Mock Selection Update-Part 3

These are my thoughts on how the remaining teams not yet in the field should be ranked as far as deserving an at large bid. I will also link individual posts I made in regards to DePaul and Drexel, two teams who I going away from the grain in my thinking about them.

Currently, we have 10 spots on the at large board that could potentially open up. Now, we have earmarked Air Force for one of those spots once it opens. That leaves nine more spots that could potentially be filled. Here is how I would rank the remaining legitimate at large candidates.

1. Syracuse-Their 10 Big East wins, which includes wins over Georgetown, at Marquette and over Villanova, should be enough for the Orange to get in. Their weak non-conference schedule has left them in this somewhat precarious spot, but the Orange will hear their name called Selection Sunday barring a loss to UConn and some other crazy events.

2. Xavier-Solid non-conferences wins over Villanova, VCU, Kansas State and Illinois combined with a strong close to the season have put the Musketeers in strong position to get an at large bid, even if they lose in the A-10 Tournament.

3. Texas Tech-That huge road win over Texas A&M sparked the General's crew to 5 wins in their last six, putting at them in 9-7 in the much tougher Big 12 South. The sweep over Texas A&M and win over Kansas gives the Red Raiders enough beef to counter a lack of quality non-conference wins.

4. Michigan State-The Spartans have played a really strong schedule and deserve to get rewarded with an at large bid despite an 8-8 Big Ten record. Strong neutral court wins over BYU and Texas combined with the huge win over Wisconsin make Michigan State a bonafide at large team despite one true road win. Still, it would be wise for them to take care of business against Northwestern in the Big Ten Tournament.

5. Stanford-The loss of star guard Anthony Goods has put them in this position. They were playing real well before he went down, so the Cardinal deserves an at large bid as long as he returns before the NCAA Tournament. The latest news has him being available for the Pac 10 and NCAA Tournaments. Should this be the case, the Cardinal will get in, just with a much lower seed than they would have had.

6. Old Dominion-A sweep over Drexel and the fact that they were two games better in conference has them ahead of the Dragons in my pecking order. Their win @Georgetown really carries the day for them, along with a very solid non-conference schedule that had close losses to Clemson(who was on fire at the time) and Winthrop.

These next three teams will be huge fans of Nevada, Butler and Memphis this week

7. Florida State-Like Stanford, I really think an injury derailed their conference record. Florida State was 5-4 in conference and playing really solid ball before Toney Douglas's hand injury. Close losses to BC and Maryland may have gone the other way had Douglas been available. With him in the line-up, the Seminoles have quality wins over Florida, Maryland, Duke, and Virginia Tech. Douglas has now returned from his hand injury, with the Seminoles getting a key weekend victory at rival Miami. A win over Clemson in the ACC Tourney may be what puts them over the hump.

8. Purdue-The Boilermakers have been awful away from home, but a non-conference win over Virginia combined with blowout wins over Michigan State, Illinois and Indiana have Purdue just sneaking into the tourney for me. Also, the Boilermakers did have very respectable showing at Ohio State and at Wisconsin, proving they can be competitve against good teams away from home. A win over Iowa in the Big Ten Tourney would go a long ways in helping them earn an at large bid.

9. DePaul-Here is a link to the longer post I made on why I feel DePaul deserves an at large bid.

I've talked ad nauseum about the Demons before, and they are currently my last team in the field. They do have little margin for error against Villanova, as getting a second win over them in New York would be the needed attention getter the Demons need right now. A win over Georgetown the next day would cement their at large bid.

Currently On the Outside Looking In

10. UMass-The Minutemen have quietly sneaked their way to 13 Atlantic 10 wins, tying with Xavier for the regular season championship. Their non-conference win at Louisville has really gained some momentum with the Cardinals Big East run. They remind me very much of the Utah State team that quietly got an at large bid last season. I would not want UMass as an 11-12 seed in my bracket. A run to the A-10 finals would greatly help, and if they lost to Xavier there, I think UMass has a legit case for an at large bid.

11. Drexel-Here is a link to a longer post made why I am strongly against Drexel receiving an at large bid.

The Dragons have been really strong on the road, highlighted by wins at Syracuse, at Villanova, and at Creighton. However, they also went 0-4 against the top two teams in the Colonial, VCU and Old Dominion, and finished 4th place in the 13th rated conference. They also have two real ugly losses, at RPI #197 William and Mary and at RPI #200 Rider.

12. Missouri State-They have a win over Wisconsin on a neutral court, and well a win over Wisconsin on a neutral court. The Bears backed that win up by going 0-5 against MVC leaders Southern Illinois and Creighton, with a blowout loss to Creighton in the MVC Tournament sealing their fate in my eyes. Also, a going-away loss to Winthrop in the Bracket Busters really hurt their at large hopes.

13. Kansas State-They won 10 conference games, but nine of those were over the bottom Big 12 teams. They do have solid wins over USC on a neutral court and at Texas. However, those are their only two wins of note. Their close loss against Kansas has likely put them in a position to make a long Big 12 Tournament run in order to get in.

14. Illinois-Their at large campaign reminds me of John Kerry's in 2004, emphasizing their lack of faults while not giving a real reason to include them. In all of their attempts to win a key game away from home, they came up short. A win over Wisconsin, at Michigan State, at Indiana, or at Iowa likely has them in the field. However, they have made it a habit of coming up short down the stretch. Solid computer numbers, but a lack of bigtime wins and mediocre road-neutral record gives me plenty of reason to leave them out. A win over Indiana in Chicago, and they can vault over a bunch of teams.

15. Clemson-Their victory over Virginia Tech gave their at large hopes a little boost. A putrid 4-9 in their last 13 games has left them in grave shape, but this is still a team capable of a run in the ACC Tournament. A win over Florida State would be a nice start, and following that up by upsetting North Carolina suddenly has them right back into the hunt for an at large. A 17-0 start should have them in the talks for a protected seed, but their season can still be salvaged.

16. Appalachian State-The Mountaineers had real bad luck having to play on College of Charleston's home court in the Southern Conference Tournament. The Mountaineers went 19-4 after Virginia transfer Donte Minter became eligible, with neutral court wins in the San Juan Shootout over Virginia and Vanderbilt. A home loss to RPI #299 Elon probably kills their at large chances, but this will be a very dangerous team in the NIT. If real funny things happen to the teams ahead of them, they may sneak in the field, but they likely needed the automatic bid.