It's Miller Time to Shut the Hell Up

I admittedly do not follow the NBA, and only have a passing interest in this year’s Finals because of potential future Cubs owner Mark Cuban and former Marquette standout Dwyane Wade. Despite my lax attention, I couldn’t help but be puzzled at some comments made by Reggie Miller, which were published in the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. He claimed that Wade was getting “Jordan Calls,” receiving the benefit of the doubt from refs and countering that it was Wade who was attacking the defense. Miller also said that the way Dirk Nowitzki is playing, he could put his head down and go to the rim.

I have a couple issues with this brief comment. Please dismiss any outlandish unsubstantiated claims that follow as I admit I have watched MAYBE 15 minutes of the NBA Finals this year. I'm going to look at the stats of three players: Dirk Nowitzki and Dwyane Wade, and Reggie Miller's as a reference point.

First of all, because of Wade's nature as a slasher instead of relying on his jumper, there are more possibilities to foul him and players like him. Players with a good jump shot tend to be good at the line, as shown by Miller and Nowitzki's stats. In 18 seasons, Reggie Miller was an 89% free throw shooter. Nowitzki is an 86% career free throw shooter. Wade is a 77% free throw shooter. As such, it is more beneficial for a team to foul a player like Wade, than a player like Miller or Nowitzki.

I'm not sure if in the NBA three foul shots are awarded for a player attempting a three-pointer, but for the purposes of argument I will assume so. In his career, Miller attempted 6486 three-pointers. Wade in three years has only attempted 174. At this pace, Wade will match Miller’s total sometime in the 2043-44 season. Nowitzki attempts an average of 286 3-pointers a season, Miller averaged 360. Wade on average attempts 58. Again, there is far less incentive to foul a player like Miller or Nowitzki if they're chucking up lucrative shots from behind the arc. More incentive to try to suffocate a player like Wade in the paint. These statistics are somewhat flawed because the players involved are very different kinds of players. At the same time, their respective numbers show a marked difference in the incentive for defenders to foul them.

Another way to judge frequency of interior play and likelihood of being fouled is offensive rebounds. While I imagine fewer fouls take place actually during the rebound, the frequency of offensive rebounds indicates a player's repeated proximity to the basket, scoring opportunities, and as such, the defense. In 18 seasons, Miller had 883 ORBs. In only 3 seasons, Wade has more 1/3 of Miller’s career total, sitting at 302. Through eight seasons, Nowitzki has 764 ORBs. While the ratios for Dirk (95.5/season) and Dwyane (100.7) are more or less even, keep in mind that Nowitzki is listed at 6'11" and Wade is only listed at 6'4".

I'd like to see the statistics for times fouled in the paint by both players, but it seems that with Wade attempting fewer three pointers, slashing to the lane to get his points, being a worse free-throw shooter and flying into the Land of the Giants to grab more ORBs, it would seem as no surprise that he would get fouled more often.

Could Nowitzki get the same "treatment" if he only lowered his head? Perhaps. But it would require a total change in the kind of player Nowitzki is. Taking a jump shot with one or at most two players in your face is inherently going to have a smaller chance of picking up a foul than driving to the hoop, running the gauntlet down the lane between three or four defenders.