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Even the crazy optimist of a Marquette homer in me will admit to this season being mildly disappointing, but at least we're not Syracuse right now, being at the peril of the selection committee to just be invited to the tournament. They may have won the battle on Saturday, but I'll gladly claim victory on the season as a we look at a 5-7 seed and they just hope to have a seed next to them.
Read more...With the NCAA Tournament approaching and few words of motivation from my fellow YCS staffers, I am making my long anticipated return here. Of course, it would be favorite conspiracy theory subject: cronyism on the NCAA Tournament selection committee. When looking to see which bubble teams make it and which have to settle for the NIT, here would the guide to see the teams that have a little something in their back pocket.
Kentucky, Florida, Ole Miss: SEC commissioner Mike Slive on the committee. While all three will probably not make it, I expect Slive to hardball for at least two of them, with the former two being the likely benefactors.
Kent State: Their AD Laing Kennedy should ensure the Golden Flashes an at large spot if they need one. Win the MAC tourney, and what should be an 11-12 seed will likely be a 9-10.
Ohio State: While most rational fans want to see as few Big Ten teams as possible, a win over Michigan State this weekend may wrap up a bid for the Buckeyes thanks to AD Gene Smith serving on the committee. The Big Ten always gets the benefit the doubt, and Smith will likely get the job done again.
VCU: Unlike Kent State, I have feeling that last year's Cinderella may need an at large, as they will struggle to get by a desperate and talented George Mason squad playing for their lives. As a parting gift season, 2007 committee chair, Virginia AD Craig Littlepage, saw his Cavs receive an incredibly undeserving four seed. This year's chair, George Mason AD Thomas O'Connor, could receive the parting gift of a Colonial team receiving an at large bid for the third straight season.
New Mexico, UNLV: After receiving the monumental gift of an at large spot for Air Force two years ago, the Falcons actually got snubbed last season. As a return favor, look for Utah AD Chris Hill to potentially get both of these teams in (along with an inflated seed for BYU).
Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon: UCLA AD Dan Guerrero got the job done in getting Stanford an undeserved berth last season, and I look for him to get at least two, if not all three of these teams in this time. In a perfect world, Oregon sweeps the Arizona schools this weekend to get to 9-9 in conference, with the Arizona schools taking care of business at Oregon State. Arizona's 8-10 conference record will be overcome by their top rated SOS.
Villanova: To make up for last seasons screwjob of Syracuse, the Big East may be given a favor in a spot for Villanova. UConn Ad Jeff Hathaway has likely been given his marching orders by Big East commissioner Mike Tranghese, and eight needs to be enough for the mega league.
Of course, there have to be victims to suffer the potentially unfair consequences. Teams like St. Joseph's, UMass, Illinois State, Maryland, and Texas A&M could be the wrong end on the political spectrum here and be out of luck.
We have finished our work, and here is our complete breakdown of seeds and final bracket. BYU is the biggest pain of the ass in history of man to bracket.
We now have completed the selection and seeding of teams. In a last minute change, we voted Arkansas in the field, Air Force out of it. Personally, I think both make it in real life(With a little help from their friends on the real committee), although neither really deserve it.
