Who's the Best?

While the words "Dream Final" often get tossed around, Wednesday's UEFA Champions League final in Rome comes as close to fitting the bill as any. Manchester United vs. Barcelona represents the two best teams from the two best national leagues in the world, boasting a cavalcade of stars, including arguably the two greatest players in the world (Man U's Cristiano Ronaldo and Barca's Lionel Messi). It is quite possible that Wednesday will see Ronaldo, Messi, Wayne Rooney, Samuel Eto'o, Thierry Henry, Dimitir Berbatov, and Carlos Tevez all on the field at the same time.

Naturally, the game will likely never live up to the hype.

After scouring the soccer internet mediasphere (real word?), the general consensus is that everyone is pulling for Barcelona, but that Man United just have too many weapons.

Barcelona reached the Final in dramatic fashion.

Down a goal, down to 10 men, on the road, and with second-half stoppage time ticking away against Chelsea, the Blaugrana looked finished. The West London crowd was already singing "We're going to Rome!" and were making plans for a holiday in the Eternal City. Then Barca scored to level the game at 1-1 and go through on the away goals tiebreaker. It was possibly the most dramatic finish to a European game I had seen since Man United's come-from-behind victory in the 1999 Champions League Final.

Man United reached the Final thanks to a rout of Arsenal in the Semifinal. The Red Devils are chasing their record-setting fourth trophy this season (Having already won the Carling Cup, English Premier League, and FIFA Club World Cup). Man United is also seeking to be the first team to retain the Champions League title since AC Milan pulled the feat in 1989 and 1990. If United walk out of the Stadio Olimpico with the trophy, they will be the first English team to repeat in this competition since Nottingham Forest in 1979 and 1980. Their lineup is a veritable gattling gun of firepower. I can't see Man U getting shut out in this final. Starting from that assumption, that means Barca is going to have to get at least 2 goals to win (or luck out on PKs).

However, if any team can pull that off, it is Barca. Their 1-1 scoreline over 180 minutes in the semifinals was the product of a number of factors Most notably the injury bug, and a Chelsea team that never dreamed of playing attacking football in the whole series, and reduced the game to a streetfight. Barca is the kind of team that would rather win a game 5-4 than 1-0. Their 104 goals scored leads the Spanish league, but their backline is more than capable as well. Their meager 34 goals surrendered also leads La Liga. However, Chelsea (despite not winning the series), gave Man United the playbook on how to neutralize Barca's attack. Foul Foul Foul.

I'm going to pick Man United to take the game. 2-1.

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YOU BLEW IT!!!!

If YCS were to start handing out a "Goat-of-the-week/month/year" award, it would be hard to top Liverpool's John Arne Risse. Liverpool is presently playing their archrivals Chelsea in a two-game, total-goals series to determine who goes to the Champions League Final next month.

Liverpool and Chelsea have met at this stage in the competition three times in the last four years, with the Reds playing Michael Jordan to the Blues' Patrick Ewing. With Liverpool winning 1-0 at home, four minutes of added time were tacked on. At 94:04, Risse dives into infamy.

Time expired seconds later.

The series is now level at one goal a piece, but goals scored on the road are the first tiebreaker, essentially making them worth double. Game 2 is next week at Stamford Bridge, Chelsea's home ground, where they have not lost in more than two years.

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Champions League Picks in 2 sentences

For my hastily-chosen group stage picks, I went 13-3. Now, in an ADD world, I'm essentially bringing each matchup for the Round of 16 down to 2 sentences.

Lyon (France #1) vs. Manchester United (England #2)

Best in France not what it used to be.

United just thrashed English title-rivals Arsenal 4-0.

Pick: United

Celtic (Scotland #2) vs. Barcelona (Spain #2)

Normally attacking Barcelona has struck for more than one goal only twice in last 10 games.

Normally defensive Celtic on the other hand has struck for 13 goals in last three games.

Pick: Celtic (Upset Special)

Liverpool (England #5) vs. Inter Milan (Italy #1)

Whenever I pick Liverpool to lose, they win, and vice versa.

Kind of hard to pick the Reds when they're falling out of relevance domestically and just lost to lower-division Barnsley.

Pick: Inter

Arsenal (England #1) vs. AC Milan (Italy #5)

Milan unbeaten in 8 of last 10, and the European champs always find a way to kick it into overdrive this time of year.

