Gyro-pean Glory, up for grabs in Greece

Following that lame pun, tomorrow Liverpool and AC Milan will meet at the Olympic Stadium in Athens in the 2007 UEFA Champions League Final. It will be exactly 728 days and only a short ferry ride across the Aegean from these two teams’ last meeting, in the 2005 Champions League Final in Istanbul. The two teams will even be wearing the same kit colors (Liverpool in red, Milan in white). In that historic and thrilling match, Milan took a 3-0 lead to half time, only to be undone by three goals in a span of six minutes to draw Liverpool even at 3-3. Liverpool went on to survive a late Milan surge, and eventually won the game on penalty kicks.

I went 1-1 in the semifinals , bringing my record on the competition to 18-12. I correctly called AC Milan’s upset of Manchester United , but boldly predicted Chelsea to break their Champions League Hex and go to the Final over Liverpool. Chelsea lost on penalty kicks at Anfield , thus bringing the number of picks in the knockout round where I have missed either because of PKs or away goals to five. Only one game to pick here. The winner gets European glory and to take home “the big-eared trophy” along with the title of Champions of Europe. The winner also receives a berth in the FIFA Club World Cup in Japan this December. As the token YCS soccer blogger, and fully aware that trying to pick games at this stage in the competition is really almost like flipping a coin (especially given Liverpool and Milan's similarities statistically), I will attempt to break down the Champions League Final.

GOALKEEPERS
Liverpool is backed by Pepe Reina, a hero for Liverpool after he stonewalled two of three Chelsea penalty shooters in the semifinals. Domestically, Reina started 35 of 38 Premiership matches, and recorded 143 saves (4.1 per game). In all competitions, Reina has only allowed 7 goals since mid-February (0.5 goals per game) including wins over Barcelona, Arsenal, PSV, and Chelsea. Milan counters across the pitch with Dida, the Brazilian international. Injury-plagued Dida has only started 25 Serie A matches this season for Milan, posting a 0.76 GAA. Dida is definitely the more experienced keeper, making the third-most appearances for Brazil among goalkeepers, but Reina has been a machine for Liverpool this season, and should a penalty kick occur, Reina is the keeper I would want in the nets.
EDGE: Liverpool

DEFENSE

Both teams have solid backlines, and are among the competition's leaders in terms of goals allowed per match (0.75 for Milan, 0.67 for Liverpool). The teams also hold similar statistics for cards issued, fouls committed, and ball possession, several stats I look at to get a sense of how a team controls a game. Jamie Carragher is an excellent man-marker and tackler who is also more than capable on the attack. He will appears to be Liverpool's best shot (Along with Jon Arne Risse) of containing Milan's strikers. Paolo Maldini and Cafu will answer for Milan's backline, but Maldini is getting old (he is nearly 40.)

EDGE: Wash

ATTACK

Liverpool is led by captain and England international Steven Gerrard, the hero of the 2005 Final. He has taken the fourth-most shots on goal of any player in the competition. Gerrard's strike partner Eric Crouch is likely the tallest player in the game, and could be a priceless asset in attempting to head crosses past a diving Dida. Crouch has scored 6 goals in Europe this season.

Milan is led up top by Alberto Gilardino, a young Italian striker who looks to be Milan's cornerstone for the future. Gilardino has scored 2 goals in 8 games this season in European competition. The Rossoneri's go-to man will likely be Brazilian attacking midfielder Kaka, who is the competition's leading goalscorer, finding net 10 times in 12 contests. The thing about Italian sides, especially a side like Milan is that they are very patient, poking and prodding untill a perfect opporuntity comes along, and then finish clinically; rather than just firing shots again and again.

Edge: Milan

INTANGIBLES

Domestically, Liverpool has in the words of Chelsea manager Jose Mourinho "Been playing testimonials (exhibition games) for weeks now." Having already locked up Champions League football for next season, but unable to win the league, Liverpool merely had to play out the string and could focus on the Champions League. Liverpool finished third in the English Premiership. Milan on the other hand have been playing their first team for most of the past few months as they worked to overcome an early point penalty and poor play to clinch a Champions League spot for next season, a feat only achieved on Sunday with Fiorentina's draw with Messina putting Milan 6 points clear with a match to go. There are some old legs in the red-and-black kits, and who knows how tired they may be.

Liverpool won their group with a game to spare, and in the knockout rounds have dismissed technically superior clubs in Barcelona and Chelsea. Milan has had a relatively easy path to the Final, playing the likes of Celtic and Bayern Munich before finally recieving a challenge in Manchester United. Milan has the motivation for revenge after their loss to Liverpool in the 2005 Final, but time will tell if this serves as motivation or distraction. While all players are professionals, every Milan player I've heard interviewed has mentioned "revenge."

Edge: Liverpool

So who's my pick to lift club soccer's most prestigious trophy?