Not So Fast My Friend
>> Tuesday
While cliff jumping has become Milwaukee's most popular activity, I'm back to provide a little sanity about our Warriors. While memories of NIT campaigns in 2004 and 2005 still remain fresh in many people's minds, the talent on this team greatly trumps those squads. Now, the following things are true and need to be improved for a turnaround to occur:
1. The zone offense has come straight from the Oakland Raiders playbook.
2. Dominic James has an ankle bracelet that prevents him from crossing the three point line.
3. The big men are not on par with most Big East teams.
4. The perimeter shooting has flat out stunk.
Thankfully, Marquette has already played two of the Big East's best zone teams. On the upcoming schedule, only Villanova and West Virginia regularly employ zone defenses. While some teams will play zone because of our reputation, many coaches stick to their guns and only use the defense that they are comfortable with. Plus, there is the slight chance Crean finally stumbles upon what works against zones.
I would be shocked if James's play does not improve, even if it is to keep his draft stock from plummeting further. The better he plays, the quicker he makes big bucks. The third point scares me the most, since Trevor Mbakwe will not be donning a Warriors uniform for 10 months.
However, Syracuse and Providence have two of the league's best frontcourts. Other than Georgetown and Pitt, Marquette should not be in danger of losing a game just because of being badly outmanned upfront. In many contests, and even with Georgetown, the backcourt strength and ability to create turnovers will potentially overwhelm teams.
The loss of Steve Novak has been terribly felt on the perimeter. Wesley Matthews and Dan Fitzgerald have not picked up Novak's slack. Heralded freshman Lazar Hayward has not had many outside touches after a slow start from behind the arc. The other freshman, David Cubillan, has been very solid and needs to get more shots. Past performance dictates Matthews and Hayward will shoot better as the season goes on, assuming they get enough shots. If Dan Fitzgerald can ever pull the trigger, he will be a dangerous outside threat. Dominic James and Jerel McNeal need to stop shooting from deep. Their outside shots need to be better distributed, which I think will happen at some point this season.
There's a good chance I could be way off, and Marquette stumbles to a 6-10 conference season. However, I'm still predicting a 10-6 conference record and that these first two games will be happily forgotten in March.
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6 comments:
Thank you, Zuch. I'm right with you. Maybe it takes a huge hoops fan like you or someone who remembers the Wardle era to realize how talented this team is despite the struggles. And haven't we stumbled at this time of year in most of Crean's seasons?
Seriously, assholes, enjoy talented awesomeguys playing Big East basketball and quit panicking about an 0-2 start. Even if we go 6-10, I'll sure as shit take that over following a bubble team from a mid-major or a good low-major praying to play up to par when the conference tourney comes.
Just because he kicked you out of the Al that one time doesn't mean he's overrated.
If teams that normally run a man defense want to switch to a zone, I strongly encourage that. Even Marquette should be able to exploit an amateur zone defense.
Bottom line about this team is that I think a lot of people (I'll admit, even I) had a lot of perhaps unrealistic expectations for a still-very-young team whose only senior leadership comes from Mike Kinsella and Jamil Lott.
When the preseason picks came out listing MU as a dark horse, perhaps all of Warrior Nation had visions of Big East titles and Final Four runs dancing in their heads, (not knowing the difference between "Dark Horse" and "Favorite") and in doing so forgot the critical piece from last year. Steve Novak.
In addition to providing very valuable senior leadership in '06, Novak was lethal from beyond the arc, and opened up space for DJ, McNeal, and Wes to drive, collect rebounds and make putbacks. This year, without Novak, and the only real three-point threats coming off the bench (Cubillan averages 20 minutes; Fitzgerald, 19), there's not much to keep defenders honest, and those lanes collapse.
At the charity stripe, with Money and his 97% free throw percentage in the lineup last season, somehow DJ's 64% from the line didn't look so bad. This year, his same 64% from the charity stripe appears more prominent, even though the doomsayers say he has "regressed." He hasn't regressed. The Goldvests just wanted him to be the next Dwyane Wade as a sophomore.
James's numbers are nearly identical to last season, in terms of fg percentage, ft pct, and ppg. McNeal and Matthews likewise have similar shooting numbers compared to last year. DJ's 3-pt percentage is down, largely due to him taking 5x as many threes as last year, overcompensating for lack of Novak. Fitz and Cubillan need to be taking the lions' share of 3-pointers, and James and McNeal less. McNeal shot 46 treys all of last season. So far in 06-07, he's already shot 57.
A lot of message board blame has also fallen on the development of Ousmane Barro or lack thereof, but the man has the best field goal percentage on the team! (.600 heading into the UConn game) I think a lot of fans wanted him to all of a sudden be Okafor, but players like Okafor are so rare it's irrational to expect anyone to achieve what he did at UConn.
DJ and the sophomores I think are in the same position now that Scott Merritt was in in '03-'04 following the departure of Robert Jackson. They're trying to fill a void where they don't have the skillset to perform in anything beyond a placeholder role (Merritt was not a D-I center, DJ, and Jerel are not perimeter shooters).
Here's hoping for a win tonight.
Please. Senior leadership is overrated. As long as your leaders have at least a year of significant minutes under the belt, they're mature as college athletics go.
They're young? I never buy that crap. In college hoops, if you have talent, you're young. Even if you're not a top-tier program, you still win with key contributors in their first or second year.
I think leadership takes on two types in sports--the kind that draws on experience and the kind that draws on ability/confidence. In terms of the latter, I think a guy like James is ahead of where someone like Novak was at the start of last season. Sure, in terms of the first type, he's clearly not.
But honestly, I'm not so sure how much that experience leadership does in college hoops. A young college kid learns on more of an impulse-response pattern from his own successes/failures and not from a senior sharing wisdom. Having the more immediate leadership that comes from a really talented, confident guy on the court at all times makes much more difference in college. At least in my opinion.
Crean's not a great in-game strategist by any means, with Zone Defense and late game situations being the two most glaring weaknesses. I'm not super worried about zone defenses, since most teams strictly play man. Nate's right on the money in that a man team will often struggle with zone. Also, late game situations have baffled Crean in the past. Now, in the situation Pat brings up, you can and should hold for a second with 6-8 seconds to go(allow time to get the board and another shot) if you're down 3 and have the ball. Since you control the ball, no reason to create an extra possession since you only need one. Now, the Arizona game at the BC was a situation where he should have fouled. With about 40 secs to go and down 3, gambling that you'll get a stop and having little time left if even if do does not make sense. That's a situation where you want to get a few more possessions even though points were at a super premium that day(Final was 48-43 Zona IIRC).
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