Projected Record: 8-8
4. Philadelphia Eagles: (My pick 4th, YCS pick: T-3)
While ridding themselves of T.O. will help, they still have too many holes to be a serious contender in this loaded division. The recent acquisition of Donte Stallworth gives McNabb another option to throw the ball, and should ensure that the Eagles will have a productice passing game. Brian Westbrook is a nice 3rd down, change of pace back, but Andy Reid continues on insistingly using him as their every down guy. Until that changes, look for Ryan Moats and Reno Mahes of the world to be starting 3-4 games a season. Also, the Eagles failed to bolster an overrated secondary that allowed teams to throw at will against them. Jevon Kearse will continue to be good for 6 sacks and 5 DNP's per season. Brodrick Bunkley should give the Eagles a boost against the run, but will not be able to single handedly make a difference. Like the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC, this is a team that got old real quickly, and the T.O. fiasco ensured their window closed in a swift manner. They will be competitive, but they are not at the level they were a couple of seasons ago.
Will Surprise If: An old D finds new legs, and Brian Westbrook gains magical durability
Will Meet Expectations If: Westbrook cannot last 16 games and the defense continues their downward trend
Projected Record: 7-9
AFC East:
1. New England Patriots: (My pick: 1st, YCS Pick: 1st)
While the Patriots enter the season with some major question marks, Tom Brady will make life easy for the Pats again. A budding relationship with Tight End Ben Watson should catapult Watson to the ranks of the elite at TE and give Brady a weapon to replace the departed David Givens. A strong under the radar pick-up, Doug Gabriel gives Brady another WR to get the ball. Gabriel has shown flashes the last couple of seasons, and with a great QB getting him the ball, he could break out in a major way. With the emergence of Watson and the acquisition of Gabriel, the Pats will live without holdout WR Deion Branch. In fact, when Branch returns, he could find myself without a starting job. If Chad Jackson can quickly grasp the system, Branch's demands will continue to fall on deaf ears. The drafting of future Pro Bowl running back Laurence Maroney ensures the Pats will be able to run the ball, especially if age continues to catch up to Corey Dillon. Strongly coveted by the Panthers and Colts, Maroney gives Bellicheck a back who can both run between the tackles and get by defenders on the outside. What may prevent the Pats from getting back to the Super Bowl is a defense lacking in playmakers. Richard Seymour will continue to play at a high level, but he struggles to stay healthy. While Tedy Bruschi may be the emotional leader of the D, he does not make that many big plays. Also, the Pats have yet to adequately replace Ty Law. Still, the offense should be enough to win them the weak AFC East.
Will live up to expactations if: The D can keep them in games and Brady continues to find a way to lead the team to victory
Will disappoint if: Brady cannot overcome the loss of Givens and Branch
Projected Record: 11-5
2. Miami Dolphins
A lot of people are expecting big thins from Fins, but I'm not on that bandwagon. Even if Daunte Culpepper is 100 percent, he's to prove he can be a quality QB without Randy Moss. While Chris Chambers can play, he's not at Moss's prime level. Ronnie Brown has a ton of talent, but he will the primary rnning back this season for the first time since high school. I look for him to wear down as the season goes on in his initial campaign as the feature guy. Also, their defense will finally start to show their age this season, and they have not been able to replace Sam Madison and Patrick Surtain.
Will Surpass Expectations if: Culpepper can show he's an elite QB without Moss and Brown handles the full workload
Will Disappoint If: The defense shows their age and Culpepper makes too many bad decisions
Projected Record: 8-8
3. Buffalo Bills (My pick: 3rd, YCS pick: 3rd)
If Dick Jauron can stay patient with J.P. Losman, the Bills may start climbing back to respectability. Losman and Lee Evans have built a solid rapport, and Evans should break out this season with Eric Moulds now in Houston. Willis McGahee majorly disappointed last season, but he has too much talent to average 3.8 yards per carry again this season. In order for the Bills to showcase their young talent, the offensive line must do a better job. Also, a defense that really regressed in 2005 must step up their level of play for the Bills to compete. With their selections heavily scrutinized, Donte Whitner and John McCargo will have motivation to show their picks were warranted.
Will Surpass Expectations If: Losman progresses well and McGahee proves to be an elite runner
Will Disappoint If: Their struggle in the trenches continues
Projected Record: 6-10
4. New York Jets
The Jets built a solid foundation with the drafting on D'Brickishaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold, but still do not have enough talent at the skill positions to compete this season. Chad Pennington has done his best Kerry Wood impersination the last three seasons, and will have to prove he can make difficult throws again. Curtis Martin has finally broken down, and the three headed monster of Kevan Barlow, Cedric Houston and Derrick Blaylock will attempt to provide the Jets with a solid running game. If Barlow fails to win the job, he can always claim Eric Mangini to be Mussolini. With the loss of John Abraham and Ty Law, the Jets D will successfully be able to apply to be part of the witness protection program. Jonathan Vilma and Shaun Ellis will attempt to lead the unit, but this is the start of a long rebuilding process that unsuccessfully tried to patch many gaping holes the past few seasons. Still, Mangini has the right philosophy of building a strong foundation in the trenches and will lead the Jets to a brighther future. However, 2006 has the potential to a be a real long season.
Will Suprise If: Pennington's arm has miraculously come back and a running back actually emerges
Will Disappoint If: The likely events of Pennington's annual injury and Barlow's annual underachieving occur
Projected Record: 4-12
1 comments:
I've always been a huge supporter of the "Preseason don't mean shit" mantra, but the Swam mentioned something on SportsCenter this morning that surprised me: teams that have had winless preseasons have not fared to well as of late (only four of the last 31 teams to lose all of their preseason games made the playoffs). Expect the Steelers to make it five this year, but I'm not so sure about the Redskins.
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