Things to take into consideration

After watching the United States get dismantled by the Czech Republic from an American sports bar in Florence, Italy, and as such, not having access to the internet for a long enough time to post, it has enabled me to collect my thoughts on the latest episode of the US National Team. While the result may seem shocking given the United States' lofty #5 FIFA World Ranking, and their quarterfinal appearance in Korea/Japan four years ago, there are several things that have not been said by the pre-World Cup ESPN-hype over this US team.

Korea/Japan represented a unique set of circumstances, and as such, one can see how big a statistical outlier they could be...

#1. The Weather
In 2002 we were in Korea and Japan, which will soon be beginning their monsoon season. To avoid having every game played in the rain and putting high-priced stars at risk for injury, FIFA moved the start of the World Cup up two weeks in 2002. That tournament started on May 31, 2002. This year's edition did not begin until June 9th. This adjustment led to increased rest by European sides having finished their club season this year. In 2006, some leagues like the EPL actually moved the last day of their season up to give teams more time to prepare for Germany. England's Wayne Rooney is a classic example of this, having rehabbed an injury sustained in the closing days of his league campaign.

#2: The Element of Surprise
At France '98, the US had finished dead last, nobody knew who any of their players were since the squad was largely based out of MLS, as opposed to only about half this year. The US had squeaked into the finals having qualified on the second to last match possible. This year the US qualified with several matches to spare, finished first in their qualifying group and had won the 2005 Gold Cup (The North American Championship). Following 2002, nobody was taking this team lightly.

#3: The Far Side of the World
Since in 2002 matches were being played on the other side of the world, the turnout among European supporters was smaller, making the sites more neutral venues. Now, Europeans nearly fill most of the stadiums. This phenomenon can be reflected in 2002's unusually good performances from Turkey (3rd), South Korea (4th), USA (Quarterfinalists), Senegal (Quarterfinalists), and Paraguay (Round of 16). Do not expect similar results in Germany this summer.

#4: Soft Schedule
In 2002, the Yanks were in one of the tournament's weakest groups. This year, they are in one of, if not THE strongest group. Likewise, in 2002, they earned a round of 16 date with Mexico, whom the United States has dominated outside Mexican borders over most of the last decade. Mexico likewise seems to choke every World Cup in the knockout stages. This year, should Team USA advance, they will likely be paired against Brazil in the round of 16.

#5: The 2002 US team wasn't that great
In the 2002 tournament, the United States squeaked into the knockout rounds only because of South Korea's 1-0 victory against Portugal gave them a better goal differential against the Portugese. What people forget is that Portugal was down to 9 men in that game due to ejections at the time South Korea's goal was scored. While that game was going on, the US was getting blown out 3-1 by Poland. In group play, the Americans actually had a negative goal differential (-1). They also nearly blew a 3-0 lead against Portugal, allowing them to creep back into the game to make it 3-2 and had to survive a closing flurry.

The sky is not falling for US soccer, but these are reasons why the sky should not have been so high in the first place.