English leaders Arsenal are looking for a confidence boost after being blown out by Man U, but have the offensive firepower to make this series interesting.

Pick: Milan, but it may be decided AFTER 180 minutes...

Olimpiacos (Greece #1) vs. Chelsea (England #3)

No contest.

Olimpiacos' fairy tale run ends at Stamford Bridge.

Pick: Chelsea

AS Roma (Italy #2) vs. Real Madrid (Spain #1)

Madrid and Roma have both lost twice in last three.

Roma hadn't lost since October 2nd before that, while Madrid have lost three of last six.

Pick: Roma (Madrid has better players, but Roma is in better form)

Schalke 04 (Germany #5) vs. FC Porto (Portugal #1)

Only storyline is Porto returning to scene of 2004 European Cup triumph, held at Schalke's stadium. Porto will likely win again.

Pick: Porto

Fenerbahce (Turkey #1) vs. Sevilla (Spain #6)

Fenerbahce should take down struggling Sevilla.

But in Europe, anything can happen, so who knows?

Pick: Fenerbahce

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Gyro-pean Glory, up for grabs in Greece

Following that lame pun, tomorrow Liverpool and AC Milan will meet at the Olympic Stadium in Athens in the 2007 UEFA Champions League Final. It will be exactly 728 days and only a short ferry ride across the Aegean from these two teams’ last meeting, in the 2005 Champions League Final in Istanbul. The two teams will even be wearing the same kit colors (Liverpool in red, Milan in white). In that historic and thrilling match, Milan took a 3-0 lead to half time, only to be undone by three goals in a span of six minutes to draw Liverpool even at 3-3. Liverpool went on to survive a late Milan surge, and eventually won the game on penalty kicks.

I went 1-1 in the semifinals , bringing my record on the competition to 18-12. I correctly called AC Milan’s upset of Manchester United , but boldly predicted Chelsea to break their Champions League Hex and go to the Final over Liverpool. Chelsea lost on penalty kicks at Anfield , thus bringing the number of picks in the knockout round where I have missed either because of PKs or away goals to five. Only one game to pick here. The winner gets European glory and to take home “the big-eared trophy” along with the title of Champions of Europe. The winner also receives a berth in the FIFA Club World Cup in Japan this December. As the token YCS soccer blogger, and fully aware that trying to pick games at this stage in the competition is really almost like flipping a coin (especially given Liverpool and Milan's similarities statistically), I will attempt to break down the Champions League Final.

GOALKEEPERS
Liverpool is backed by Pepe Reina, a hero for Liverpool after he stonewalled two of three Chelsea penalty shooters in the semifinals. Domestically, Reina started 35 of 38 Premiership matches, and recorded 143 saves (4.1 per game). In all competitions, Reina has only allowed 7 goals since mid-February (0.5 goals per game) including wins over Barcelona, Arsenal, PSV, and Chelsea. Milan counters across the pitch with Dida, the Brazilian international. Injury-plagued Dida has only started 25 Serie A matches this season for Milan, posting a 0.76 GAA. Dida is definitely the more experienced keeper, making the third-most appearances for Brazil among goalkeepers, but Reina has been a machine for Liverpool this season, and should a penalty kick occur, Reina is the keeper I would want in the nets.
EDGE: Liverpool

DEFENSE

Both teams have solid backlines, and are among the competition's leaders in terms of goals allowed per match (0.75 for Milan, 0.67 for Liverpool). The teams also hold similar statistics for cards issued, fouls committed, and ball possession, several stats I look at to get a sense of how a team controls a game. Jamie Carragher is an excellent man-marker and tackler who is also more than capable on the attack. He will appears to be Liverpool's best shot (Along with Jon Arne Risse) of containing Milan's strikers. Paolo Maldini and Cafu will answer for Milan's backline, but Maldini is getting old (he is nearly 40.)

EDGE: Wash

ATTACK

Liverpool is led by captain and England international Steven Gerrard, the hero of the 2005 Final. He has taken the fourth-most shots on goal of any player in the competition. Gerrard's strike partner Eric Crouch is likely the tallest player in the game, and could be a priceless asset in attempting to head crosses past a diving Dida. Crouch has scored 6 goals in Europe this season.