Here is what our final at large board looks like
:Arkansas, Arizona, Boston College, Butler, BYU, Duke, Drexel, Georgia Tech, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisville, Marquette, Maryland, Michigan State, Nevada, Notre Dame, Old Dominion, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Southern Illinois, Syracuse, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, UCLA, USC, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Washington State, Wisconsin, Xavier
We also made some modifications in seeding, moving Florida up to one seed, Kansas down to a 2. In the end, we had Texas A&M as the last 2 seed, ahead of Memphis. We moved the good guys down to a 6 seed, Virginia Tech up to a 5. We moved Arizona up to a 6 seed, BC down to a 7. We moved Winthrop up to a 9 seed, Xavier down to a 10. We moved VCU up to a 10 seed, Syracuse down to an 11
.Here are our final Seeds:
One Seeds:
1. Ohio State
2. UCLA
3. North Carolina
4. Florida
Two Seeds:
5. Kansas
6. Wisconsin
7. Georgetown
8. Texas A&M
Three Seeds:
9. Memphis
10. Oregon
11. Pittsburgh1
2. Washington State
Four Seeds:
13. Southern Illinois
14. Texas
15. Maryland
16. Louisville
Five Seeds:
17. Notre Dame
18. Tennessee
19. UNLV
20. Virginia Tech
Six Seeds:
21. Marquette
22. Virginia
23. USC
24. Arizona
Seven Seeds:
25. BYU
26. Duke
27. Vanderbilt
28. Boston College
Eight Seeds:
29. Butler
30. Nevada
31. Creighton
32. Kentucky
Nine Seeds:
33. Villanova
34. Michigan State
35. Indiana
36. Winthrop
Ten Seeds:
37. Xavier
38. Georgia Tech
39. Texas Tech
40. VCU
Eleven Seeds:
41. Syracuse
42. Purdue
43. Old Dominion
44. Drexel
Twelve Seeds:
45. Gonzaga
46. Arkansas
47. New Mexico State
48. Wright State
Thirteen Seeds:
49. George Washington
50. Davidson
51. Holy Cross
52. Miami-Ohio
Fourteen Seeds:
53. Oral Roberts
54. Long Beach State
55. Pennsylvania
56. Albany
Fifteen Seeds:
57. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
58. Belmont
59. Niagara
60. North Texas
Sixteen Seeds:
61. Weber State
62. Eastern Kentucky
63. Central Connecticut State
64. Jackson State
65. Florida A&M
Here is our final projected bracket:
Because of BYU, we had to often break the unwritten rule of no regular season match-ups in the first two rounds. Also, because of BYU's seed, a 7, we have them in a Thursday-Saturday pod, but had to put them in a Friday-Sunday regional. This won't happen in real life, but we got sick of dealing with BYU and we all collectively hope they never make the field again.
South Region-San Antonio
New Orleans
1. Florida vs. 16. Eastern Kentucky
8. Nevada vs. 9. Indiana
Spokane
4. Louisville vs. 13 Miami-Ohio
5. Virginia Tech vs. 12. Wright State
Spokane
3. Oregon vs. 14. Long Beach State
6. Marquette vs. 11. Drexel
Chicago
2. Kansas vs. 15. Belmont
7. Boston College vs. 10. Xavier
East Region-East Rutherford
Winston-Salem
1. North Carolina vs 16. Central Connecticut State
8. Creighton vs 9. Michigan State
Lexington
4. Texas vs. 13. Davidson
5. Notre Dame vs. 12. Arkansas
Sacramento
3. Washington State vs. 14. Oral Roberts
6. Virginia vs. 11. Syracuse
Columbus
2. Wisconsin vs 15. North Texas
7. Vanderbilt vs. 10. Texas Tech
Midwest Region-St. Louis
Chicago
1. Ohio State vs. 16. Jackson State/Florida A&M
8. Butler vs. 9. Villanova
Winston-Salem
4. Maryland vs. 13. George Washington
5. Tennessee vs. 12. New Mexico State
Lexington:
3. Memphis vs. 14. Albany
6. Arizona vs. 11. Old Dominion
Buffalo
2. Georgetown vs. 15. Niagara
7. BYU vs. 10. Georgia Tech
West Region-San Jose
Sacramento
1. UCLA vs. 16. Weber State
8. Kentucky vs. 9. Winthrop
Columbus
4. Southern Illinois vs. 13. Holy Cross
5. UNLV vs. 12. Gonzaga
Buffalo
3. Pittsburgh vs. 14. Penn
6. USC vs. 11. Purdue
New Orleans
2. Texas A&M vs. 15. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
7. Duke vs. 10. VCU
After finally being done with Saturday night's meeting, here is an update of our work, complete with my comments as always.
A grueling five-hour meeting just ended, with the committee filling the remaining at large spots and temporarily seeding the 5-12 lines.
The at large debate was a tough one, especially with there actually being more deserving teams than spots this season. In our first vote, Michigan State and Xavier were added to the large board. In the next vote, Syracuse and Texas Tech received spots on the at large board. For the final spot at the time, Purdue joined the at large teams.
After voting these teams five teams in, we decided to move Air Force off the at large board and back onto the nomination board. Then, we had a vote for the potential last three spots on the at large board, with two of those being contigency spots should Arkansas and NC State lose in their conference tournament finals. Old Dominion finished first in this vote, and received an unconditional spot on the at large board. Our first contigency team will be Drexel, the other Air Force.
