NFL Draft-Day One Thoughts
>> Saturday
After skillfully plastering my ass in front on the TV for eleven hours and change, I must make a few observations about today's selection meeting.
Big Winners:
San Francisco-A franchise already on the rise, the 49ers built on their momentum with a phenomenal draft day. Patrick Willis loves football, and that along with bringing his excellent athletic skills to the table makes him a tremedous addition to any ballclub. He should be a perennial Pro Bowler and the inside linebacker anchor of Mike Nolan's 3-4 defense. After his slide to spot 28, trading up and drafting a potential franchise left tackle in Joe Staley stabilizes a young offensive line. Despite having no second round picks, they picked up great values in the third round with Florida defensive end Ray McDonald and Washington State wide receiver Jason Hill. Both guys could be very solid NFL starters and represented excellent value in the 3rd round. New England will be dispappointed when their 2008 1st round acquired for Staley will be much lower than expected. Should they complete a proposed trade for Seattle receiver Darrell Jackson tomorrow, they will be in position to seriously contend for the NFC West title next season.
Cleveland-Welcome back to the NFL Cleveland. After a forgettable first eight seasons back in Cleveland that produced guys like Tim Couch and Courtney Brown, Phil Savage and Romeo Crennel have the Browns finally ready to take a big step forward. In most years, Joe Thomas would have a serious claim to the top spot on draft boards. He should be one of the best left tackles in league for the forseeable future, and along with the Jets D'Bricikishaw Ferguson lead the next generation of stud left tackles in the mold of Orlando Pace, Walter Jones and Jonathan Ogden. As I wrote last night, I really believe Brady Quinn outperforms #1 pick JaMarcus Russell and will be a steal at 22. While having a memorable draft day, Quinn's NFL career will greatly outshine today's dramatic fall. Second round pick Eric Wright could be answer at cornerback after the gruesome injury to Gary Baxter. While taking a risk with his character, getting a mid first round corner talent at pick 52 could make this a trifecta for the Browns should Wright stay out of trouble.
Other winners:
Carolina-While they could definitely considered as big winners, I'm not a huge fan of Beason. That said, their other three picks jump out as tremendous value picks. Dwayne Jarrett should be a very good redzone threat, and has the potential to develop into an 70-80 catch, 10 touchdown per year guy. Ryan Kalil will an anchor on the interior of the line, and could soon challenge Matt Birk and Olin Kreutz and the best center in the NFC. Charles Johnson has tons of potential, and is the type of third round pick teams covet. He could greatly outperform his draft position and be the strong starter opposite Julius Peppers at defensive end.
Indianapolis-While they have not made many notable draft picks since Dwight Freeney, this could be the draft that really builds a new foundation for the Colts. Anthony Gonzalez should be an excellent fit as their third receiver, and having a slot threat makes Peyton Manning that much more dangerous. Tony Ugoh is an excellent left tackle prospect, and should be the heir apparent to Tarik Glenn. At the end of the third round, they drafted excellent college players in Daymeion Hughes and Quinn Pitcock. While Hughes did not run well at the combine, his senior season with 8 interceptions proved he can the playmaker ideally suited for the Cover 2 defense. Pitcock, one of the lone returning starters on Ohio State's defense last year, had a nice senior season and should be a good rotational defensive linemen.
Minnesota-After taking the explosive Adrian Peterson, the Vikes got good value with Sidney Rice in the 2nd round and Marcus McCauley in the third. Rice, like Jarrett, should be a nice big receiving target and a threat in the red zone the Vikes sorely lacked last season. If McCauley plays to his potential, he could be a quality NFL starter and a nice addition to a secondary that needed some help. While they could look for a pass rusher tomorrow, they made three very solid picks today and added some much needed excitement to their offense.