Milan is led up top by Alberto Gilardino, a young Italian striker who looks to be Milan's cornerstone for the future. Gilardino has scored 2 goals in 8 games this season in European competition. The Rossoneri's go-to man will likely be Brazilian attacking midfielder Kaka, who is the competition's leading goalscorer, finding net 10 times in 12 contests. The thing about Italian sides, especially a side like Milan is that they are very patient, poking and prodding untill a perfect opporuntity comes along, and then finish clinically; rather than just firing shots again and again.

Edge: Milan

INTANGIBLES

Domestically, Liverpool has in the words of Chelsea manager Jose Mourinho "Been playing testimonials (exhibition games) for weeks now." Having already locked up Champions League football for next season, but unable to win the league, Liverpool merely had to play out the string and could focus on the Champions League. Liverpool finished third in the English Premiership. Milan on the other hand have been playing their first team for most of the past few months as they worked to overcome an early point penalty and poor play to clinch a Champions League spot for next season, a feat only achieved on Sunday with Fiorentina's draw with Messina putting Milan 6 points clear with a match to go. There are some old legs in the red-and-black kits, and who knows how tired they may be.

Liverpool won their group with a game to spare, and in the knockout rounds have dismissed technically superior clubs in Barcelona and Chelsea. Milan has had a relatively easy path to the Final, playing the likes of Celtic and Bayern Munich before finally recieving a challenge in Manchester United. Milan has the motivation for revenge after their loss to Liverpool in the 2005 Final, but time will tell if this serves as motivation or distraction. While all players are professionals, every Milan player I've heard interviewed has mentioned "revenge."

Edge: Liverpool

So who's my pick to lift club soccer's most prestigious trophy?

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Well, they knew he wasn't home...

Pepe Reina was the hero for Liverpool yesterday. The Spanish goalkeeper made several key saves in the semifinal at Anfield, and stopped two penalty kicks in the shootout that sent Chelsea packing, and saw Liverpool through to the Champions League Final in Athens later this month.

A night of celebration and revelry was in order, perhaps not unlike friend of YCS and Liverpool fan Dan Mach.

However, Reina returned to discover that he had been robbed.

I bet he never forgets to set the alarm again.

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Four Play

If there was any doubt that the best players in the world ply their trade in the English Premiership, surely it has been erased with this year's Champions League semifinals. Three of the four semifinalists are English sides, with AC Milan being the only continental representation. I rebounded nicely to post a 3-1 record in the Quarterfinals, with Valencia over Chelsea being my only miscue, and my second upset special to be dashed after 180 minutes as Michael Essien's strike pulled the Blues ahead at the stroke of full time. The wins put me at 17-11 on the season, with 6 of those losses coming in a bullshit Round of 16. Let's move onto the Semifinals. The pressure is on like it hasn't been before, with a trip to the Olympic Stadium in Athens for the Final the reward.

In one semifinal, Liverpool FC will take on Chelsea FC in a rematch of the 2005 Champions League Semifinal that saw Liverpool through to Istanbul on a controversial goal which may or may not have completely crossed over the line. Liverpool went on to defeat AC Milan in a dramatic Champions League Final.

Liverpool has done everything domestically they can. Currently in third place in the Premiership, they have already clinched a Champions League place for next season, but cannot earn anything more. The "Big-eared trophy" is the last one they can win this season, and the Reds are currently in a run of form that leaves them undefeated in their last 7 matches in all competitions, including their convincing Champions League Quarterfinal dismissal of Dutch Champions PSV Eindhoven.

Chelsea on the other hand is facing the ghosts of history. Among the other semifinalists, the Blues are the only side to have never won the European Cup. Liverpool has won it 5 times. Manchester United twice, and AC Milan 6 times. Despite a stacked roster, Chelsea has not been able to find a path into the Final the past two seasons, but this year could be the year. However, while Liverpool are able to put all their focus into winning in Athens next month, Chelsea is chasing an unprecedented "Quadruple" of trophies this season, and may be distracted by trying to make up ground on Manchester United in the Premiership. Chelsea was held to a 0-0 draw at Newcastle United last weekend, in doing so, blowing a golden chance to catch Man U. Chelsea waits early and scores late, as evident in their nail-biting escape against Valencia in the Quarterfinals. Chelsea's roster reads like a who's who of international football. If you remember hearing a player's name during the World Cup last summer, odds are they will be wearing blue. Ballack, John Terry, Didier Drogba, Andriy Schevchencko, Michael Essien, Peter Cech, Frank Lampard, the list keeps going. Chelsea and Liverpool split their meetings in the Premiership this season. Leg one kicks off midweek at Stamford Bridge in West London.