Our final at large board looks like this:
Arizona, Boston College, Butler, BYU, Duke, Florida, Georgia Tech, Indiana, Kansas-Texas loser, Kentucky, Louisville, Marquette, Maryland, Michigan State, Nevada, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Ohio State-Wisconsin loser, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Southern Illinois, Syracuse, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, UCLA, USC, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Washington State, Xavier
Contigency Spot 1: Drexel
Contigency Spot 2: Air Force
The following teams just missed making our at large field: Illinois, Stanford, Arkansas, Kansas State, Florida State
Personally, I would have Illinois swapping places with Drexel. While I think Illinois is a really boring, average basketball team, it's hard taking the 4th place team in the Colonial over them.
We also seeded lines 5-12 tonight. Here they are:
Five Seeds:
17. Notre Dame
18. Tennessee
19. UNLV
20. Marquette
Six Seeds:
21. Virginia Tech
22. Virginia
23. USC
24. Boston College
Seven Seeds:
25. Arizona
26. BYU
27. Duke
28. Vanderbilt
Eight Seeds:
29. Butler
30. Nevada
31. Creighton
32. Kentucky
Nine Seeds:
33. Villanova
34. Michigan State
35. Indiana
36. Xavier
Ten Seeds:
37. Syracuse
38. Georgia Tech
39. Winthrop
40. Texas Tech
Eleven Seeds:
41. VCU
42. Purdue
43. Old Dominion
44. Drexel (Assuming They Get Contigency Spot)
Twelve Seeds:
45. Gonzaga
46. Air Force (Same as Drexel, assuming they get contigency spot)
47. New Mexico State
48. Wright State
We will do plenty of moving of seeds tomorrow. I would vote for either Texas A&M or Memphis to take Pitt's spot on the 2 line. I think BC as a six is a bit too high, with Arizona deserving a 6 ahead of them. I would prefer Nevada or Butler to Vanderbilt on the seven line, but it seems like our committee likes Nevada and Butler on the 8 line. I would put Gonzaga on the 11 line, Drexel the 12. Should Arkansas win the SEC Tournament tomorrow, I would have them a 10 seed or so. NC State would likely be an 11-12 seed if they win the ACC Tournament.
Appalachian State, a fringe bubble team, has purchased an ad in the Indianapolis Star newspaper to vouch to their case for an at large bid. With the real selection committee meeting in Indianapolis, they feel this could curry favor and attention to them.
Read more...Here's an update from tonight's meeting:
Tonight, we started the meeting by eliminating teams from our nomination board. After recent losses in their conference tournaments, Georgia, Michigan, San Diego State and Washington have been eliminated from contention for an at large bid.
Currently, we have 17 teams left on the nomination board:
Appalachian State, Arkansas, Clemson, Drexel, Florida State, Illinois, Kansas State, Michigan State, Mississippi, Missouri State, Old Dominion, Purdue, Stanford, Syracuse, Texas Tech, West Virginia, Xavier
With Nevada losing, there are 17 teams left for 7 potential spots. Another at large spot may be gone should Florida lose in the SEC Tournament. With the chaos in a lot of these conference tournaments, we postponed further at large voting until tomorrow.
Although this is a subject to change, we have slotted the top 16 teams our on S Curve. This will likely change because of the remaining conference tournaments, but as of now the 1-4 seeds are the following
One Seeds:
1. Ohio State
2. UCLA
3. North Carolina
4. Kansas
Two Seeds:
5. Florida
6. Wisconsin
7. Georgetown
8. Pittsburgh
Three Seeds:
9. Texas A&M
10. Memphis
11. Washington State
12. Oregon
Four Seeds:
13. Southern Illinois
14. Texas
15. Maryland
16. Louisville
Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, UNLV and Virginia were the teams up for the vote for spots 13-16, and will be held over for the next vote. A group of another five teams, which includes Marquette along with Butler, BYU, Tennessee and Nevada will likely figure for the five and six seeds. Honestly, I think that is a little too high for BYU and Butler. I currently have Butler a 7 seed, BYU an 8 seed.
Tomorrow night, we will work on the remaining at large spots, and potentially seed up until the 12 line. The rest will be left for Sunday afternoon. This is the farthest behind we have ever been with the at large selection process, but a lot of that has do with the craziness in the conference tournaments.
