YCS Roundtable: The BCS

>> Wednesday


It's coming to be that time of year again, when the debate over the college football postseason rages across the land between Bowl traditionalists, BCS apologists, and Playoff advocates. To get a pulse, I'd like to ask every YCS writer to opine, without resorting to threats of violence or childish name-calling.

The motivation for writing this piece comes from a CSTV piece where the National Title game is discussed, especially in the light of #1 Ohio State and #2 Michigan's potential clash of unbeatens to end the season.

CSTV's Brian Curtis says in the above video that if Michigan or Ohio State barely lose to each other, then there should be a rematch in the BCS Title Game instead of the appearance by a potentially undefeated Big East team like West Virginia or Louisville. Curtis's argument is that the Big East teams "Haven't played anybody besides themselves."

For argument's sake, let's examine nonconference schedules.
Rutgers (8-0) : Won @ UNC, Blew out Illinois, Blew out Howard, Blew out Navy, Blew out Ohio
Louisville (7-0): Beat Kentucky, @ Temple , @ Kansas State, @ MTSU, and Miami (FL) all in blowouts
West Virginia (7-0): Blew out Marshall, Eastern Washington, Maryland, @Mississippi State, and won @ East Carolina.

What do all these schools have in common? All three handily trounced their nonconference schedules, and each of them destroyed at least two teams from a more respected BCS conference, with at least one of those victories coming on the road. Admittedly, the other BCS teams are in the lower half of their league, but at least they're playing them.

Now let's look at Ohio State and Michigan.
Ohio State (9-0): Blew out Northern Illinois, @Texas, Cincinnati, and Bowling Green.
Michigan (9-0): Blew out Vanderbilt, Central Michigan, @ Notre Dame, and prepares for a tough test against Ball State this weekend.

Louisville alone has played three BCS conference teams. Ohio State and Michigan combined have played four (If you include Notre Dame).

This is the nature of non-conference schedules. Aside from maybe one marquee game per team like Ohio State-Texas, they ALL tend to suck, regardless of conference affiliation. So the Big East's marquee wins are against less impressive opposition. Fair enough, but aside from one hat-hanging win, and some blowouts against a collection of patsies, could anything be said differently for the Big Ten? Is Michigan hanging its national title hopes on an undefeated conference season and a win over a decidedly overrated Notre Dame team any different than Louisville hanging its hopes on an undefeated conference season and a win over a decidedly overrated Miami team?

Duh. Yes it is. The Big Ten is of course a stronger conference than the Big East, at least on paper, right? My point is if you're Brian Curtis and are going to make the argument that a Big Ten runner-up is more deserving of a spot in the National Title game than an undefeated Big East champion, then say it's because of their stronger schedule and team as a whole, not just their non-conference schedule.

If Big East teams, don't play any quality teams besides themselves, that is tacitly saying that the Big East is a quality conference. If an undefeated Big East team doesn't merit more consideration than a 1-loss Big Ten team, then what's the point of even having the Big East in the BCS if they're just going to be a BCS bridesmaid? How do we know an undefeated Big East champion isn't better than a Big Ten runner-up if they don't play on the field? If West Virginia and Louisville suck so much to not warrant national title consideration if they run the table, why are they ranked #3 and #5?

The only semblance of a measuring stick we have here is to compare the conferences against each other. In games between Big East teams and Big Ten teams this year, the series is tied 3-3, mostly with the powers of one conference picking off the bottom-feeders of the other
(Michigan State over Pitt, Ohio State over Cincinnati, Iowa over Syracuse, Syracuse over Illinois, Rutgers over Illinois, Connecticut over Indiana.) Hardly a definitive statement of Big Ten hegemony on the field.

I'm coming around to the conclusion that if a 1-loss Michigan/Ohio State team beats out an undefeated Big East team for the national title game, we need to either ditch the polls or ditch the bowls (BCS doesn't rhyme). If we just want the two best teams to play each other regardless of final record, then forget the BCS, and let's just have the writers have their #1 and #2 teams in the final regular season polls play each other. It sure would simplify things. But if we want running the table in a BCS conference and winning games on the road against BCS conference teams to count for something, then either the Big East undefeated champion should be in the national title game, or we need to rethink the whole idea. The polls should then be irrelevant in selection, like with the NCAA basketball tournament. The selection committee would look at what each team did on the field, not at what the writers think, and seed teams accordingly.

DISCLAIMER: This post is not to imply that I think West Virginia, Louisville, or Rutgers is a better team than Michigan or Ohio State, or that the Big East is a better conference than the Big Ten, or that I endorse a playoff. I'm merely saying that untill the conference champions play each other on the field, no one knows for sure who is better. That's why they play the games.

13 comments:

Unknown 5:56 PM  

Great article, but undermined by saying "that's why they play the game." That's a Chris Bermanesque cliche, and you're above that. Or maybe you're not. Anyway, I don't know.

While I think that either Michigan or Ohio State would probably trounce West Virginia, Rutgers and Louisville were they to play, I do agree in principle to the argument that you're making. Regardless of who it is, it's going to come out unfairly (Auburn, anyone?). That's the plight of the corrupt system.

However, I would love to see them play in a bracket style tournament to see who the best really is.

Mike 6:23 PM  

In a perfect world, I'd like to see the 11 D-1 Conference Champs square off with 5 at large teams with conference protection in the first round at neutral "bowl" sites throughout January with a final held the weekend before the Super Bowl, but I'm not the head of NCAA football and that's probably for the best.

Unknown 9:25 PM  

I think we all agree that your system is (from a fan's perspective) pretty much flawless, it just would never get approved by the money hungry NCAA, because the BCS generates too much cash.

