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YCS Flawed Stats/Info Analysis: Part 2135143463463434

SI.com seems surprised that LA Galaxy midfielder David Beckham is nowhere near the list of the highest-paid players in the game today. Beckham's salary ranked 44th in the world, at a little over $7 million per year. The defending World Player of the Year, Brazil's Kaka earns twice as much plying his trade at AC Milan.

However, there is a key difference. Beckham's salary is only the tip of the iceberg. Part of Beckham's contract with MLS was that he would control his image rights, enabling him to keep his endorsement revenue, and earn a percentage of sales of LA Galaxy #23 jerseys. Those shirts are among the highest-selling in the world.

Under many European contracts,* these image rights and jersey sales go to the club, not to the player. So while Becks may make less than Kaka, his contract situation is MUCH better, and Becks is not going to the poorhouse any time soon.

* I cannot confirm if this is the case with Kaka's contract, but it would not surprise me.

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There Must Be Something In the Water Out In Cali

Rumors are rife around American soccer that former Portuguese captain Luis Figo is coming to MLS to join his former Real Madrid teammate David Beckham in Los Angeles. However, there is the slight matter of the salary cap to consider. Beckham eats up 400k and Landon Donovan eats up about 900k per season. Small potatoes for sports, but a pretty sizeable chunk of LA's salary cap (About 2.5 million per team).

So to free up some space, yesterday the Galaxy dealt goalkeeper Joe Cannon (250k) to the expansion/Cleveland Browns-rebooted San Jose Earthquakes for cash. While this does free up some cap room to potentially sign Figo, I am really puzzled by this series of moves. There must be something in the water on Victoria Street or something LA Galaxy GM Alexi Lalas knows about that no one else knows about.

First of all, if the rumors are just rumors, then why deal away the one bright spot and one consistent performer during last year's Beckham Circus? Cannon is easily the best goalkeeper in the league, and any team wishing to improve has to start with improving the back line and then move forward. The Galaxy are going to have to improve by building a solid team throughout the midfield and backline, not by signing aging stars.

If Cannon's dealing IS to clear up cap space to potentially sign Figo, then two scenarios emerge, one in which Los Angeles convinces Figo to sign for WAAAAAAAAAAY less than he's probably worth on the market (6 figures or less). This would be a feat in itself, as there are several other leagues around the world (Mostly in Asia and the Middle East) who also offer retirees one last cash grab before packing it in.

Under the second scenario, they can pay Figo whatever they want, but to do that, they must acquire a second Designated Player slot from another team through a trade. That potentially puts Landon Donovan on the trade block. As much as I rag on the guy for mailing it in in big games and not pushing himself at the next level, he's still one of the best players in MLS, and has been the face of the Galaxy for the past 3 years. The only other scenario now that Cannon is gone would see LA depleted, shipping off either years worth of draft picks or their entire team and starting over with fresh faces.

Either way, it will be a team of nobodies plus Luis Figo's old (age 35) legs and David Beckham. LA could be decimated for years to come. As for this year, I'm trying really hard to see how LA is going to make the playoffs this season, but so far, it is looking doubtful.

This doesn't even make sense as a league conspiracy to stock the Galaxy and turn them into a superclub on the calibre of Real Madrid or Manchester United. Figo, despite his age, would still probably be the second-most-well-known player in MLS, after Beckham.

Last season, several teams where Beckham visited noticed a "Beckham Bounce" in attendance whenever the Galaxy played there. (ie: New York draws and average of 15k fans, but drew 50k for the 5-4 instant classic with the Galaxy last summer). Looking at the history of the Beckham Bounce, (and the smaller "Blanco Bounce" for whenever Chicago Fire visited an away stadium with their Mexican star Cuauhtemoc Blanco), wouldn't it make sense to put Figo on another team, to add a "Figo Bounce"? There are presently two markets in MLS with large Portuguese populations who have not used the DP rule yet, Toronto and New England. What gives?

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Smoldering Beck-age; a legitimate analysis

As in "wreckage."

It's been some amount of time since David Beckham's 2007 MLS season drew to a close. Now that the dust has settled and the doomsday predictions and knee-jerk reactions have fallen by the wayside, it seems only fair that since I did a preview piece to the start of the Beckham era, it seems only fair that I do some sort of wrap-up piece to the first season of "Beckhamania."