Last night's meeting was pretty quiet, with the only notable event being eliminating Bradley and Oklahoma State from the nomination board.
With today's loss to Villanova, DePaul has slipped out of my field, likely for good barring seriously strange events. Despite the game being fairly close, DePaul's lackluster performance today told me all I needed to know. When fighting for your at large lives, you need to play with a lot more desperation.
Here is my current ranking of teams not yet in our field.
Should Safely Get In:
1. Syracuse
2. Xavier
3. Texas Tech
4. Michigan State
5. Stanford
6. Old Dominion
Big Fans of Memphis and Nevada:
7. Florida State
8. Purdue
Need Some Serious Help:
9. UMass
10. Missouri State
11. Drexel
12. DePaul
13. Kansas State
14. Illinois
15. Clemson
16. Appalachian State
These are my thoughts on how the remaining teams not yet in the field should be ranked as far as deserving an at large bid. I will also link individual posts I made in regards to DePaul and Drexel, two teams who I going away from the grain in my thinking about them.
Currently, we have 10 spots on the at large board that could potentially open up. Now, we have earmarked Air Force for one of those spots once it opens. That leaves nine more spots that could potentially be filled. Here is how I would rank the remaining legitimate at large candidates.
1. Syracuse-Their 10 Big East wins, which includes wins over Georgetown, at Marquette and over Villanova, should be enough for the Orange to get in. Their weak non-conference schedule has left them in this somewhat precarious spot, but the Orange will hear their name called Selection Sunday barring a loss to UConn and some other crazy events.
2. Xavier-Solid non-conferences wins over Villanova, VCU, Kansas State and Illinois combined with a strong close to the season have put the Musketeers in strong position to get an at large bid, even if they lose in the A-10 Tournament.
3. Texas Tech-That huge road win over Texas A&M sparked the General's crew to 5 wins in their last six, putting at them in 9-7 in the much tougher Big 12 South. The sweep over Texas A&M and win over Kansas gives the Red Raiders enough beef to counter a lack of quality non-conference wins.
4. Michigan State-The Spartans have played a really strong schedule and deserve to get rewarded with an at large bid despite an 8-8 Big Ten record. Strong neutral court wins over BYU and Texas combined with the huge win over Wisconsin make Michigan State a bonafide at large team despite one true road win. Still, it would be wise for them to take care of business against Northwestern in the Big Ten Tournament.
5. Stanford-The loss of star guard Anthony Goods has put them in this position. They were playing real well before he went down, so the Cardinal deserves an at large bid as long as he returns before the NCAA Tournament. The latest news has him being available for the Pac 10 and NCAA Tournaments. Should this be the case, the Cardinal will get in, just with a much lower seed than they would have had.
6. Old Dominion-A sweep over Drexel and the fact that they were two games better in conference has them ahead of the Dragons in my pecking order. Their win @Georgetown really carries the day for them, along with a very solid non-conference schedule that had close losses to Clemson(who was on fire at the time) and Winthrop.
These next three teams will be huge fans of Nevada, Butler and Memphis this week
7. Florida State-Like Stanford, I really think an injury derailed their conference record. Florida State was 5-4 in conference and playing really solid ball before Toney Douglas's hand injury. Close losses to BC and Maryland may have gone the other way had Douglas been available. With him in the line-up, the Seminoles have quality wins over Florida, Maryland, Duke, and Virginia Tech. Douglas has now returned from his hand injury, with the Seminoles getting a key weekend victory at rival Miami. A win over Clemson in the ACC Tourney may be what puts them over the hump.
8. Purdue-The Boilermakers have been awful away from home, but a non-conference win over Virginia combined with blowout wins over Michigan State, Illinois and Indiana have Purdue just sneaking into the tourney for me. Also, the Boilermakers did have very respectable showing at Ohio State and at Wisconsin, proving they can be competitve against good teams away from home. A win over Iowa in the Big Ten Tourney would go a long ways in helping them earn an at large bid.
9. DePaul-Here is a link to the longer post I made on why I feel DePaul deserves an at large bid.
I've talked ad nauseum about the Demons before, and they are currently my last team in the field. They do have little margin for error against Villanova, as getting a second win over them in New York would be the needed attention getter the Demons need right now. A win over Georgetown the next day would cement their at large bid.
