I think it's safe to say, after four weeks, that we can officially tell which teams are for real, which teams are too week-to-week to gamble on, and which teams I can safely bet the rest of my student loan refund money against. I think I figured it out last week, when I had my first winning week of the season after a wretched start to the season that involved two "FML" weeks and a week of focusing on my fantasy team.
Here are my picks for the week and we'll reevaluate after the week.
Jacksonville -2 over Buffalo
I wouldn't touch this game, except that two points over any one as bad as the Bills is hard to pass up. Two shitass teams with high school-level quarterbacks and woeful offensive lines. If you need a third game in a parlay, the Jags might be your pick.
Tampa Bay +7 over Cincinnati
Bengals win this game, but probably by three.
Atlanta -3 over Cleveland
A must bet. I love the Falcons here.
St. Louis +3 over Detroit
Another avoid at all costs game. Why would you want to put yourself through the misery of watching these two teams?
Kansas City + 8 over Indy
I'm over Peyton Manning. I still think the Colts will make the playoffs and they'll probably win this game, but the Chiefs are well-coached and have a strong running game. This is one of those 27-21 games.
Green Bay -4 over Washington
A must bet. Washington coming off a high from last weekend is likely to crash. The Packers look like a Super Bowl favorite, even after a weak performance last week. I love them here.
Chicago -3 over Carolina
I'm certainly no where near the Bears' bandwagon. But Carolina is probably the worst team in the league. Them or the Bills.
Baltimore -7 over Denver
Ray Rice is on my fantasy team so maybe I'm biased here, but has any team ever wasted such a talent as much as the Ravens are this year? I know he was hurt last week, but it's beyond me how he was getting so few touches before the injury. Why change what clearly worked last season?
Houston -3 over New York Giants
Don't let the Giants fool you. Eli Manning is the most overpaid athlete in all of sports. And Texans look more and more like a juggernaut.
New Orleans -7 over Arizona
Why is New Orleans underachieving? I like the Saints here, but I'm not betting on them. They're one of the few teams that the jury is still out on.
Dallas -7 over Tennessee
I love Dallas here. After a week off, I think they roll to victory.
San Diego -7 over Oakland
Avoid this game. Inter-division, and the Chargers are similar to the Saints. We just don't know who they are yet.
Philly +4 over San Francisco
The sexy pick to reach the playoffs is already finished. The Eagles will cruise here and everyone will jump back on the Kevin Kolb bandwagon.
New York Jets -4 over Minnesota
I can't wait for this game. Seriously, there's no reason to even bet because it's going to be awesome just to watch. I'm definitely intrigued with Moss to the Vikings though. Think about how often Favre is going to force the ball to him. The biggest loser: Adrian Peterson fantasy owners.