YCS College Basketball Preview Part Deux

After my profiling of three surprising teams, here are my disappointing ones. I don't think that they will be lacking name recognition.

1. Duke: God bless America, this looks like the year Duke finally has to suffer through rebuilding. I'm expecting Coach K's back to flare up again at midseason, or has he come up with a better excuse since 1995? (Duke went 13-18 that year, and Coach K left in the middle of season) Already expected to be a down season for the Dukies, they will now play a good portion of this upcoming campaign without starting point guard Greg Paulus. Paulus broke his foot in workouts, which leaves America's Team without a true point guard on the roster. As Marquette fans can attest to, this leads to ugly ballhandling scenarios. The next Duke golden boy, Jon Scheyer, will fill in at the point for Paulus. While I can personally attest to Scheyer's offensive skills, he is a wing guard not meant to be the primary ballhandler. Duke does have solid talent on the wings with incoming freshman Geral Henderson, and holdovers Demarcus Nelson and Marty Pocius. Pocius plays very aggressively, but would often make dumb mistakes that would lead Coach K to benching him. If he can reign in his game, he could help pick up the scoring load of the departed J.J. Redick and Shelden Williams. Henderson has garnered some comparisons to Grant Hill, but he does not possess Hill's ballhandling ability yet. He will be their most athletic perimeter player since Jay Williams, but may not be ready to make a huge contribution. Demarcus Nelson can take the ball to the basket, but does not have a reliable perimeter shot, and does not have the right mindset to play the point. The key to Duke's season will be the improvement of Josh McRoberts. McRoberts should blossom into an all-conference type player this season, but it's premature for him to be regarded as an All-American. Late signee Lance Thomas gives Duke an athletic four man, and he should help McRoberts shoulder some of the frontcourt load. Massive freshman Brian Zoubek(7'1, 270 pounds) will alter shots and bang down low. There is a strong collection of young talent in Durham. However, unless Paulus makes a quicker than expected recovery, they will struggle terribly against quick, aggressive teams like Marquette, North Carolina and Georgia Tech. I think Duke should comfortably make the Big Dance, but projections of them being a top 10-15 team are way off.

2. UCLA: The loss of point guard Jordan Farmar and big man Ryan Hollins will hurt a lot more than most experts predict. Farmar's back-up, Darren Collison, did a nice job as a freshman who came in for a change of pace. However, I expect Collison's aggressiveness will cause him to turn the ball too much for a point guard. Also, he lacks a proven back-up. Aaron Afflalo wisely pulled his name out of the NBA Draft, but will he be worried about impressing scouts? Hassan Adams can tell you how that can effect your game. An impressive freshman two seasons ago, Josh Shipp returns from a serious hip injury that forced him to redshirt last season. He appears to have recovered nicely, but you never know with hip injuries. Hollins quietly emerged as a strong post presence during the Bruins late season run. Replacing him will be difficult, especially since there is no proven option. Sophomores Alfred Aboya and Ryan Wright have potential, but neither showed a level of consistency last season. The prince, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, was one of the biggest freshman surprised last season. The least heralded member of the Bruins strong 2005 recruiting class, he did a little bit of everything last season. He should be the one consistent member of the squad, although the NBA issue also lingers with him. Once again, I don't expect the Bruins to be a complete failure this season. However, a top 10 ranking is unjustified for a team with so many questions.

3. Kentucky: The last time they missed the NCAA Tournament, the first Bush had just begun his regin of terror. The streak will end this year, as the younger Bush continues to do such a fine job. And yes, politics will play a part in the Cats struggles. Backwoods Kentuckians, probably drunk on moonshine, have continually sabotaged Tubby Smith's regime. Smith, despite winning lots of games at Kentucky in a classy manner, continually has to dodge job threats. While fans point to his struggles in recruiting, I believe the root cause of this to be his job insecurity. Recruits do notwant to commit to a coach who may not be there when they arrive on campus. Smith has made a strong commitment to Kentucky despite overtures from other major schools and the NBA. However, he has not received the same commitment in return. All of this has caused the Cats to have a young, unathletic roster. Ramel Bradley, a natural off guard, will have to be the starting point guard. Freshman Derrick Jasper, also a better fit off the ball, will be Bradley's primary back-up. At the wing spots, junior Joe Crawford, a mild disappointment so far based on his incoming reputation. While Crawford had a much more effective sophomore season, he has not developed into the prolific scorer many scouts projected him to be. Another freshman, Jodie Meeks, has a good chance of earning a starting spot at the the other wing shot. With a reputation as a perimeter marksman, Meeks may be the newcomer most ready to contribute. Seniors Bobby Perry and Sheray Thomas will compete for a starting spot in the frontcourt, with Perry likely winning the spot. Perry showed promise as a scorer off the bench last season, and he will need to become a go to guy upfront along with Randolph Morris. Morris had a respectable sophomore season when he finally entered the line-up following a lengthy suspension due to his flirtation with the 2005 Draft. A skilled back to the basket player, Morris needs to put the Cats on his back for them to compete in the loaded SEC. So far, he has not been that type of player. There are questions if he can become that guy? In years past, Tubby Smith has made up for a lack of elite talent. This season, in a conference that will be its toughest in a decade, it will finally catch up to Cats. This should lead to the beginning of a new regime and allow for Tubby to go somewhere his coaching ability and class will be lauded.