Why no one really reads FoxSports.com

Elliot Kalb of Foxsports.com has written a piece of amazing stupidity. He has taken the old saying that the only certain things in life are death and taxes, and was thinking that you could add Tiger Woods to that list. He then pulls an Alec Baldwin and proceeds to step WAAAAAAAAAAAAY outside his field of expertise to list about 10 SURE THINGS in sports, but many of them are flat out wrong.

Which leads me to ponder this question: Is there a more sure thing in sports than Tiger with a third-round lead? In addition to being perfect in the majors in that scenario, he's a impressive 37-3 on the PGA Tour when he holds at least a share of the lead going into the final round and 44-5 worldwide.

Well, what you've just said is that Tiger blows a late round lead a little more often than once in every ten attempts. If Tiger takes a lead into the Final round, is it likely he will win? Of course, but not a sure thing. Taking arguably the most successful golfer of the last decade and asking how often he blows a lead is a bad measuring stick in the first place. It doesn't count the times that he didn't have the lead, or when he missed the cut at the US Open. Only counting final round leads is like asking how many times did the 1996 Chicago Bulls blow a 20-point lead in the fourth quarter.

The bottom line: Woods doesn't blow leads late. He's an extraordinary closer, perhaps the greatest the sport (and maybe all of sports) has ever known.

Really, how differently does he play in the fourth round where he had the lead than in the first three rounds that got him there? Is he the best closer or just the best golfer over the four-day tournaments that he wins?

2. Adam Vinatieri kicking an important field goal
Really, kind of like his 1-for-3 performance in Super Bowl XXXVIII against the Panthers?

3. Mariano Rivera pitching in the major league baseball postseason
Rivera has an 8-1 record with a 0.81 earned run average and 34 saves. Even the lone loss (Game 7 of the 2001 World Series) was due more to a throwing error and a bloop hit than any real shortcoming on Rivera's part.

Rivera has impressive credentials, and has been most valuable to the Yankees at his position, but let's examine that inning (Which he claims is due to a throwing error and a bloop hit and not Rivera). Mark Grace led off with a hit. The throwing error was committed BY RIVERA. Rivera also gave up 2 more hits and hit a batsman before the game was over. Rivera certainly has been one of the most successful relief pitchers in baseball postseason history, but to claim that Rivera was blameless in 2001 is to ignore history.

6. No major college basketball team will go undefeated
Here's a sure bet. The last team to go undefeated was the 1976 Indiana Hoosiers. Bobby Knight won his first national championship with that 32-0 club. Since then, the most serious challenge since 1976 was when UNLV reached the national semifinals in 1991, at which point Grant Hill and his Duke teammates took care of the Running Rebels.

I'm not so sure that no major college basketball team will ever go undefeated again. Many teams go deep in the season before losing (St. Joseph's 2004) or lose only once before their elimination (Were it not for Dwyane Wade, 2003 Kentucky would have been in the Final Four with only one loss). Is an undefeated team unlikely? Of course, that's why it's special. Because it is a hard thing to accomplish and very rarely achieved...but it IS possible.

7. The Washington Nationals will not make the postseason

Not this year, yes. An ownership group independent from the rest of Major League Baseball only took control of the team last month. But while baseball is known for postseason dynasties (Yankees, Braves), it is also known for teams coming out of nowhere to reach the postseason (2003 Cubs, 2005 White Sox, 1997 Marlins)

8. The Detroit Red Wings will make the playoffs

This one is far less certain than the Nationals missing the Playoffs. The Red Wings have enjoyed an extraordinary run of success over the last 10 years, but past results are not indicative of future returns. And with a 31% turnover of playoff teams from 2004-2006, no one is safe.

9. Pat Riley will win the NBA Finals if he takes over a team as head coach in mid-season. Riley won the NBA Finals with the Lakers in this fashion. He won with the Heat in this fashion. It's a sure thing, especially if he has players like Magic Johnson, Kareem Abdul Jabbar, Dwayne Wade, and Shaquille O'Neal. Of course, it'll likely never happen again ... but that just means Riley will end his Hall-of-Fame career two-for-two as a replacement coach.

In other words, if Pat Riley takes over a GOOD team midseason, he will win a Championship, because it happened the TWO TIMES he did it. Let's see him take over a cellar-dwellar like the Atlanta Hawks or Portland Trail Blazers midseason and lead them to the promised land.

10. The MVP of the NFL will be either a quarterback or a running back
In the 52 years that the Associated Press has named a Most Valuable Player, a quarterback or running back has captured the award in 47 of the 52 years. Last year, it was running back Shaun Alexander. The year before that, it was quarterback Peyton Manning in his record-setting season. The MVP has gone to a quarterback or running back in each of the last 19 seasons.

Again, a little less often than once every ten years, a non-QB/RB will win the MVP if averages hold. Far from a sure thing. Just because those positions have won the MVP the last 19 seasons is meaningless. That's like saying in 1998 that the AFC would never win the Super Bowl because NFC teams had won it the last 13 seasons. Also, the prolificness of the award's reception among RBs and QBs might be more due to the fact that these positions are integral to any good team, and as such their achievements seem to get noticed more often than the play of say...a cornerback.