Currently On the Outside Looking In
10. UMass-The Minutemen have quietly sneaked their way to 13 Atlantic 10 wins, tying with Xavier for the regular season championship. Their non-conference win at Louisville has really gained some momentum with the Cardinals Big East run. They remind me very much of the Utah State team that quietly got an at large bid last season. I would not want UMass as an 11-12 seed in my bracket. A run to the A-10 finals would greatly help, and if they lost to Xavier there, I think UMass has a legit case for an at large bid.
11. Drexel-Here is a link to a longer post made why I am strongly against Drexel receiving an at large bid.
The Dragons have been really strong on the road, highlighted by wins at Syracuse, at Villanova, and at Creighton. However, they also went 0-4 against the top two teams in the Colonial, VCU and Old Dominion, and finished 4th place in the 13th rated conference. They also have two real ugly losses, at RPI #197 William and Mary and at RPI #200 Rider.
12. Missouri State-They have a win over Wisconsin on a neutral court, and well a win over Wisconsin on a neutral court. The Bears backed that win up by going 0-5 against MVC leaders Southern Illinois and Creighton, with a blowout loss to Creighton in the MVC Tournament sealing their fate in my eyes. Also, a going-away loss to Winthrop in the Bracket Busters really hurt their at large hopes.
13. Kansas State-They won 10 conference games, but nine of those were over the bottom Big 12 teams. They do have solid wins over USC on a neutral court and at Texas. However, those are their only two wins of note. Their close loss against Kansas has likely put them in a position to make a long Big 12 Tournament run in order to get in.
14. Illinois-Their at large campaign reminds me of John Kerry's in 2004, emphasizing their lack of faults while not giving a real reason to include them. In all of their attempts to win a key game away from home, they came up short. A win over Wisconsin, at Michigan State, at Indiana, or at Iowa likely has them in the field. However, they have made it a habit of coming up short down the stretch. Solid computer numbers, but a lack of bigtime wins and mediocre road-neutral record gives me plenty of reason to leave them out. A win over Indiana in Chicago, and they can vault over a bunch of teams.
15. Clemson-Their victory over Virginia Tech gave their at large hopes a little boost. A putrid 4-9 in their last 13 games has left them in grave shape, but this is still a team capable of a run in the ACC Tournament. A win over Florida State would be a nice start, and following that up by upsetting North Carolina suddenly has them right back into the hunt for an at large. A 17-0 start should have them in the talks for a protected seed, but their season can still be salvaged.
16. Appalachian State-The Mountaineers had real bad luck having to play on College of Charleston's home court in the Southern Conference Tournament. The Mountaineers went 19-4 after Virginia transfer Donte Minter became eligible, with neutral court wins in the San Juan Shootout over Virginia and Vanderbilt. A home loss to RPI #299 Elon probably kills their at large chances, but this will be a very dangerous team in the NIT. If real funny things happen to the teams ahead of them, they may sneak in the field, but they likely needed the automatic bid.
This update shows where exactly we are at right now in the whole process.
The ballots have been tabulated, and the following teams made the at large board.
Arizona, Boston College, Butler, BYU, Duke, Florida, Georgetown, Georgia Tech, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, Marquette, Maryland, Memphis, Nevada, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oregon, Pittsburgh, Southern Illinois, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, UCLA, UNLV, USC, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Washington State, Wisconsin
BYU, Georgia Tech and Villanova were voted onto the at large board in the first round of voting tonight to join the original 31 teams on the at large board. As soon as a spot on this board opens up, Air Force will join this group.
These teams are also still in consideration for an at large bid:
Alabama, Appalachian State, Arkansas, Bradley, Clemson, DePaul, Drexel, Florida State, Georgia, Gonzaga, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas State, Michigan, Michigan State, Mississippi, Missouri State, Oklahoma State, Old Dominion, Purdue, San Diego State, Stanford, Texas Tech, UMass, VCU, Washington, West Virginia, Xavier
Of these teams, Michigan State, Stanford, Syracuse and Xavier were all under consideration for the at large board spots that went to BYU, Georgia Tech, Villanova and Air Force. They will all be part of our next vote once spots on the at large board open. If things go as planned, 10 more spots on the at large board could open up. We'll meet again tonight to further discuss at large teams and potentially pare down the nomination board.
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