That Makes a Baker's Dozen

The finish line is November 18th at RFK Memorial Stadium.

As Major League Soccer begins its 12th league campaign, there are many stories that could be focused on, but most of the mainstream US soccer media understandably won't. They'll be too distracted by David Beckham's hair. Now while Beckham's transfer is a big story, it's hardly the only one, or even the biggest. The addition of expansion side Toronto FC puts the MLS brand north of the border for the first time. New owners in Toronto, DC, and Kansas City bring a new outlook and diversification to the league as their teams move forward. New coaches are taking control at Toronto, DC, and Chivas USA. Sponsorship deals including Herbalife’s multimillion dollar shirt sponsorship deal with Los Angeles Galaxy and BMO Financial Group’s deal with Toronto FC are bringing fresh cash into the league, and new stadiums in Toronto and Colorado are enabling teams to keep it. And of course there's the most publicized story of the most eventful MLS offseason; the Los Angeles Galaxy’s acquisition of David Beckham, which this MLS writer thinks is a drop in the bucket in the larger scheme of things.

But after all the off-the-field stories this past winter are concluded, there’s still a 30 game league schedule to play, and trophies to be won. The MLS Cup playoffs have been tweaked slightly this year, with teams playing unbalanced schedules, and a new rule that gives automatic playoff berths to the top 2 teams in each conference, then the next four best teams regardless of conference, perhaps allowing one conference to send 6 teams to the playoffs. So to start of the preview, let’s take a look at the Eastern Conference, which could conceivably do that.

In the East
Eastern Conference 2006 Finish: DC United, New England, Chicago, New York, Kansas City, Columbus
2007 Predicted Finish: DC United New England, Toronto FC, Chicago, New York, Kansas City, Columbus

In the East, DC United looked awfully good in their dismantling of Central American power CD Olimpia in the CONCACAF Champions Cup in February, and turned me into a believer with a solid fight against CD Guadalajara before falling 3-2 on aggregate. United have lost goalkeeper Nick Rimando to Salt Lake (although his understudy Troy Perkins is a more than apt replacement). Former wunderkind Freddy Adu was also lost to RSL and perhaps most importantly striker Alecko Eskandarian was lost to Toronto FC. To rebuild, United have signed Brazlian Luciano Emilio from CD Olimpia, and his performance in the Champions Cup (4 goals in 3 games) indicates that he may be a more than viable successor to Eskandarian. The key for DC is how well new coach Tommy Soehn will be able to command this group with the same authority that Peter Nowak did in leading them to an MLS Cup in 2004 without the personality conflicts that created locker room distractions for United in 2005, and the burnout of 2006.

New England Revolution is a question mark. Despite losing USA international Clint Dempsey to the English Premier League, they have retained most of the core team that has been to the MLS Cup Final the past two years. However, Joey Franchino is out for the foreseeable future to deal with his problems with alcohol, and Shalrie Joseph is demanding a trade. Taylor Twellman has been locked up with a new contract, and the Revs certainly have the talent to get back to the title game, backed by arguably the best goalkeeper in the league in Matt Reis. However, a summer filled with USA international matches may deplete their roster, as Reis, Twellman, Pat Noonan, and Steve Ralston all figure to get callups at some point for either the Gold Cup or Copa America or both.

Toronto FC certainly looks like a playoff team on paper. Skippered by coach Mo Johnston, who got a really raw deal in New York, and backed by 13,000 season ticket holders, Toronto could be poised to make a run like the 1998 Chicago Fire. Canadian international Jim Brennan has returned from England, and has been bolstered by some smart moves in the offseason, such as picking up DC United striker Alecko Eskandarian, Irish midfielder Ronnie O’Brien, and New England’s feisty Jose “Pepe” Cancela. Recent pickups like USA International Conor Casey from the German Bundesliga make this a team to be reckoned with. However, Toronto may too feel the bite of international callups, as their team is largely made of Canadian internationals. Toronto will likely lose 5 players in key positions (GK, back line, midfield) for a month for the Gold Cup. Canada being drawn into the Gold Cup’s weakest group will likely prolong their absence. It will be a very interesting summer on the shores of Lake Ontario.

Chicago Fire didn’t do much this past offseason until this week, and that may cost them come October. Salary dumps to free up room for a Beckham Rule player have left the Fire young, and ironically, without a Beckham Rule Player for the first two months of the season. After that time, Mexican icon Cuauhtémoc Blanco will join the Fire. Blanco is essentially regarded as the Dennis Rodman of Mexican soccer, and could be a blockbuster move or a huge blunder for the Harlem Avenue outfit. He has had some personality conflicts with players and coaches, a few knee problems in recent years, and is widely regarded as a cheap-shot artist. Blanco will be counted on to produce right away and earn his #10 jersey, reserved for the team’s playmaker. The Fire lost their two leading goalscorers in Nate Jaqua (L.A.) and Costa Rican international Andy Herron (Columbus), but the team returns a talented, young lineup that earned them their first trophy in 3 years last season. Chad Barrett will finally get to playserious minutes at forward in Jaqua and Herron’s absence. Sophomore Calen Carr also looks poised to pick up some solid minutes off the bench, and perhaps even start as an attacking midfielder alongside Blanco. The Fire are also starting anew between the sticks as 25-year old Matt Pickens takes over for aging veteran Zach Thornton (traded to Colorado), who didn’t play another minute after giving up a 50-yard strike from Dwayne DeRosario in a 2-2 tie last August. Youth is served in Chicago.The key to the Fire’s season will be if Barrett, The Brazilian attacking mid Thiago, and USA International Chris Rolfe can stay healthy for an entire year, something that has been hard to accomplish so far. With Jaqua and Herron’s departure, the Fire are not nearly as deep as they were last season.

