I Think I'll Take That Bet

Now that the dust has settled from last week's catfight/"First and Ten"-a-thon/FIFA Women's World Cup, SI.com's Grant Wahl all but proclaims that the United States MEN'S National Team will win their first FIFA World Cup before the United States WOMEN'S National Team wins their third.

Wahl stops just shy of making the audacious to say the least claim on the back of this paragraph.
The U.S. men out-Brazil(ed) Brazil at the Under-20 World Cup this summer. The U.S. men are producing more talented players than ever before. Last year's World Cup results notwithstanding -- the U.S. men are a growth stock, a program on a slow but undeniably upward trajectory.

I'll go with him on that, but here's the problem with that turn of phrase. It's kind of like saying if I start walking north from Mexico City eventually I'll hit Canada. It's true, but that doesn't mean it will happen anytime soon. Despite the admittedly rapid rise of the sport in America on a proficiency level, youth level, and in public awareness over the last 10 years, the training, coaching, fan interest, and general player identification and grooming infrastructure is so far below the traditional world contenders like France, Germany, Brazil and the like that while they're on a climb, it could take a while to get to the point where the Yanks are legitimately mentioned among the favorites coming into a World Cup. (In 2006 they were mentioned as a "dark horse to win it" by ESPN, a tag which I thought was overwhelmingly generous.)

I think Wahl fails to realize just what an exclusive club World Cup Winners are. It's perhaps one of the most exclusive clubs in sports. Since the first World Cup in 1930, only 7 nations have won the World Cup (Brazil, Argentina, France, Germany, England, Uruguay, Italy). Those powers (except maybe England and Uruguay) aren't going anywhere and will be among the top dogs for years to come. Established international powers who have been in the game and succeeding for far longer than the US has are still without a World Cup. Portugal, Holland, Russia, Turkey, Spain, and Mexico are still sitting on ZERO titles. The USMNT has admittedly become the dominant regional power, but then again, teams like Tunisia, South Korea, and Australia are also dominant regional powers, and they aren't winning World Cups any time soon either.

Meanwhile, despite the USWNT's loss to Brazil in the recently concluded FIFA Women's World Cup, the Lady Nats are likewise at their core, a young team. The relaunch of a professional women's league in 2009 could do for the US Women's National Team what the launch of MLS in 1996 did for the Men's team, by giving it a shot in the arm. Players could finally hone their skills through regular meaningful competition. In fact, the new league might even help MORE than MLS helped the men because due to the lack of professional women's leagues around the world, the United States league, however low paying (rumored team-wide Salary cap of $1 million) may be among the highest paid in the world. Women's players from around the world could be coming to the US in the same way that men's players around the world go to Europe.

The tournaments themselves are slanted more heavily against the men winning a World Cup before the women. The Women qualify out of the North American region, where they more or less get a pass to the semifinals because there is not that much competition. The games are played in California in front of a crowd of pigtails and thundersticks. The men slog it out over two years of qualifying in blistering Latin American heat in front of hostile crowds in a much deeper talent pool. Their reward? A trip to the World Cup Finals where in some cases, one loss in group play against a collection of the world's best could mean the end of your tournament. The 32-team mens' tournament also contains a round of 16 knockout stage that the 16-team WWC (for now) does not.

Let's even look at the current rash of results. Before the loss to Brazil, the US Women had not lost in 51 straight games. That included matches against regional and world heavyweights. They bounced back from their loss to Brazil with a 4-1 annihilation of world power Norway in the third place game, and preceded the loss with a 3-0 destruction of rising power England in the quarterfinals. The men on the other hand are finally playing some top-flight opposition outside of qualifying and World Cups, but are in a bit of a slump; failing to get the victories in meaningful competitions and friendly exhibitions alike, and being outscored 13-4 in their last 5 games.

Even the suggestion that a US Women's team that is already among the world's best and will now be receiving more regular top-flight-competition will not get the requisite luck needed in cup tournaments before the Men's team crashes the exclusive cabal that is FIFA World Cup winners is laughable.