The first thing I want to say is, I saw this coming. The other writers on this blog know me well enough to know that I'm kind of a dick when I think I'm right, and I'm an even bigger dick when I'm validated. Sure, I foresaw the inability of Becks to meet the Bristol Hype Machine. That was easy to call, you say? Well, that post enables me to hide in a little less shame from my MLS season preview, where I very incorrectly predicted the Galaxy would win the MLS Cup. (Los Angeles is presently 4-11-5, a mark good enough for last place. They're not eliminated from the playoffs yet, but it's not too big a stretch to imagine the postseason without Becks, Landon, Cobi & Company.)


So what happened? Who screwed up? In a nutshell, everything happened, and everyone screwed up, and in the end, just about everyone suffered.

MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
The first place to lay blame is at the swanky new office on 5th Avenue in New York City, home of the MLS League offices, and Commissioner Don Garber. In a move to be all things to all owners, MLS arranged a schedule that was backloaded with games for the Galaxy (They still have two matches in hand on every other team in the league). Basically, the league office knew there would be a demand for Becks, both in LA (To justify increases in season ticket prices for a team that missed the playoffs last year) and around the league (to justify bundling lackluster midweek contests into "Beckham Packs" to milk the demand.

The David Beckham Roadshow started shortly after he arrived.

It started with Becks being trotted out like a dalmatian at a dog show for the ESPN cameras back in July, a game where he made a token appearance in a meaningless friendly against Chelsea. Despite the irrelevance of the game, he sustained a hard tackle from a Blues defender that most certainly aggravated his ankle injury, which from medical reports, was seemingly held together with cobwebs and prayers. This set his recovery back, forcing LA's #23 to miss games in Dallas, Toronto, Colorado, New England, and two in Los Angeles. The League bet high on 23 White, and needed to recoup.

THE LOS ANGELES GALAXY (GM Alexi Lalas, Head Coach Frank Yallop)
When all was said and done, David Beckham made appearances in three MLS games (@New York, @DC United, Chivas USA, and two SuperLiga games (DC United, Pachuca). In those games, he made a valiant effort to rescue an LA team with a troubled midfield and a decimated back line. But it was not enough. Aside from a SuperLiga Semifinal victory over DC United, the Galaxy won only one game with Beckham on the roster (0-5-1 in MLS, 3-2 in SuperLiga). Pundits will point to this as a failure on Beckham's part to "elevate" the play of the Galaxy.

Sadly, Beckham actually did raise the Galaxy's level of play. The Galaxy's record is more a testiment to the same flawed premise that built Beckham's Real Madrid teams in the early part of the decade. "Sign a bunch of stars, throw them together in the same color shirt and hope they win games." Signing internationals and retaining veterans chewed up LA's already limited salary cap space. The resulting lack of cash left the Galaxy unable to sign or retain players in stop-gap positions, like the midfield and on the back line. Goalkeeper Joe Cannon was the best keeper in the league last year. He pitched a shutout against Chelsea's first team in the All-Star game, yet routinely gave up crooked number scorelines every night thanks to defensive pairings that were routinely overmatched. That falls to the GM, Alexi Lalas, and I would not be surprised to see him packing his bags in the offseason after failing to put together a playoff team for the past two seasons.

Coach Frank Yallop played the hand he was dealt. He had a lousy team with no depth, a bunch of washed-up money-pits (Cobi Jones, Abel Xavier, etc.), and as a result was forced to play Beckham more than he probably would have had the Galaxy not been bleeding goals, not producing anything on the offensive end and desperate for points in a crowded MLS Cup Playoff race. While he's not entirely to blame, he contributed to Becks' demise in his own way.

STEVE McCLAREN (English National Team Coach)

Beckham's play in the August game against DC United I largely attribute to the fact that England coach Steve McClaren was in the boxes that night at RFK Stadium. Beckham had been under pressure to perform in England's European Championship campaign, which had fallen on hard times (perhaps ironically after new England coach McClaren dropped Beckham from his England squad last fall.) With Beckham wanting to break back into the English squad, and McClaren needing European victories to save his own ass (or arse?), Beckham was forced to accelerate his "recovery" to meet the English FA's needs. And it's not just Beckham who's been forced to play through sidelining injuries. Liverpool midfielder Steven Gerrard played for England in their recent 3-0 win over Israel despite a broken toe. I don't want to hear one more person say that soccer players are pansies.

