I'm contractually obliged to call it "The Wild Wild West"
>> Wednesday
Let's start with the NFC, since it is the home of one of last year's Super Bowl teams. That makes Seattle the team to beat in the NFC, right? Wrong.
Here are the records for the last five teams to lose the Super Bowl.
Eagles 6-10
Panthers 7-9
Raiders 4-12
Rams 7-9
Giants 7-9
Seattle still has one of the best runningbacks in the NFL and a good quarterback (I still don't consider Hasselback among the elite - the guy cant throw). The loss of Hutchinson will hurt the most important unit on a football team: the offensive line. Watch for the Seahawks to drop off and hover around a .500 record.
Arizona is another team with a lot of talent, but a weak offensive line. The Edge will not have the same year he had with the Colts, and Kurt Warner will get hit...which means Warner will get hurt.
I am already calling for the 49ers to give up on Alex Smith. It may be a bit premature, since it is only his sophomore season, but nothing Smith has done has convinced me that he has a decent future as an NFL quarterback.
This leaves the St. Louis Rams. The addition of La'Roi Glover, Corey Chaveous and Ty Hill will boost their defense to slightly better than average, which is all they will need to win this division. The firepower of Marc Bulger, Tory Holt, Steven Jackson and Kevin Curtis will put up enough points to outscore other teams. Their offensive line is not great, but Orlando Pace and Adam Timmerman are still among some of the best.
So here are my predictions for the NFC West...
1. St. Louis Rams (11-5)
2. Seattle Seahawks (8-8)
3. Arizona Cardinals (7-9)
4. San Francisco 49ers (4-12)
Onto the AFC. I think the West is easily the weakest division in the AFC. While my counterparts, Bechtel and Zuch have predicted the Chargers to make the Super Bowl, I really don't see it happening. Unlike the top rookie quarterbacks this year, Vince Young, Matt Leinart and Jay Cutler, Phillip Rivers looked horrible in preseason. And while I really don't like to read into preseason too much, when a guy is fumbling snaps, botching handoffs, and doing everything else wrong, you have to be a little worried. Rivers will catch on, eventually, but his lack of experience is going to cost the Chargers a couple games. Nonetheless, L.T. and their defense makes the Whale's Vagina a competitor in this division.
Jake the Snake is about as predictable of a crash-and-burn as you can have, Rod Smith is (sadly) getting too old to be a huge contributer to the Broncos' offense, and Javon Walker cannot carry the passing game. Jay Cutler will take over at some point this season, and the 2,000+ rushing yards they'll get from a running back committee will make Denver a decent team, but don't expect a repeat of last year.
The Chiefs are my favorite team in the West. Tamba Hali is my sleeper pick for defensive rookie of the year and he will provide a nice compliment to Jared Allen. Hali, plus the addition of Ty Law and James Reed makes the Chiefs defense a lot better than the joke they've been for the past decade. 2,000 yards rushing for LJ would be a drop-off from his production last year, and Trent Green still has some juice left in him.
The Raiders problems are easily identifiable: Aaron Brooks. Bringing Jeff George out of the home showed that even the Raiders know that Brooks isn't the answer.
So my AFC West predictions...
1. Kansas City Chiefs (11-5)
2. San Diego Chargers (9-7)
3. Denver Broncos (7-9)
4. Oakland Raiders (4-12)
There they are. They may not be perfect, but at least I got my picks out there. So let's get crack-a-lackin boys.
1 comments:
Pat, have you been watching the Chiefs the past two years?
Eddie Kennison had back-to-back 1,000 yard seasons, Trent Green had QB ratings of 95.2 and 90.1, and the Chiefs have put up more yards than any other team in each of the past two years.
What's different this year? Oh yeah, they will play the WHOLE season with a running back that put up 1750 yards with only TEN starts.
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