Mike's World Cup Preview: Part III
>> Sunday
In this installment, I'll take a look at arguably the easiest and hardest groups in the tournament- the "Group of Death" in Group E and the coronation group in Group F.
Group E: Czech Republic, Italy, United States, Ghana
Italy is making their 16th World Cup Finals appearance, but I have some concerns about them sticking around in this one. The Azzuri are certainly a team that can play with anyone in the world, but their qualifying round was less then impressive. They were arguably placed in one of the easier groups in Europe to qualify from and only scored 17 goals in ten matches, while collecting 22 yellow cards. The Italian style of play is what most soccerphobes hate. Lots of diving, complaining, and bitching at the ref, and Italian teams usually get exposed in big competitions at the club and national team level. A match-fixing scandal emerging in Italy may also be a distraction as players worry about their domestic futures. The Czech Republic is an offensive juggernaut. They needed a play-off to get to the finals after finishing second in their qualifying group, but don't be fooled. This team scored 37 goals and only surrendered 12 in 12 matches. What may be even more remarkable is their card count. The Czechs only collected 14 yellow cards. They are a remarkably disciplined team. While every team in this group has a great shot at making it to the knockout stages, you can pretty much pencil the Czechs in right now. The good news for Ghana is that they are making their first appearance in the finals. The bad news is they have the most unfortunate nickname- "The Black Stars" after their country's flag, which has a black star on it. I can't wait for some announcer to say, "Is this serious?" after looking at the media guide. While I don't think Ghana will make it to the second round, they have a team that could very well decide who does. The first tiebreaker is goal differential, and Ghana doesn't give up many. Only 4 shots found the back of the net in 14 games of qualifying. This however will be Ghana's first shot at the world powers, and they may be overwhelmed. The Czechs, Italians, and Americans are a far cry from their qualifying group rivals of Burkina Faso, Uganda, and the DR Congo. Last but not least are the Americans. This is arguably the most discussed, most hyped American team in advance of any final. It is also arguably the best team that the USA has ever produced. It's hard to believe that only 8 years ago the Stars and Stripes finished in dead last: 32nd out of 32 at France '98. With a mixture of veterans and newcomers, European stars and homegrown talent in MLS, the United States is expected to match their quarterfinal appearance from 2002. However, several hurdles stand in their way. The most prominent is the US's atrocious record on European soil in the past few years. The United States have only won 1 game on European soil in manager Bruce Arena's 8-year tenure (a 1-0 win over Poland in 2004). In this competition, the United States has not won or tied any games in any European-hosted World Cups......ever! Their only wins/ties came in Uruguay '30, Brazil '50, USA '94, and Korea/Japan 2002. That comes out to an 0-7 performance in Europe. Don't be surprised if the Americans get humbled in their first match against the Czech Republic. That being said, I like the Americans chances against Italy because they're better disciplined, getting more yellow cards than the Italians, but also playing 8 more qualifying matches. Their goalkeeping in Kasey Keller is reliable, and the offensive strike force of Landon Donovan, Damarcus Beasley and newcomer Brian Ching will test opposing back lines. After all is said and done, I like the Czechs, and I'm going to go wayyyyyyyyy out on a limb here and say that I like the Americans, probably on a tiebreaker, so they better keep it close against the Czechs.
Group F: Brazil, Croatia, Japan, Australia
This group should be called "The race for second place" as the biggest question heading into this World Cup is "Can anybody beat Brazil?" The Brazilians are fast, skilled, terrific finishers, and have 2-time World Player of the Year Ronaldinho at the helm. Put them through to the next round...in pen. The rest of this group is harder to handicap. Australia is making their first appearance in the finals in 32 years, and needed a playoff win over Uruguay to secure it. The Socceroos are such a hard team to handicap because nobody knows anything about them. They have great numbers from qualifying, but that was all against Oceania minnows like the Solomon Islands and Fiji. They might manage to scrap a tie, but I see three straight losses for the team from the land down under. Japan turned in a great performance at the last world Cup, making it to the knockout stages, but they should have. They were playing on their home soil. With the Brazilians already through, and the Australians pretty much out of the competition already, it is essentially a head to head comparison between the Japanese and the Croats. The Japanese have a goal differential of +20 in 12 qualifying matches, the Croats have a lesser differential, but what is more impressive is their qualifying resume, which includes a pair of 1-0 wins over offensive juggernaut Sweden. As much as Japanese football has progressed over the last 10 years, I still like the Croats. Brazil, Croatia. Book em.
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9 comments:
Not so fast my friend. While the Czechs look like world beaters now, so did Portugal in 2002. In a group featuring three other strong teams, they will not be able to score goals at the prodigious clip they did in qualifying. They may be rattled because of that like the Figo led Portugese squad was in 2002. Personally, I favor Italy and the U.S. by tiebreaker making it through to the next round. Italy always makes a run in the World Cup, and the U.S. looks to be rock solid and poised to build on the 2002 run.
I agree. The difference is...a talented United States team. That Portugal team was opening up against a US team that had limped into the finals, and had come in dead last at the last World Cup. Portugal was expecting a pushover, then found themselves down 3-0 before half time. They also underestimated a rising Korea.
The Czechs are not going to make the same mistake and are fully prepared for the Americans. Regardless, if the US wants to even THINK about the second round, they need to get at least 1 point from their first two group games.
We all know that the U.S.'s chances to go far in this tournament are a ratings-grabbing fabrication by ESPN.
Naturally, Vinnie, especially seeing as how if the US finishes second in their group, they will likely play Brazil in the first knockout round.
I'm not saying that the US will for certain advance to the knockout stages, but based on the numbers in front of me, I'd say that they have a better chance than the Italians do, based on how they performed in qualifying.
The folks at ESPN have every right to hype the U.S. They made the quarters in '02 and are currently ranked 4th in FIFA World Rankings.
Just rehashing what Mike (sure to respond himself) has told me, FIFA rankings are bunk, much like a certain sport's rankings that you are exceptionally familiar with, Zuch. Also, my opinion before was based purely on ESPN expertise and not at all on any soccer expertise, as I have none.
Anyone who follows soccer will tell you that the FIFA World Rankings are AT BEST something for people like Rob Stone and Eric Wynalda to talk about.
Let's examine the latest rankings. In the top 20 teams, 6 are not even going to Germany, let alone playing for World titles.
Also: Don't say that the Czechs aren't going to be world-beaters (they're #2 in the world according to the FIFA rankings), then come back and say that this US team deserves to be hyped because they're #4. World rankings are even more worthless than college basketball polls because they tell you nothing about a 3-game group stage.
Enough World Cup Previews! This is like Jurrassic Park III (except the first two Jurrassic Parks were good).
Actually, my reasons for Czechs not making it out of the group are lack of World Cup Experience and the adjustments to the defensive style of play. Also, like the World Golf Rankings, the FIFA system may be slightly flawed, but the U.S. consistently ranking in the top 10 the last four years indicates their worthiness, as Arena has really created a burgeoning power.
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