My pick: Teams drawn 2-2. Chelsea advances on either away goals or penalty kicks. Liverpool may have Athens as their sole focus, but Chelsea has been proving me wrong all competition, and it feels like their year.

The second semi-final pits Manchester United against AC Milan in the semifinals glamour matchup. Leg one kicks off midweek at Old Trafford, with United looking to gain passage to the Final for the first time since 1999. However, this semifinal could not have come at a worse time for United, as the injury bug has bitten the Red Devils and bitten them hard. Kieran Richardson and Rio Ferdinand went down last weekend in an ugly draw to Middlesbrough at home. Gary Neville, Mikael Silvestre, Nemanja Vidic, Park Ji-Sung, and Louis Saha are also out. The team is essentially Cristiano Ronaldo, Wayne Rooney and the rest of the gang. They may also be distracted by fending off Chelsea in the Premiership and FA Cup Final. For United to have a chance, they MUST deny Milan an away goal midweek. Hopefully that will buy them some time so the walking wounded can get back in time for the second leg at the San Siro in 2 weeks.

Milan appears the darkhorse, but is also seeming everyone's trendy pick to win the entire competition! The Rossoneri have survived their early season point deduction and are in third place in the Italian top flight. Quite a far cry from a team that was actually banned from the Champions League at the start of the season. The three times that Milan and United have faced off in the Champions League, Milan has never lost.

My pick: AC Milan 3-2. Man United is a very talented side, and Cristiano Ronaldo is arguably the greatest player in the world...if a serial diver. However, it's hard to win when your all-star side is going to be on the bench.

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Drawn and Quartered

Phew!

Man, am I glad I didn’t have any money riding on the First Knockout Round of the Champions League. Otherwise, I would be quite broke. YCS’s token soccer blogger went a PATHETIC 2-for-8 in picking those First Knockout Round series, which is BULLSHIT because four teams I didn’t pick (Liverpool, Bayern Munich, Valencia, AS Roma) only advanced on the away goals tiebreaker and the other two (AC Milan and PSV Eindhoven) only won by 1 goal on aggregate.

My upset special nearly came true as Scottish Champions Celtic FC; huge underdogs to AC Milan took the Italian superpower to extra time before a Kaka goal after 183 minutes of tied football did the Hoops in. Heartbreak. BULLSHIT!

Anyway, Manchester United and Chelsea kept me from looking like a complete fool, and I’m still 14-10 on the campaign, so I’m gonna give it another go for the Quarterfinals and try to bounce back. I guess it just goes to show you what a crapshoot top level soccer is. In competitions like the Champions League and the World Cup Finals, there really aren’t any BAD teams, just good teams and better teams.

AC Milan, Valencia, Liverpool, Manchester United, Chelsea FC, Bayern Munich, PSV Eindhoven, and AS Roma all survived the first knockout stage and move on to the Quarterfinals. With that, let’s go to the pairings.

AC Milan vs. Bayern Munich is probably the marquee matchup of the Quarterfinals, as both are storied clubs and both survived harrowing escapes to remain in the competition. Milan were held to 183 minutes of scorless football by Celtic, being pushed to extra time before finally escaping 1-0 on aggregate. Bayern rode out of the Bernabeu with a 3-2 victory over Real Madrid, but los merengues came back to level the series on aggregate at 4-4. Bayern prevailed though, by advancing on away goals 3-2. Milan is a classical Italian team with great finishers in Gilardino, Kaka, and Maldini. They may not have the speed they once had, but they're quite formidable still. Despite starting the season with an 8 point penalty, Milan are charging up the Italian Serie A table and are in position to clinch a Champions League place for next season.

