Longer White Sox preview aka Bitter Rants from a Sox fan
>> Tuesday
Disclaimer: Whenever I start getting really mad at a Chicago team (see Da Bears) they generally pull a great season out of their ass.
Lets look at the opening day line-up
1B Paul Konerko: A consistently strong hitter save a horrid 2003, along with being an underrated defender. Should be good for another .290/.360/.540 type season. Should be a focal point for the Sox offense.
2B Tadahito Iguchi: A very complete, solid second baseman. Makes few mistakes in the field, should be good for another .280/.350/.430 season at the plate.
SS Juan Uribe: A .257 OBP last season. Basically, a blindfolded retard could go to the plate and have a .257 OBP. Erratic in the field, and his above-average power does not make up for having the worst pitch selection in baseball.
3B Joe Crede: Way overrated. While he may be a top 5 defender, his failure to get on base at a big hitting position makes him very average overall. His career year boasted an OBP of .323. Considering that his .506 slugging was an aberration, the Sox would have been wise to get rich off of Crede's perceived worth this offseason. Honestly, I think Josh Fields could match Crede's numbers at the plate, especially since he would get on base much more often.
RF Jermaine Dye: Had an unbelievable season last year with a greater than 1.000 OPS. While it may be easy to write this season off as a major fluke, Dye was on the way to producing similar numbers before a horrific leg injury in the 2001 playoffs. A minor dropoff should be expected, but a .290/.360/.550 type season does not seem unrealistic. His defensive skills have eroded a bit with age, but he's definitely servicable in right field.
CF Darin Erstad: Why? Seriously, Erstad is still cashing in on his major fluke 2000 season. While Brian Anderson may have been awful statistically, close observers of the Sox saw his potential and understand he gradually improved last year after getting comfortable at the major league level. Also, Anderson is very close to becoming an elite defensive outfielder, so some struggles at the plate can be made up for in the field. Plus, a team has no need for Erstad's .270/.320/.390 production. I think Anderson could match that right now, with the potential of a much better slugging percentage. Of course, Erstad fits the Ozzie mold of a "grinder"
LF Scott Podsednik: He will join Erstad and Uribe as wastes of space in the Sox line-up. Seriously, he has absolutely no value on a winning team. He has no power, does not get on base enough, and is dreadful in the field. The White Sox would be much better off with Fields, Anderson or Ryan Sweeney in left instead of this joker. Not to mention, his wife is way too hot to be with such a marginal player.
DH Jim Thome: An outstanding 2006, but it may be unrealistic to expect similar numbers. Thome still has one of the best eyes in baseball, putting up an outstanding .416 OBP last season. I would guess a .270/.390/.560 campaign in possible, and it's refreshing to see that the Sox have at least one guy who understands the importance of getting and staying on base.
C A.J. Pierzynski: For all of the controversy that surrounds him, he's a slightly above-average player. He's a free swinger at the plate, only once having a greater than .350 OBP in regular playing time. He does have above- average pop for a catcher, hitting 16 and 18 homers the last two seasons. A .280/.330/.435 line should be expected, as while as drawing the ire of opposing fans across the country.
The rotation will be extremely unpredictable:
Jon Garland has imitated a front of the rotation pitcher these last two seasons, but I'm still not totally sold on him. Other than his 18 wins, his 2006 was very mediocre statistically. I would predict a 4.50 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP, a regression back towards middle of the rotation numbers.
I will disagree with Vin about Jose Contreras. If his back injury that nagged him last season has healed, I look for a similar season to his excellent 2005. A 3.60-3.80 ERA and a 1.15-1.20 WHIP is definitely not out of the question.
The Sox should have just saved time and traded Mark Buehrle to St. Louis in the offseason. His stuff looked incredibly average last season, and guile and moxey will only go so far. An ERA in the high 4's and a WHIP above 1.3 can be predicted, along with the fact that he will be ridiculously overpaid in the offseason.