DAVID BECKHAM

Beckham himself is to blame, largely for neglecting his own health and fitness. Beckham was trying to be all things to all people, which is admirable, but here it was just not plausible. He wanted to be the celebrity everyone knew he would be, the leader everyone thought he could be, the ambassador-for-the-sport he thought he could be, and the England leader he hoped his coach would want him to be. Beckham's last act of hubris and perhaps utter neglect for his fitness was playing 90 minutes on the Giants Stadium field turf on Saturday, flying to London on Sunday (arriving Monday), playing 90 minutes in an intense international friendly against Germany on Wednesday, flying back to Los Angeles (only an 8-hour time change) to play in the LA Derby that Thursday night. A few days later, Beckham was on the bench, ice around his knee and his face in his hands, perhaps contemplating what might have been if he hadn't written checks to Steve McClaren and his body couldn't cash. From the Galaxy (July-August '07), to Real Madrid's Spanish season (July '06 to May '07) to England's World Cup bid (May-July '06) to Madrid's prior season (July '05 to May '06), Beckham never really got any time off to heal from the nicks and dings that players accumulate over time.

ESPN

Not just the Bristol-types, but the entire national sports media, who expected Beckham to be the "savior of American soccer," totally neglecting that MLS as a whole does not need saving (average attendance up, median attendance up, % of games under 10,000 fans WAY down, % of games with more than 20,000 fans WAY up) as well as failing to research basic aspects of the sport [On PTI, they were apparently unaware that you can play for a national team (England) and a club team (LA).], and forgetting the fact that the man is not a machine. If Kobe got hurt, it would be "Kobe's out 6-8 weeks," not "Why isn't Kobe playing? The fans bought tickets to see Kobe." Of Beckham's appearances, let's look at the television situation. Bold = Becks plays.

Chelsea FC (ESPN2)

Superliga: Pachuca (Telefutura)

Superliga: CD Guadalajara (Telefutura)

Superliga: @ FC Dallas (Telefutura)

@ Toronto FC (ESPN2)

@ DC United (ESPN2)

@ New England Revolution (No ESPN)

Superliga: DC United (Telefutura)

@ RB New York (Fox Soccer Channel)

Chivas USA (ESPN2)

@ Colorado Rapids (No ESPN)

Superliga: Pachuca (No ESPN)

As you can see, in the 6 games Beckham appeared in, 4 were positioned on a national English-language soccer broadcast. Only two of the games in the Beckham era did not appear on some form of national TV. To say that media pressure didn't play a factor I think is naive, especially for a league looking to muscle its way into the American mainstream, and a network looking for a return on its investment. (ESPN, FSC, and Telefutura all paid rights to MLS for the first time this year).

While the Beckham experiment met a premature end, the international profile of MLS has been significantly raised, allowing a crop of electric players to enter the league. Cuauhtemoc Blanco, Guillermo Barros Schelotto, Luciano Emilio, Juan Toja, Carlos Pavon, Juan Pablo Angel, Denilson, and many other new international players may not be here were it not for the Beckham experiment. Next season, after some rest and relaxation (and a thrilling Becks-less finish to the 2007 season), we'll get to see what a healthy Beckham can do in a maturing league.

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Trees Falling All Over the Forest

But because the game was on FSC, nobody saw it. However, the 66,000+ at Giants Stadium saw what was probably the best game in MLS this year as Red Bull New York beat LA Galaxy 5-4 Saturday night.

--The game featured 9 goals (and several near-goals)
--There were 7 ties/lead changes.
--David Beckham made his first MLS start, played the full 90, and notched two assists. From what I hear he is a pretty decent footballer.
--Up-and-coming stars like 18-year old Josimer Altidore (RBNY), Former EPL standout Juan Pablo Angel (RBNY) and Honduran striker Carlos Pavon (LAG) all had great perfromances.
--Fast, flowing, attacking soccer
--Goals from 2002 USA World Cup heroes Landon Donovan (LAG) and Clint Mathis (RBNY). Mathis's goal was an absolute golazo.
--Largest crowd ever for an MLS game at Giants Stadium, and the atmosphere was electric, despite all the soccer moms who were there just to see David.