Milan 3-2 on aggregate

Manchester United vs. AS Roma is an interesting match in that it will pit Manchester United starlet Christiano Ronaldo against wisened Roma veteran Frencesco Totti, an Italian international who could have played for any club in Europe, but instead remained with the heretofore mediocre Italian capital side who discovered him as a child. Roma would be my upset special in this case, and due to fixture congestion on Manchester United’s side, they might be able to swing the upset, but just to play it safe, I’m going with Man U because Scholes, Park, Solsjkaer, Van der Sar, and Saha are all in top form right now, and it’s only a matter of time before Wayne Rooney’s goal-scoring funk ends.

Manchester United 3-2 on aggregate

Liverpool vs PSV Eindhoven should have a touch of déjà vu, as it is a rematch from the group stage. Liverpool escaped the Philips Stadion with a draw before winning at Anfield in the group stage, and I see no reason to believe that Liverpool can’t get through to the semifinals here. PSV is injured, battered, and slipping in the Dutch top flight. Liverpool on the other hand are relatively healthy, and are playing their best football of the year following a 4-1 thrashing of Arsenal at Anfield over the weekend.

Liverpool 4-1 on aggregate

Chelsea vs. Valencia...hmmm...Of all the teams still in the competition, Los Che is the one who I think might have the best shot to take down Chelsea other than Manchester United. The Mestalla is an intimidating environment to play in, and for the most part Valencia match up with Chelsea very well. Where Chelsea has Valencia beaten and all other teams beaten is in their depth. Should a player go down to injury or suffer an off-night anytime in this series, Jose Mourinho has a wealth of talent to fill the void. Chelsea is a notorious Champions League choker though, having all the talent in the world won’t matter if you’re behind after 180 minutes. The upset special, going off nothing more than a gut feeling.

Valencia 2-1 on aggregate

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If only Robbie Gould had hit Rex Grossman with a golf club

It was widely reported last week that Liverpool's Wales international Craig "The Dennis Rodman of Welsh Football" Bellamy had drawn the wrath of team officials after a night of boozing in Portugal where LFC was training for their Champions League first leg match against defending champions FC Barcelona.

Allegedly, after Bellamy's teammate John Arne Riise repeatedly refused to enter a karaoke competition at Bellamy's request, Bellamy attacked Riise with a golf club in their hotel for humiliating him at the karaoke bar in front of the team.

In the Champions League knockout stages, it's a two-game total goals series, with away goals being the first tiebreaker, so scoring on the road even once is potentially a huge advantage should the series end in a tie. Liverpool won the game at Barcelona by a 2-1 scoreline, and the goalscorers were...Craig Bellamy (43') and John Arne Riise (74').

Cosmic.

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Sports World Nostalgia: Bobby Valentine

As bloggers--or writers (term used loosely) of any sort--it's sort of a minimal obligation that we do something hokey and festive on popular holidays. So to celebrate Valentine's Day, I thought I would pay tribute to a sports icon for whom the day is not named, but for whom it should be named: former MLB player and manager and Japanese League manager Bobby Valentine.

As a player, Valentine lasted eleven seasons in the bigs, appearing with five teams. After breaking in at the age of 19, "the Heartbreak Kid," as he should've been called, blossomed into a semi-regular player by the age of 22. As a member of the Dodgers in 1972, the versatile Valentine enjoyed his finest season, hitting .274 with 3 HR in 391 ABs while splitting time between 2B, 3B, SS, and OF.

Like most of us, Valentine had already seen his best days by the time he turned 23. By the mid-'70s, he'd been relegated to a sparingly-used utility man, a role he would continue to play until his retirement after the 1979 season.

During his playing career, Valentine garnered a reputation for being cagey, heady, and, above all, fond of watching games from the bench. So it was no surprise that baseballpeople quickly pegged the young Valentine as a future managerial candidate. By 1985, Valentine fulfilled this prophecy, becoming the interim manager of the Texas Rangers at the age of 35.

Valentine stuck with the Rangers, where he would oversee a string of 80ish-win seasons. His finest moment as Rangers manager came on June 11, 1990 when--just moments before the Rangers' game against the A's that evening--he told starting pitcher Nolan Ryan, "Hey, throw a good one tonight." Ryan obliged by pitching a no-hitter. It was undoubtedly Valentine's best single-game managerial perfomance of his young career. Never a one-trick pony, Valentine repeated the feat on May 1, 1991 when he told Ryan to no-hit the Blue Jays.

