Mama said knock you out!
>> Wednesday
It began on July 11th with teams that you've probably never heard of. (My apologies to all the Linfield FC and NK Široki Brijeg fans who read YCS. Your teams' 2006 Northern Irish and Bosnian league titles were well-earned.) Now it's February, and it's time for the knockout rounds of the UEFA Champions League to begin on Tuesday (Where I will be taking a day off work for an unrelated reason, and as such will be unable to post my preview then).
Likewise, since no one else on this staff would be able to show any analysis beyond that dumb secretary in the March Madness office pools who picks her winners based on how cute their mascots are, the job of handicapping the Round of 16 falls to me I guess (12-4 in the group stage). All matchups are on a two-game, home-and-home, total goals basis. In case of a tie, away goals are the first tiebreaker. Let's keep the discussion above the table.
The matchups
Liverpool FC vs. FC Barcelona
In a matchup of the last two Champions League winners, I like the Blaugrana. While Barcelona has been rocked by controversy after Samuel Eto’o refused to enter a Spanish League game over complaints of lack of playing time (How ironic.), they have at least maintained a somewhat consistent form in the rough-and-tumble Spanish League this season. Liverpool on the other hand have been maddeningly inconsistent.
Since the new year, the Reds have crushed Bolton 3-0, then followed that up with two losses to Arsenal at Anfield by scores of 3-1 and 6-3 respectively to be bounced from the League Cup and the FA Cup. They responded to that disastrous week by pasting Watford 3-0, knocking off defending champions Chelsea 2-0, then barely squeaking by relegation-bound West Ham United, a lackluster scoreless draw with crosstown rivals Everton, and a humiliating 2-1 loss to Newcastle United.
Barca: 2-1 on aggregate
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Celtic FC vs. AC Milan
Celtic is arguably one of the weaker teams still in the Champions League, and one of only three from outside the Big Five Leagues. The Bhoys have a near-insurmountable lead against weaker competition domestically, they went 3-3 in the group stage, never got a point away from Celtic Park, and had little offense to speak of (They only scored 6 goals in 6 matches). However, they are powered by Japanese international Shunsuke Nakamura, and backed by Polish international keeper Artur Boruc, who stopped a PK against Manchester United to put the Hoops through to the knockout stages.
If Celtic had a dream draw of the teams they could play in the 1/8-finals, it would have had to be AC Milan. The Rossoneri were rocked over the summer by the Italian matchfixing scandal and were initially banned from the Champions League before appeal. The uncertainty this brought to the team’s finances meant that they couldn’t spend any money in the summer transfer window. What follows is more or less the same team that lost the 2005 Champions League Final, only two years older. Milan has struggled domestically this season, currently sitting in 7th in the Italian top flight, 30 points behind rivals Inter Milan. Take away their point penalty to start the season, and they’re still only in fourth and 22 points behind Inter.Milan’s only notable Winter transfer pickup was Brazilian star Ronaldo from Real Madrid, who is more or less washed-up, slow, and overweight. He won't be able to play anyway since his play in the group stages leaves him cup-tied to Madrid.
Upset Special: Celtic: 1-0 on aggregate
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Manchester United FC vs. LOSC Lille
Manchester United. End of discussion. Lille is above and beyond the weakest team in the competition, currently 10-5-9 in the French top flight, 15 points off the leaders. The Red Devils are stocked with star power including Wayne Rooney and Christiano Ronaldo, who despite being a serial diver, is arguably one of the best players in the competition. United are en route to their first English Premier League title since 2001 domestically.
Man United: 4-1 on aggregate
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PSV Eindhoven vs. Arsenal FC
PSV is currently on top of the Dutch league, and Arsenal is 4th in the EPL. Arsenal definitely has more talent than PSV, and the Gunners are presently in a stretch of great form. Thierry Henry is lighting it up, and Jens Lehmann appears to have discovered his winning touch. Thomas Rosicky has proven to be a valuable pickup for the Gunners.
