...That the Patriots aren't more of an overwhelming favorite on Sunday.
I just saw on the ESPN Bottom Line that NationOfStupidSportsFans (I think that's what they call it) are only 61.4%-38.6% picking the Pats over the Giants. Granted, I know there's a bunch of New York bias in that number, but I'm still surprised it's not more lopsided.
More surprisingly, the spread on the game is only Pats -12. Yes, I realize that's a pretty good margin as far as football games go, and especially as far as Super Bowls go.
But we're talking about a regular-season 16-0 team vs. a regular-season 10-6 team. I'm not entirely sure about this, but I believe that the Rams-Pats Super Bowl in '02--a matcup of 14-2 vs. 11-5 had a larger spread. And I know that the '95 Super Bowl between the 13-3 49ers and 11-5 Chargers was something like 19 at the start of the game (which, incredibly, the 'Niners covered).
At the time, the NFC was much better. But I think most people would agree that the AFC is just as superior now as the NFC was then. So why does a 6-game margin now mean less than a 2-game margin then? Are people just getting wiser, or is the league that much tighter in terms of team-to-team talent? (Data says, not necessarily.)
So what gives?