Valentine would remain with the Rangers until 1992 when he got his ass cahizzanned 86 games into the season.

By 1995, Valentine found himself itching to manage again, and, more principally, itching to earn a paycheck. That winter, Valentine accepted a job managing the Chiba Lotte Marines of the Japanese Pacific League. Despite the Marines' second-place finish that season, Valentine was fired due to personality conflicts and an admission that he picked his lineups from a hat when he gave up trying to learn his players' names.

The next season, Valentine was back in the majors as a coach with the Mets. He would find himself managing again before the 1996 finished when the Mets dumped manager Dallas Green with 31 games left. During his time with the Mets, Valentine's teams won back-to-back NL Wild Cards in 1999 and 2000, making the World Series the latter season and losing to the cross-town Yankees in front of lots of celebrities. What people will remember most about Valentine's Mets tenure, however, was his incognito appearance in the Mets' dugout after being ejected during a 1999 game (photo, top of page).

By 2002, the Mets had grown tired of not firing someone, and Valentine was released from his exile in Flushing Meadows. With nowhere else to turn, Valentine followed his heart back home to Japan, accepting his old job with Chiba Lotte for the 2003 season. He would win the Pacific League title with the Marines in 2005 and continues to manage there today.

Since going back to Japan, Valentine has crusaded for international competition among MLB teams and other countries' professional teams. Valentine was validated in his oft pooh-poohed assertions that Japanese League players could compete with MLB players when Japan won the inaugural World Baseball Classic last year on the strength of their calculated, stoic, Samurai-like, good-at-math, seaweed-digesting style, just as Valentine had predicted.

Whether or not Valentine ever makes it back to the majors, his legacy as a champion for the WBC and as a hilarious disguise artist is forever cemented in baseball lore. Also, his legacy as the inventor of the wrap is forever cemented in deli sandwich lore. But if you ask me, he's making that up. The filthy liar.

Anyway, we at YCS hope all of you had a wonderful Valentine's Day, and we hope when you curl up with that special someone tonight, you think of the man we honor on this day--former MLB manager Bobby Valentine. If not, we hope you think of Bobby the next time you're making love. And every time after that.

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Mama said knock you out!

It began on July 11th with teams that you've probably never heard of. (My apologies to all the Linfield FC and NK Široki Brijeg fans who read YCS. Your teams' 2006 Northern Irish and Bosnian league titles were well-earned.) Now it's February, and it's time for the knockout rounds of the UEFA Champions League to begin on Tuesday (Where I will be taking a day off work for an unrelated reason, and as such will be unable to post my preview then).

Likewise, since no one else on this staff would be able to show any analysis beyond that dumb secretary in the March Madness office pools who picks her winners based on how cute their mascots are, the job of handicapping the Round of 16 falls to me I guess (12-4 in the group stage). All matchups are on a two-game, home-and-home, total goals basis. In case of a tie, away goals are the first tiebreaker. Let's keep the discussion above the table.

The matchups

Liverpool FC vs. FC Barcelona
In a matchup of the last two Champions League winners, I like the Blaugrana. While Barcelona has been rocked by controversy after Samuel Eto’o refused to enter a Spanish League game over complaints of lack of playing time (How ironic.), they have at least maintained a somewhat consistent form in the rough-and-tumble Spanish League this season. Liverpool on the other hand have been maddeningly inconsistent.

Since the new year, the Reds have crushed Bolton 3-0, then followed that up with two losses to Arsenal at Anfield by scores of 3-1 and 6-3 respectively to be bounced from the League Cup and the FA Cup. They responded to that disastrous week by pasting Watford 3-0, knocking off defending champions Chelsea 2-0, then barely squeaking by relegation-bound West Ham United, a lackluster scoreless draw with crosstown rivals Everton, and a humiliating 2-1 loss to Newcastle United.

Barca: 2-1 on aggregate
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Celtic FC vs. AC Milan
Celtic is arguably one of the weaker teams still in the Champions League, and one of only three from outside the Big Five Leagues. The Bhoys have a near-insurmountable lead against weaker competition domestically, they went 3-3 in the group stage, never got a point away from Celtic Park, and had little offense to speak of (They only scored 6 goals in 6 matches). However, they are powered by Japanese international Shunsuke Nakamura, and backed by Polish international keeper Artur Boruc, who stopped a PK against Manchester United to put the Hoops through to the knockout stages.