Vinnie 9:55 PM  
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Vinnie 9:57 PM  

As for my opinion, I find the BCS hilarious because, as I see it, it does nothing to combat the subjectivity of the old system. It still contains those same subjective elements (polls), and its objective elements are things people generally distrust as criteria.

When you have so many teams with such vastly different schedules and so short a season, it's utterly impossible to use objective measures in crowning the best teams. So why not just trust the subjective judgment of expert evaluations of each team's entire season?

I know we like the idea of "proving it on the field." Yeah, 1 vs. 2 is great because we like championship games, and let's face it; rarely will the first and second best teams have demonstrated any clear distinction in superiority. So yeah, let them play each other. And hell, the #1-to-#4 distinction probably isn't much either.

But at some point, you get too inclusive. I'd hate to say it, but look at baseball. Any facade of the best team winning the playoff system is gone. I know true superiority in football tends to manifest itself more legitimately in short samples as compared to baseball, but still. A playoff system is just asking for "Well we could've kicked #1's ass, but in our 2-vs.-7 game we just played a clunker. We shouldn't've had to play that game and should've had our shot at the title."

I would think, subjectively, there could be a reasonable consensus on a #1 team who has proven themselves superior--if not to every other team--at least to a fifth best team. I could be wrong. Maybe that line needs to be drawn at 8 or 16.

The point remains: subjectivity is unavoidable, and no matter how fair any system may seem, there's no guarantee that the champ reflects the "best team"--if such a thing even exists. And if it does, it's truly impossible to define and determine, even hypothetically.

So yeah, let the polls pick four best teams and let them play round-robin style or something. Fuck if I know. Screw it--let's just draw the national champ out of a hat.

Anonymous,  12:36 PM  

As a Big Ten guy, I'm personally of the opinion that the either Ohio State or Michigan would smoke WVU or Louisville (and as an Illini guy, I can attest that beating Illinois isn't exactly a great non-conference BCS achievement), but I do agree that the system continues to be ridiculous. Here's the proposal that I wrote a couple of months ago for a bowl/playoff hybrid that tries to resolve all of the current obstacles to the playoff system (i.e. the BCS conferences wanting the power):

http://frankthetank.wordpress.com/2006/07/28/the-best-of-both-worlds-a-modest-proposal-for-a-college-football-playoff-that-keeps-the-bowls/

Anonymous,  12:40 PM  

Here's the hyperlink for the proposal above:

The Best of Both Worlds

Anonymous,  2:24 PM  

AWESOME article.

Best I've read on the subject thus far.

By the way, I do advocate a playoff system, and (in my infinte boredom) came up with a system in which there can be a 16 team playoff while STILL maintaining all of the old traditional Bowl games everyone loves so much. I just don't feel like typing the whole thing out right here since, well, no one will care anyways haha.

By the way, Pitt's not a Big East bottom feeder. They're more of a middle-of-the-road type team. Remember, when Mich. State beat Pitt Mich. State was on a major hot streak... that ended with about 3 minutes left in the Notre Dame game. After that, they began crapping the bed week after week.

Anonymous,  3:00 PM  

Nice job, and I agree with almost everything you said. Except it should be noted that Maryland is in no way in the bottom half of the ACC, in fact they're tied for first in the Coastal Division and are ahead of Virginia Tech, Clemson, and (admittedly crappy) Florida State in conference.

Anonymous,  3:50 PM  

I think it is hilarious how many writers there are like yourself who will not come to grips with the fact that WVU and UL have not played the same schedule (in or out of conference) as Ohio State and Michigan. OSU and UM both have ROAD blowout wins over top 15 teams and OSU has a road blowout win over a TOP FIVE team. WVU's top road non-conference win was over mississippi state? UL played at MTSU? What do those letters even stand for?

Don't get me wrong, the game tonight should be a good one, and the top of the big east might compare to the top of other power conferences, but the big east doesn't have the depth of the SEC, or the Big 10, or even the Big 12. If UL or WVU played in any of those conferences they might have 3 or 4 losses by now.

The big east is a basketball conference. Period.

Nathan 6:45 PM  

First off, great article Seve.

Until there is a playoff system (which could possibly never happen) the only way to end this argument once and for all is to have multiple games (one game is clearly not a big enough sample size) between the Big East "Powerhouse" teams and big name one-loss teams from BCS conferences.

I have a bad feeling that an undefeated Big East team is going to get snubbed from the championship game. And often times when a team gets snubbed, they go take a shit on the field in whatever less-than-satisfactory bowl game they're invited to.

The Big East cannot afford to let this happen because then everyone will laugh and point and say, "See, I told you they're not that good."

Even if an undefeated team gets left out of the championship game in favor of Texas or Florida, the Big East can go a long way if their snubbed team goes out and beats one of the better teams from the Big Ten or SEC.

Last year West Virginia got stuck playing a very average Georgia team in the Sugar Bowl, so when the Mountaineers beat the Bulldogs, no one was all that impressed. But this year there should be eight really good teams in the BCS, and a victory or two for the Big East could mean that we see one of their teams in the Championship game within the next couple of years.

Whew! Holy hell that was a long comment.

Nathan 6:50 PM  

Oh yeah, another thing...

A REMATCH between Michigan and Ohio State? Yeah, a two-game series sounds like a good way to crown a champion. God damn it Brian Curtis, that is the dumbest thing I've ever heard.

Unknown 12:26 AM  

I'm all for a 16 team playoff, but part of that may be the NCAA Tournament junkie in me. Still, besides the fact it would end most arguments, I think it would actually improve the regular season. Currently, a season is generally over after the first loss. With a 16 team playoff, 1 and even 2 loss teams would likely qualify, and late season game would take on an even greater importance. Think of the excitement of late February and early March college basketball games when a team is fighting for their tournament life. While an 8 team playoff would also satisfy me, the B"C"S needs to go.

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