Javier Vazquez is a big-time wild card. He has the stuff to be a low-mid 3's ERA guy with a WHIP around 1.1-1.15. However, he has mightily struggled in the American League. His performance dramatically decreases as the game goes on, but I'm guessing that is more mental than physical. The Sox have gambled and signed him to a 3 year, 35 million dollar extension this spring. While I would definitely spend this money on him instead of Buehrle, this is a bit of a calculated risk. If pitching coach Don Cooper can reign him in, this could be a steal in the current market. However, shoudl Vazquez not turn things around, this can be an albatross of a contract that severly saddles the Sox.
Promising young lefty John Danks looks to have the won the #5 spot in the rotation. Obtained in the surprising trade of Brandon McCarthy to the Rangers, Danks has the potential to be a top of the rotation pitcher. He has a very good fastball and curveball, and plenty of time to eventually develop a third pitch. As with most young pitchers, his performance may be wildly inconsistent this year. Still, I was a big fan of his acquisition and think he will be a significantly better starter than McCarthy.
I give to it until July before Bobby Jenks is disposed as the Sox closer. Thankfully, the Sox have two other very solid options in hard throwing lefty Matt Thornton and Mike "Mac the Ninth" MacDougal. Young hard throwers Nick Masset and Andrew Sisco should have a chance to get significant relief duty. Crafty lefty Boone Logan has had an outstanding spring, but I'm still not sold not on him being a legit major leaguer.
On the whole, I predict an 80-85 win season and a 3rd place finish in the division between the Indians and Tigers.
The good news for the Sox is that they are positioned to be very good in the future. They have a lot of talented young arms in Danks, Gavin Floyd, Gio Gonzalez, Lance Broadway and spring training revelation Adam Russell. Outfielder Ryan Sweeney and Fields both project to be above average major league players. I am still high on Brian Anderson and hope that Ozzie hasn't ruined his promising potential. I just hope that Sox fans show the required patience, other than their call for Ozzie's dismissal (which I would now gladly support, even if it admits that assclown Jay Mariotti was right. Personally, catapulting both of them the hell out of Chicago would be the best option. Plus, I anxiously await the day of Ozzie Guillen on Baseball Tonight.)
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3 comments:
Supplementary material well-appreciated. Is there a Brewers counterpart in the works as well?
Anyway, point well taken on Contreras. When he struggled toward the end of last year, the issue, as I remember, was control more than it was movement and velocity, which would more likely indicate injury effects over long-term fatigue or aging effects. I could be wrong about this though.
I guess I don't expect a lot out of Contreras because he's getting up there--35 in Cuban Years, I believe he's listed at--and recovery from injury is no sure thing. And obviously, the age factor starts to accelarate the decline in numbers for most guys his age.
I think what you'll actually get is a really spotty type of season sort of like Maddux had last year. Location pitchers--which truly Contreras is even though he throws traditional "power" pitches--as they age or wear down throughout a season seem to have the "on" game / "off" game pattern to their performance. Contreras was already doing that last year. The breaking stuff will be sharp and well-located all of one start and then hang the next. It's a release-point issue. That's why you'll see the fastball start to slip also.
As far as the rest of the post, I'm pretty much with you on most of the guys. I'm actually a little less bleak on Buehrle that most people are. I think people tried to downplay the '05 fatigue factor a little too much, and Buehrle's the type of guy--because he puts so many balls in play--that can really get killed by bad luck, underperforming defenses, and very minute losses of movement. The sinker is a particularly funny pitch in how fatigue (both long- and short-term) will affect it. Basically, what I'm saying really long-windedly is that he may have a experienced a small setback in his own performance that blew up his numbers because of the type of pitcher he is. If he comes back strong and focused by the free agent money, he's a young enough guy that he shouldn't have experienced an irreversible fall-off in his game. Again, I'm not solely blaming fatigue, but 245 and 259 IP in '04 and '05 might've stretched his "work horse" reputation, as his sharp drop in Ks last year would indicate.
Contreras and Vazquez are the two guys who I'm probably higher than most because of their stuff, although I understand your point about Contreras. His actual age/wear is a big question mark and he could be damn near done. I'm just hoping his start of 2006 wasn't the aberration, and that it was his return in late May through the rest of the season.
With Buehrle, I hope your right, but I just worry about a guy like that starting to really fade ala Mark Mulder.
I'll finish a Brewers one tonight
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