If Celtic had a dream draw of the teams they could play in the 1/8-finals, it would have had to be AC Milan. The Rossoneri were rocked over the summer by the Italian matchfixing scandal and were initially banned from the Champions League before appeal. The uncertainty this brought to the team’s finances meant that they couldn’t spend any money in the summer transfer window. What follows is more or less the same team that lost the 2005 Champions League Final, only two years older. Milan has struggled domestically this season, currently sitting in 7th in the Italian top flight, 30 points behind rivals Inter Milan. Take away their point penalty to start the season, and they’re still only in fourth and 22 points behind Inter.Milan’s only notable Winter transfer pickup was Brazilian star Ronaldo from Real Madrid, who is more or less washed-up, slow, and overweight. He won't be able to play anyway since his play in the group stages leaves him cup-tied to Madrid.

Upset Special: Celtic: 1-0 on aggregate
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Manchester United FC vs. LOSC Lille
Manchester United. End of discussion. Lille is above and beyond the weakest team in the competition, currently 10-5-9 in the French top flight, 15 points off the leaders. The Red Devils are stocked with star power including Wayne Rooney and Christiano Ronaldo, who despite being a serial diver, is arguably one of the best players in the competition. United are en route to their first English Premier League title since 2001 domestically.

Man United: 4-1 on aggregate
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PSV Eindhoven vs. Arsenal FC
PSV is currently on top of the Dutch league, and Arsenal is 4th in the EPL. Arsenal definitely has more talent than PSV, and the Gunners are presently in a stretch of great form. Thierry Henry is lighting it up, and Jens Lehmann appears to have discovered his winning touch. Thomas Rosicky has proven to be a valuable pickup for the Gunners.

Arsenal: 3-2 on aggregate
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Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern Munich
If teams were as good as their histories, then this tie would be one for the ages. Madrid, the most successful team in Spain against Bayern, the most successful in Germany battling it out for European glory. However, both teams are shadows of their former selves. Oliver Kahn is still a great netminder for Bayern, but is not the Kahn that won the Champions League in 2001. Madrid likewise is a shadow of their “Galacticos” team. Zinedine Zidane, Luis Figo, and Ronaldo have all left for greener pastures or retirement. David Beckham is on his way to the United States, and Madrid frankly isn’t very good this year. However, they still have enough talent to eke past a Michael Ballack-less Bayern squad who is falling rapidly in the Bundesliga standings, but probably not enough talent to make it to the Semifinals.

Real Madrid: 2-2 on aggregate (Madrid advances on away goals)
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FC Porto vs. Chelsea FC
Yea, I guess there’s kind of a storyline here as Chelsea boss Jose Mourinho returns to play the club he led to a UEFA Cup title in 2003 and a UEFA Champions League title in 2004, but that’s really it. Chelsea has too much firepower to let Porto through. The Blues’ goalkeeping woes could provide enough room for an upset by the Dragons, but I wouldn’t count on it. Chelsea likewise has a lackluster record in this competition, but both years they lost to the eventual champion (Liverpool 2005, Barcelona 2006). I can assure you, FC Porto is not going to win the Champions League this season. Smart money’s on Chelsea.

Chelsea: 3-1 on aggregate
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Internazionale vs. Valencia CF
Inter is running away with the Italian title. Valencia is currently sitting in fourth place in a parity-driven Spanish League. While Valencia has made it this far, they also emerged from one of the easiest groups in the Group Stage. They also have failed to beat Getafe in domestic play three times since the New Year (0-2-1). Inter will run away with this one.

Inter 3-0 on aggregate
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AS Roma vs. Olympique Lyonnais
Lyon has been the story of the French top flight for the past five years. Roma wouldn’t even be here had they not been paired in the weakest group, and Juventus not been punished for fixing matches last year. I really don’t care who wins here, but Lyon has a better track record in the competition so I’ll pick them.

Lyon 2-1 on aggregate

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So there you have it. The "1/8th-Finals" For no soccer analysis posts since the Beckham post, I'd say it's looking like an interesting last three months to the competition before the final in Athens. If nothing else, I'll bet this gets the rest of the YCS staff to post something.

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