Last Ten Games

With Selection Sunday quickly approaching, it is now time to talk about what I feel has become the most overrated criteria in evualating team's resumes: their performance in the last ten games. In my transition to becoming a full-fledged stat geek, something that takes a look at a random sample of games should not be taken so seriously.

To use an easy example, the good guys have been "sliding" because of four losses in their last five games. It just so happened that their conference schedule has been extremely heavily backloaded. Road losses to Georgetown, Notre Dame and even DePaul are far from embarassing. A two-point home loss from a miracle three-point shot at the buzzer to surging Louisville is not anything to be ashamed about. When taking a ridiculously close look at all the resumes, I've found 15 that trump Marquette right now and another 8-10 that are very comparable to ours. Yet, there is talk of us being a potential 8-9 seed because they have "struggled" down the stretch. If you had magically flipped this tough stretch with our 8 game winning streak (basically what Maryland would be doing now), all you would hear is how Marquette quickly rising up the bracket like the Terps would be doing.

The last ten games stat seems extremely subjective, especially when so many "hot" teams down the stretch suddenly have early exits in the NCAA Tournament. With most teams having a week or so off before their first NCAA Tournament, the momentum a "hot" team may have can quickly evaporate. A team's complete body of work should not be affected by their performance in the last few games.

Now, there are occasions when the last ten games can be taken seriously. If a team has a mid/late season injury or suspension to one of their key players, you can critically evaluate their performances without said player. An excellent example of this would be Georgia Tech, who lost their leading scorer Lewis Clinch in January. The Yellow Jackets only quality win away from home, against Memphis in the Maui Invitational in November, came with Clinch in the line-up. Oklahoma State has collapsed down the stretch after losing sixth man Obi Muonelo. The Cowboys lack of depth without him has caused the starting five to become heavily fatugued, and they have lost seven of their last ten games. Conversely, a team that missed a key player for a long stretch and gets them back at the end of the season should receive credit if their return leads to a stretch of improved play.

Still, unless an extenuating circumstance exists, the last ten games should be a statistic that only comes into play when two teams have virtually identical resumes. When you win a game should have no bearing on its importance, unless other factors like injuries come into play.