Arsenal: 3-2 on aggregate
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Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern Munich
If teams were as good as their histories, then this tie would be one for the ages. Madrid, the most successful team in Spain against Bayern, the most successful in Germany battling it out for European glory. However, both teams are shadows of their former selves. Oliver Kahn is still a great netminder for Bayern, but is not the Kahn that won the Champions League in 2001. Madrid likewise is a shadow of their “Galacticos” team. Zinedine Zidane, Luis Figo, and Ronaldo have all left for greener pastures or retirement. David Beckham is on his way to the United States, and Madrid frankly isn’t very good this year. However, they still have enough talent to eke past a Michael Ballack-less Bayern squad who is falling rapidly in the Bundesliga standings, but probably not enough talent to make it to the Semifinals.
Real Madrid: 2-2 on aggregate (Madrid advances on away goals)
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FC Porto vs. Chelsea FC
Yea, I guess there’s kind of a storyline here as Chelsea boss Jose Mourinho returns to play the club he led to a UEFA Cup title in 2003 and a UEFA Champions League title in 2004, but that’s really it. Chelsea has too much firepower to let Porto through. The Blues’ goalkeeping woes could provide enough room for an upset by the Dragons, but I wouldn’t count on it. Chelsea likewise has a lackluster record in this competition, but both years they lost to the eventual champion (Liverpool 2005, Barcelona 2006). I can assure you, FC Porto is not going to win the Champions League this season. Smart money’s on Chelsea.
Chelsea: 3-1 on aggregate
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Internazionale vs. Valencia CF
Inter is running away with the Italian title. Valencia is currently sitting in fourth place in a parity-driven Spanish League. While Valencia has made it this far, they also emerged from one of the easiest groups in the Group Stage. They also have failed to beat Getafe in domestic play three times since the New Year (0-2-1). Inter will run away with this one.
Inter 3-0 on aggregate
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AS Roma vs. Olympique Lyonnais
Lyon has been the story of the French top flight for the past five years. Roma wouldn’t even be here had they not been paired in the weakest group, and Juventus not been punished for fixing matches last year. I really don’t care who wins here, but Lyon has a better track record in the competition so I’ll pick them.
Lyon 2-1 on aggregate
---------------------------------------------------------------------------In a matchup of the last two Champions League winners, I like the Blaugrana. While Barcelona has been rocked by controversy after Samuel Eto’o refused to enter a Spanish League game over complaints of lack of playing time (How ironic.), they have at least maintained a somewhat consistent form in the rough-and-tumble Spanish League this season. Liverpool on the other hand have been maddeningly inconsistent.
Since the new year, the Reds have crushed Bolton 3-0, then followed that up with two losses to Arsenal at Anfield by scores of 3-1 and 6-3 respectively to be bounced from the League Cup and the FA Cup. They responded to that disastrous week by pasting Watford 3-0, knocking off defending champions Chelsea 2-0, then barely squeaking by relegation-bound West Ham United, a lackluster scoreless draw with crosstown rivals Everton, and a humiliating 2-1 loss to Newcastle United.
Barca: 2-1 on aggregate
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Celtic FC vs. AC Milan
Celtic is arguably one of the weaker teams still in the Champions League, and one of only three from outside the Big Five Leagues. The Bhoys have a near-insurmountable lead against weaker competition domestically, they went 3-3 in the group stage, never got a point away from Celtic Park, and had little offense to speak of (They only scored 6 goals in 6 matches). However, they are powered by Japanese international Shunsuke Nakamura, and backed by Polish international keeper Artur Boruc, who stopped a PK against Manchester United to put the Hoops through to the knockout stages.
If Celtic had a dream draw of the teams they could play in the 1/8-finals, it would have had to be AC Milan. The Rossoneri were rocked over the summer by the Italian matchfixing scandal and were initially banned from the Champions League before appeal. The uncertainty this brought to the team’s finances meant that they couldn’t spend any money in the summer transfer window. What follows is more or less the same team that lost the 2005 Champions League Final, only two years older. Milan has struggled domestically this season, currently sitting in 7th in the Italian top flight, 30 points behind rivals Inter Milan. Take away their point penalty to start the season, and they’re still only in fourth and 22 points behind Inter.Milan’s only notable Winter transfer pickup was Brazilian star Ronaldo from Real Madrid, who is more or less washed-up, slow, and overweight. He won't be able to play anyway since his play in the group stages leaves him cup-tied to Madrid.
