Pat's Fearless 2008 Baseball Forecast

>> Monday

While it can be argued that some of you guys no more about football than myself (which is an absurdly ignorant notion), no one with the exception of VinnIE and maybe Bechtel (as long as we aren't talking about his crush on JJ Hardy) knows more about baseball than I. So here you go, here are my Fearless Baseball Predictions of 2008.

NL Central:
Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers
St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds
Houston Astros
Pittsburgh Pirates

NL East:
Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets
Atlanta Braves
Washington Nationals
Miami Marlins

NL West
Arizona Diamondbacks
LA Dodgers
Colorado Rockies
San Diego Padres
SF Giants (will lose 110 games)

NL Wild Card
Milwaukee Brewers (as long as Ben Sheets stays healthy and they're bullpen gets situated)

AL Central
Cleveland Indians
Detroit Tigers
Minnesota Twins
Chicago White Sox
Kansas City Royals

AL East
Boston Red Sox
Toronto Blue Jays
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays
Baltimore Orioles

AL West
Seattle Mariners
Anaheim Angels
Texas Rangers
Oakland A's

AL Wild Card
Detroit Tigers

NL Playoffs
Chicago Cubs over Philadelphia Phillies (3-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks over Milwaukee Brewers (3-1)

Chicago Cubs over Arizona Diamondbacks (4-2)

AL Playoffs
Cleveland Indians over Seattle Mariners (3-0)
Detroit Tigers over Boston Red Sox (3-2)

Cleveland Indians over Detroit Tigers (4-3)

2008 World Series
Cleveland Indians over Chicago Cubs (4-3)...and the drought continues


Vinnie 12:24 PM  

No way the Jays finish ahead of the Yankees. I also wouldn't be so sure on the Giants sucking. They did lose their only offensive threat, but the rotation should be pretty solid.

Also, I can't check the MLB futures odds right now because the server at my work blocks any site that would have them. However, I would recommend putting some small sum of money on the Tampa Bay Ray's Bar and Tap to win the division or even the World Series. PECOTA has them at 89 wins, and I would seriously doubt that their Vegas odds reflect the legitimate chance they have to contend.

Mike 2:47 PM  

Eh, even if the drought continues, it's only 7 more years till the 2015 World Series, at which time the Marlins will have moved to the AL, rename themselves after some Alligator, and lose to the Cubs in the World Series. Place your bets now.

Patrick 4:30 PM  

Vinnie, the Yankees will blow this Yankee standards. The Blue Jays a great lineup which could produce as many runs as the Yanks if Vernon Wells stays healthy and they have a pretty good rotation. Likewise the Yankees have probably the best lineup, but their rotation is borderline awful. They're still relying on Mike Mussina for cryin' out loud.

Patrick 4:32 PM  

As for the Giants, if they didn't play in the NL West, they might have a shot. But you're looking at 4 teams who could legitimately all finish above .500...and they all have substantially better teams than the Giants. Who in their starting rotation is worth noting except that Noah guy? And lets not bring washed up Barry Zito into this conversation

Matt 8:06 PM  

Relying on Mussina? Dude, their #1 starter is Wang, who is really solid. They are relying a ton on three young guys, but if two of the three pan out and they can add an arm in the middle of the season, they'll win the division.

Vinnie 8:25 PM  

Yeah, Pat. I'm gonna respectfully--but vehemently--disagree. (So do the computers, by the way... 19-win difference. It might be closer but I don't know if the PECOTA model has ever been that many games off on a team.)

The Yankees' lineup is WAY better in my opinion, and the Jays rotation isn't much after Halladay and Burnett. The Yankees isn't great, but Wang, Mussina, and Hughes are all good-to-decent, and they also have Joba if they so choose.

As for the Giants, I don't disagree that they'll probably finish last. (PECOTA agrees with us--68-94.) I just think you're exaggerating how bad they'll be. Their starting pitching is too solid to have a "biblically" bad season. Cain and Lincecum are actually their two best pitchers, I'd say. And Zito--say what you will about his contract, which I 110% agree is ridiculous--is a pretty awesom option for a third starter (or arguably fourth if Lowry has a good season).

Patrick 11:29 AM  

Wang is a good pitcher, for a #2 or #3. I just can't believe you guys can look past this. Yes, their lineup is borderline great (although they have a lot of guys who are getting very old, very fast), but their pitching is atrocious. Do you honestly think this team can keep pace with the better pitching teams?

Vincent 12:08 PM  

Very much so. They did it last year.

Matt 1:05 PM  

Vinnie didn't even mention Ian Kennedy, another young guy they're going to rely on in the rotation.

Like I said, if just two of Kennedy, Hughes and Chamberlain live up anywhere near their billing, the Yankees rotation will be really solid despite the relatively subpar Mussina at the back end.

Patrick 5:34 PM  

Oh yeah, Joba really looked like A-stuff this spring, what did he have, like a 15.00 ERA??

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