YCS Gold Cup Preview

The Gold Cup is simultaneously an incredibly easy and incredibly difficult tournament to handicap. In a very bottom-heavy region, 12 teams have earned the right through qualification to compete for the North, Central American, and Carribean championship in 6 American cities over the next month.

The United States and Mexico are the favorites, and all the smart money is on them meeting in the Final at Soldier Field. However, unpredictability reigns at times. Canada escaped the group stages in 2000 on a coin flip tiebreaker, then went on to win the entire tournament. Added to the complexity is that the top 8 teams advance to the knockout rounds (The three group winners and runners-up, with the two-best third-place teams,) so I have to look at the bad teams too. Well, let's take a look at the groups. Predicted order of finish below, Quarterfinal teams in italics.

Group A: Costa Rica, Canada, Haiti, Guadeloupe

If Costa Rica has long been the Larry to USA and Mexico's Moe and Curly, (You know, good, but not as good?), then Canada is their Curly Joe, really only making token appearances at the top of the pile. However, Les Voyageurs are a program on the rise, led by MLS Cup winners Dwayne DeRosario and Pat Onstad of Houston Dynamo. Bolstered with reinforcements from English Championship club sides, Canada should advance to the knockout stages, but beyond that it's anyone's guess. The Costa Rican "Ticos" are the only side in the group that has been a World Cup finalist in the last 25 years, and should consider it a disappointment if they do not reach the semifinals. Guadeloupe is making their first appearance in the Gold Cup. Guadeloupe suffers from the fact that it is an overseas departement of France, so most of its talented footballers would ply their trade in Europe, and could be called up to the French National team, leaving the islanders with the leftovers. Haiti is an iffy team that has shown flashes of brilliance in the past, but hasn't amounted to much recently. Playing their games in Miami though, Haiti could well pull an upset over Canada, and maybe get enough points to sneak into the quarterfinals.

Group B: USA, T&T, Guatemala, El Salvador
First round games to be played in Los Angeles and Foxboro, the United States is the favorite in this group, but could get stung by a T&T team that impressed at the World Cup last summer. The United States looked solid in a blowout win over China PR in San Jose over the weekend. They may be the deepest team in the tournament. There should be no trouble in getting to the quarterfinals after picking off Guatemala and El Salvador. T&T is the question mark in this tournament after the Soca Warriors nearly pulled out of the tournament for financial reasons. However, T&T has some solid MLS talent that should see them through. Guatemala is anchored by Carlos Ruiz (FC Dallas) and is a dangerous team, more so than Honduras, which should be on the outside looking in.

Group C: Mexico, Panama, Cuba, Honduras

With first round games played in the New York area and Houston, Mexico has a clear cut path to the Final. They're above and beyond the class of this group, as the most notable international success any of the remaining nations is Panama having finished second in the 2005 Gold Cup. Mexico is one of the favorites to win the tournament, but El Tricolores have not scored a goal against the United States on American soil in a decade. Honduras could score a berth in the knockout rounds, as could Cuba, but as always, the story with the Cuban team is "Who's going to defect?" While Cuba may not have as strong a team as some others, two third-place teams make the cut-off and get into the quarterfinals, and Cuba might just be better than El Salvador and Haiti, thanks to their relatively easy group.

The winner gets the ridiculously over-sized Gold Cup, and a berth in the 2009 Confederations Cup in South Africa.