Upset Special: Celtic: 1-0 on aggregate
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Manchester United FC vs. LOSC Lille
Manchester United. End of discussion. Lille is above and beyond the weakest team in the competition, currently 10-5-9 in the French top flight, 15 points off the leaders. The Red Devils are stocked with star power including Wayne Rooney and Christiano Ronaldo, who despite being a serial diver, is arguably one of the best players in the competition. United are en route to their first English Premier League title since 2001 domestically.
Man United: 4-1 on aggregate
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PSV Eindhoven vs. Arsenal FC
PSV is currently on top of the Dutch league, and Arsenal is 4th in the EPL. Arsenal definitely has more talent than PSV, and the Gunners are presently in a stretch of great form. Thierry Henry is lighting it up, and Jens Lehmann appears to have discovered his winning touch. Thomas Rosicky has proven to be a valuable pickup for the Gunners.
Arsenal: 3-2 on aggregate
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Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern Munich
If teams were as good as their histories, then this tie would be one for the ages. Madrid, the most successful team in Spain against Bayern, the most successful in Germany battling it out for European glory. However, both teams are shadows of their former selves. Oliver Kahn is still a great netminder for Bayern, but is not the Kahn that won the Champions League in 2001. Madrid likewise is a shadow of their “Galacticos” team. Zinedine Zidane, Luis Figo, and Ronaldo have all left for greener pastures or retirement. David Beckham is on his way to the United States, and Madrid frankly isn’t very good this year. However, they still have enough talent to eke past a Michael Ballack-less Bayern squad who is falling rapidly in the Bundesliga standings, but probably not enough talent to make it to the Semifinals.
Real Madrid: 2-2 on aggregate (Madrid advances on away goals)
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FC Porto vs. Chelsea FC
Yea, I guess there’s kind of a storyline here as Chelsea boss Jose Mourinho returns to play the club he led to a UEFA Cup title in 2003 and a UEFA Champions League title in 2004, but that’s really it. Chelsea has too much firepower to let Porto through. The Blues’ goalkeeping woes could provide enough room for an upset by the Dragons, but I wouldn’t count on it. Chelsea likewise has a lackluster record in this competition, but both years they lost to the eventual champion (Liverpool 2005, Barcelona 2006). I can assure you, FC Porto is not going to win the Champions League this season. Smart money’s on Chelsea.
Chelsea: 3-1 on aggregate
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Internazionale vs. Valencia CF
Inter is running away with the Italian title. Valencia is currently sitting in fourth place in a parity-driven Spanish League. While Valencia has made it this far, they also emerged from one of the easiest groups in the Group Stage. They also have failed to beat Getafe in domestic play three times since the New Year (0-2-1). Inter will run away with this one.
Inter 3-0 on aggregate
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AS Roma vs. Olympique Lyonnais
Lyon has been the story of the French top flight for the past five years. Roma wouldn’t even be here had they not been paired in the weakest group, and Juventus not been punished for fixing matches last year. I really don’t care who wins here, but Lyon has a better track record in the competition so I’ll pick them.
Lyon 2-1 on aggregate
So there you have it. The "1/8th-Finals" For no soccer analysis posts since the Beckham post, I'd say it's looking like an interesting last three months to the competition before the final in Athens. If nothing else, I'll bet this gets the rest of the YCS staff to post something.
Posts
2 comments:
Hey now, not only am I unfortunately aware of Linfield but I straight up don't like them. My job was in a building that was semi-connected to their stadium and just something about the roar of that crowd tipped me off that these people didn't know what the hell they were talking about. That and they caused a lot of traffic. And they killed all hopes of NI having a decent league by forcing Belfast Celtic to fold. Now that I've commented on one tiny little point of a long column I'll say the other 99% of it was pretty good too(but don't hold out hope for Celtic)
Corcoran
Great! Now let's hear from someone who hates NK Široki Brijeg!
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