New York Jets-After greatly overachieving last season, the Jets wheeled and dealed and wound up with tremendous football players in Darrelle Revis and David Harris. Revis, who they traded up to get at 14, should be a very good player who could develop into a valued cover corner. Harris, a steal in the mid second round, could be the second best linebacker in this draft. A great fit in the 3-4 at inside linebacker, Harris has a similar combination of football skills and athleticism as Willis. Playing with three other high draft picks at Michigan (Leon Hall, Alan Branch, Lamarr Woodley), I think Harris will the best pro career of the bunch.
Losers:
Miami-The decision to pass on Brady Quinn for Ted Ginn Jr. will haunt the Dolphins for many years to come. Badly needing a young quarterback to groom, they instead took a guy whose only value will be returning kicks for his first 2-3 years. While John Beck could become an adequate NFL starter, Quinn may be the franchise quarterback who a team builds around for a decade. Lorenzo Booker will be a nice third down back. However, his pick does not make up for passing on Quinn, and then having taking a low ceiling guy like Beck in round two.
Green Bay-While not in as dire need as Minnesota, the Packers badly needed to draft a potential game-changer or two on offense. Marshawn Lynch coming off the board at 12 set them back, but the could have taken guys like Dwayne Bowe or Greg Olsen and added a running back in round two. Instead, they took a gamble on a defensive tackle who missed his senior season. In the second round, they trade down and take another gamble on Brandon Jackson, instead of proven college guys like Tony Hunt or Kenny Irons, who they could have taken had they stayed at 47. In round three, they really reach on a kid from San Jose State when better values like Aundrae Allison, David Clowney, Courtney Taylor and Johnnie Lee Higgins were all still on the board.
While the Bears reached with their second round and two third round picks, getting a potential Pro Bowl tight end at 31 in Greg Olsen saves them from joining Miami and Green Bay as first day losers. However, should Olsen fail to live up to expectations, this may be the worst draft of the Jerry Angelo. Now, Angelo does very good on past day two's in picking up solid contributors in Nathan Vasher, Mark Anderson and Ian Scott.
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2 comments:
Here's my two cents on the Ted Ginn pick:
First of all, I don't watch a ton of college ball as you know, so I probably only saw the equivalent of, oh, three Ohio St. games last year. Having said that,
1) He is short. I realize that guys like Santana Moss and Steve Smith have overcome that limitation, but if Ginn is as unpolished at the position as everyone says, can he really overcome that in time to make him a viable receiver before his skills diminish?
2) If Miami or any team is looking at Devin Hester and saying, "I want one of those!" they're crazy and retarded. What Hester did last year was incredible, but you also need the ten other guys on kick coverage opening those seams, and people don't seem to talk about how well the Bears did that last year as much as everyone talks about Hester.
3) Once a guy like Hester's skills diminish even slightly (i.e. a 5% loss in speed/acceleration), it brings him back to the pack of very good players as opposed to once-in-a-lifetime phenom.
4) What Hester did last year was sort of a fluke. Will he ever run back seven kicks in a season again? Of course not. Even two or three is kind of a lot to expect. Look at the alltime great return men--Deion, Eric Metcalf, Sayers, Mel Gray, etc. Big runback totals simply don't happen on an every-year basis, and I'd argue that consistently outperforming average return guys by a substantial amount (say, 5 yards or so) is more the product of good kick coverage.
I get the whole "X-factor" threat for offensive sets, but ultimately, I guy will have to prove he has the skills to be more than a decoy or gimmick. You still can only line up eleven guys on offense. It sounds like Ginn is more advanced in that sense than Hester is (seeing as Hester didn't really play offense in college), but then again, this was the ninth pick.
Hopefully for Miami's sake, they think he can be a Santana Moss and not just Devin Hester. But I'm gonna guess this pick was motivated by that "I want one of those" mindset.
Ginn is nowhere near as developed as Moss coming out of college, and it took Moss three years or so to develop into a quality NFL receiver. Now, a team like Jacksonville who did not have many pressing needs could have taken in the first, since their offense only lacks a vertical passing threat. However, the Dolphins were drafting 9th for a reason, and a luxury pick like Ginn was totally foolish.
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