RBNY frankly does not deserve to go to the playoffs. They lost Youri Djorkaeff and Amado Guevara. Their offseason pickups were lackluster at best (How long before Claudio Reyna’s knees are totally shot on the Giants Stadium artificial turf?). They also signed aging goalkeeper Ronald Waterus from Holland. Waterus will turn 37 in August, so I believe that they will be a bit slow on the line, which could lead to a lot of goals. But they still just might make the postseason, because frankly, there are not a lot of good teams this year. Colorado might pass them for the last playoff spot. So might RSL.

Kansas City and Columbus are shit this year. I will be very surprised if either of them make the Cup playoffs. Kansas City might make a charge and make the top 5 sweat a bit if they can get production out of an aging Jimmy Conrad and Kevin Hartman, or any production at all out of Eddie Johnson, but EJ seems to be more bust than boom at this time.

Out West
2006 Finish: FC Dallas, Houston, Chivas USA, Colorado, Salt Lake, Los Angeles
2007 Predicted Finish: Los Angeles, Houston, FC Dallas, Salt Lake, Colorado, Chivas USA

The big news of the offseason was naturally David Beckham’s move to Los Angeles Galaxy, but what the mainstream media forgets is that ONE PLAYER CANNOT CHANGE A TEAM, especially in a sport with 11 players on the field. Fortunately for the Galaxy, they are in very good shape, even without Beckham. The Galaxy will suffer through the midsummer National Team absences for Landon Donovan just like last year, but this year, they have added some key acquisitions not named David Beckham to help fill the void. They acquired Chicago Fire’s second-leading scorer in striker Nate Jaqua, left unprotected by the Fire in the expansion draft thinking he was en route to Europe. With Beckham coming stateside, Jaqua seemed to think he could do just fine domestically, and had Toronto trade him to LA. Also suiting up for the Victoria Street outfit is Colroado Rapids goalkeeper Joe Cannon, who shut-out English powerhouse Chelsea FC in last season’s All-Star game. These two pick-ups I feel are a much more pivotal on-the-field move for Galaxy than Beckham, although Becks certainly opens new revenue doors and has already paid for himself through LA’s shirt sponsorship deal with Herbalife (rumored to be worth $25 million for 5 years). LA also has a storyline this season as Cobi Jones, who broke in with the US National team in 1992 has announced he will retire at the end of the season. While I personally hope that last game is at Toyota Park on the last day of the regular season, LA has the depth this year that they lacked in 2006, and a domestic double is not out of the question.

Defending MLS Cup Champion Houston Dynamo looks on track for a solid sophomore outing. They were able to re-sign US international Brian Ching, and keep hold on Canadian international Dwayne DeRosario, staving off interest from Europe and Toronto FC. The only real significant loss they have had is Adrian Serioux in the back line to Texas Derby rivals FC Dallas, and may suffer because of it, but they are largely the same team that lifted the Alan I Rothenberg Trophy in Dallas’s home ground last November.

FC Dallas won the west last season but their midfield has been gutted with the departure of Ronnie O’Brien in the expansion draft to Toronto FC. Dallas still has a fearsome attack that includes USA international Kenny Cooper and Guatemalan international and Goal of the Decade-winner Carlos Ruiz. Dallas is poised to be a strong team, but their reign atop the west looks finished.

If the playoff format was the same as last season, RSL would make the playoffs, and who knows? They might even this year. But with the shift in playoff berths, all the power in MLS appears to be in the East, making one of those last at-large playoff berths so hard to snap up. Real has reunited Freddy Adu with his U-21 coach and brought in Panamanian international Luis Tejada, as well as brought in the very capable, if injury-plagued Nick Rimando from DC United to man the nets. This season could go either way on the Wasatch Front, but I’m optimistic on RSL.

RSL’s Rocky Mountain Cup rival Colorado Rapids are still anchored by some solid players, and they should get an attendance boost from moving into a new stadium, but they are still one of the lesser franchises in MLS. USA international Pablo Mastroeni brings some spark and flair to the Rapids, but despite a new stadium, new colors, new badge, and new parternship with London’s Arsenal FC, they’re still the “Crapids” and will likely miss the playoffs. Picking up Zach Thornton from the Fire was a good move, but Thornton is old and is definitely way past his prime and very out of shape, but anything’s better than an untested rookie after losing Joe Cannon to the Galaxy.

Rounding out the bottom of the conference is Club Deportivo Chivas USA. While young stars Sacha Klijestan and Jonathan Bornstein are coming into their own, the Goats will lack the veteran presence and goalscoring that Paco Palencia and Juan Pablo Garcia brought to the club. The acquisition of Amado Guevara from RBNY should help allay this, but Guevara has a rocky relationship with coaches, and could be a locker room liability. Plus many of his goals are scored on set pieces. The departure of head coach Bob Bradley, largely credited with turning around Chivas into a playoff team last year leaves Chivas with even further question marks.

SuperLiga Qualification
In addition to qualification for the playoffs, the four teams with the best records (regardless of conference affiliation) will also qualify for the 2008 SuperLiga competition, the championship of club soccer in North America (USA, Canada, and Mexico). This season, I see SuperLiga spots being grabbed by Los Angeles, DC, Houston, and New England

MLS Cup Playoffs
Los Angeles over RSL (West #1 vs. West #4)
Houston over Dallas (West #2 vs. West #3)
DC United over Chicago (East #1 vs. East #4)
Toronto over New England (East #3 vs. East #2)

Conference Finals
Los Angeles over Houston
DC United over Toronto

MLS Cup Final
Los Angeles over DC United