I'm trying to link to the highlights. Just watching them this morning, it felt like I was watching Barcelona-Real Madrid, Lazio-Roma, Celtic-Rangers, Man U-Liverpool or any other big-time world rivalry. I knew I missed something very special last night.

Red Bull New York 5:4 Los Angeles Galaxy

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Beckham threatens to be a pussy

There are several reasons that soccer (or as those crazy Europeans call it, football) will not succeed in the U.S. But one thing that certainly does not help is Beckham potentially sitting out his much-anticipated debut because of an ankle injury.

The ankle swelled up during the flight from London to Los Angeles last Thursday and despite a weekend of massage and treatment, Beckham could not take a full part in Galaxy's open training session at the Home Depot Center last night in front of around 2,000 fans.

Sorry Posh Spice's husband, but in this country we play through the pain. If there's one thing American sports fans love, it's toughness. Whether it's Byron Leftwich being carried down the field with a broken leg, or Michael Jordan's famous flu, we want to see athletes that are fucking committed to their teams and their sport, and play injured and/or sick. We sure as hell don't want to see athletes that puss out in big moments.

Now I don't know the details of soccer and how such an injury would affect a player, but that doesn't really matter because most American sports fans are in the same boat as me. And this boat sees a swollen ankle as a pretty weak excuse to stay at home and sip champagne when an entire country has promoted your arrival with millions of dollars. Whether the standards are fair or not, the future of American soccer depends on them.

Sorry, but if Beckham doesn't play any impact he might have had is going to be severly reduced. The only chance for the U.S. to give a damn about soccer within the next decade is for Beckham to pla on Saturday, injured or not.

And of course, I personally could give a fuck less either way, because I can't imagine myself ever being entertained by a soccer game.

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Despite Apperances to the Contrary, I Am Not Joining the David Beckham Hype Machine

I'm just saying...prepare to be let down by the hype that's certainly on its way, if not already here.

If the mainstream US sports media knows how to do one thing with respect to soccer in this country, it's over-hyping things. I only need to point at the 2006 US World Cup team and the last four years of the Freddy Adu era to illustrate that point (although Adu has been playing out his damn mind at the U-20 World Cup in Canada, where the US plays Uruguay in the second round this week).

And it's happening again with David Beckham's arrival later this week. I seem to recall warning of this back in January.

With Beckham's arrival, even if you personally aren't watching, I imagine many ESPN-watchers will be tuning into their first MLS games ever with Beckham in a Galaxy shirt expecting to see world-beating performances. And perhaps that will happen. Colombian international Juan Pablo Angel has lit the league on fire (a league-leading 9 goals in 10 games) since leaving English side Aston Villa for New York. Perhaps Beckham will do the same, as he was arguably in top form leading Madrid to their first Spanish League title in 4 years in June.

But there's also a pretty good chance that you won't see some performances worthy of anything resembling top-flight soccer; and that's not Beckham's fault. At the All-Star Break, Los Angeles is currently mired at the bottom of the table with a record of 3-5-4, 13 points. That's a mark good enough for 12th place out of 13 teams. In the second half, it doesn't get any easier. In an effort to ensure tranquility among the league's owners, the schedule was structured this season to ensure that a healthy Beckham would visit each of the League's 12 other teams. As such, Galaxy still have to play 11 of their 15 road away games. Add into that fixture congestion with Galaxy's involvement in SuperLiga, the US Open Cup, and friendlies against Chelsea, Tigres, and Vancouver Whitecaps, and you end up with an overstretched team whose lack of depth has already been made quite obvious.

Even with recent additions like the signing of Honduras's Gold Cup star Carlos Pavon, the return of Landon Donovan from international duty, and the arrival of ex-Portuguese international Abel Xavier, the Galaxy are still not a very good team, and will face an uphill battle to make the playoffs. It's not an impossible task, but it's a tall order, and I think there's more bad soccer in front of LA before any kind of championship soccer. The hype machine will plow through every city Beckham visits, and if the Galaxy don't make the playoffs, the "Around the Horn" types will likely brand the move as a failure, a wild goose chase, and perhaps as "another reason why soccer will never make it in America."

Just letting you know now so you're not surprised later...

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