Make Believe: A-Rod passes Bonds in 2015

As both Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez are each four HR from career milestones, I've been thinking a little bit about the potential for A-Rod to hold the all-time HR record a scant decade from now. Thus, I spent a little time today on Baseball Reference and in my own imagination envisioning how it might happen. And frankly, if God loves baseball, it will.

Let's start with the current situation: A-Rod has 496 career HRs and 1437 RBIs. He's 31 years old. He can do it. Here's how:

Scenario #1: A-Rod keeps up his current pace for another 8 years. If so, he'll be sitting on 800 HRs and 2400 RBIs, both the best of all time. Maybe he can; maybe he can't. Jimmy Foxx is the second youngest player to reach 500 HRs, but he finished with only 534 career HRs as he slid off very quickly (possibly due to a drinking problem according to some 'expert' on Wikipedia). In the early 90's, you probably could have envisioned Frank Thomas breaking Aaron's mark... and then all the injuries came (or whatever caused him to fall off). But there are plenty of greats and not-so-greats that kept up their hitting stats through their 30's: Hammerin' Hank himself, Ted Williams, Willie Mays, Tony Gwynn and the likes of Craig Biggio, Harold Baines, Brian Downing, Edgar Martinez, Paul Molitor, Andres Galarraga, Reggie Jackson. Sure, not each of these guys was hitting 42 HRs and 120 RBIs per year, but they still show that ballplayers can still swing the stick by the time they hit 40 years of age.

Scenario #2: A-Rod matches Barry's totals, 1997-2007 (age 31-current), over the next ten years of his career. If so, A-Rod will be even farther ahead: 823 HRs (though less RBIs, only 2226). And that's after I've erased Bonds' 73 HRs for 2001, a year in which the 'cream' may or may not have accounted for all 73 HRs so we'll erase them all just to be sure.

Scenario #3: Nobody pays A-Rod the $80 million/year he'll want for the rest of his career, and he retires at age 33. Sha, right.

Sure, Barry Bonds may not retire for another two years, but even the most well oiled and marginally productive machines eventually are considered 'not worth it' by their clubs. And all careers must come to end (except Ricky Henderson's). Still, I can't see Barry Bonds hitting many more than 800 HRs in his career.

The future's never certain, but I for one will be ignoring Barry Bonds this month and will keep my eyes on A-Rod's "Chasing Barry" saga.