Blue is the color...
>> Friday
Since you don't want to watch the match on Sunday afternoon, and based on the participants, I don't blame you. I'm calling it right now.
France 1, Italy 1 (France 4-3 PKs)
Goals:
Henry (FRA)
Toni (ITA)
I bet France strikes first right after half time and Italy equalizes late (after the 75th minute). France has scored 5 of their 8 goals in this tournament in the second half. Italy has scored 3 times in the final minutes of a match in this tournament.
The two sides are the two best defensive teams in the tournament so unfortunately, don't expect a shootout. France has only conceded 2 goals in the entire tournament. Italy has only surrendered 1 (an own goal against the United States). With defense at a premium, set pieces could be pivotal. The first team to make a mistake could be done for. A 1-0 scoreline could very well be in order.
If it comes down to shots from the penalty spot, I like French keeper Fabian Barthez more than Gianluigi Buffon of Italy, but on PKs, statistically a keeper isn't supposed to stop any.
Looking at the French outfield roster, it reads like a who's who of world class soccer/football/futbol/calcio. Thierry Henry of Arsenal, Zinedine Zidane of Real Madrid, Patrick Viera of Juventus, Claude Makelele of Chelsea, and Louis Saha of Manchester United.
Italy will be looking to Alessandro Nesta and Alberto Gilardino of AC Milan, and Luca Toni of Fiorentia. Great players certainly, but none have made a name for themselves on the big stages of soccer like the French stars.
When picking my colors for the match, I like the experience under pressure of Les Blues over the relative youth of the Azzuri.
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3 comments:
I bet you're wrong; I also bet that Italy is way better than any country of anyone else's ancestry.
By the way, haven't you given enough lectures on sample size to know better than to use "5 of 8" for any statistically-based argument? It looks like you know the term better than the application.
Haha. You want a legitimate tactical preview? Talk to Tommy Smyth. If you want to understand a word you're hearing, but are willing to sacrifice a little expertise for a lot more clarity, then read my preview on YCS.
In all seriousness, I agree, sample size is key to any statistical argument, but in the World Cup Final, each team only has 6 matches. 540 minutes of action to analyze. And those are the two teams with the BIGGEST sample size! So in a World Cup Final, I think the size of your sample is more or less irrelevant, but I gotta draw something out of it, and the fact that France has scored most of their goals in the second half and Italy has only surrendered 1 goal and scored 3 times in the closing minutes is significant.
PS: My dad is rooting for France because he thinks they'll throw a better riot if they win.
Yeah, even including the qualifier games, it's tough to put together any relevant stats because of the dissimilarity in circumstances and on-field personnel.
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