More bogus stats: Was John Calipari full of shit?

Ok, so this is a couple days north of relevant, but a few nagging questions have been on my mind since Monday, namely:

1. What did I do with my Brewers floppy hat?
2. Do all of my friends secretly hate me?
3. Is the roach poison in my apartment slowly giving me cancer?
4. Who's that actor in that one movie, and where do I know him from?
5. Will I die alone?
...and most importantly,
6. Was Memphis actually able to hit their free throws "when they counted," as John Calipari claimed they would, or was it just random chance that they improved in the NCAA Tournament?

So far, I've concluded, 1. Check your "hat shelf," dumbass, 2. Probably, but I might be paranoid, 3. I won't live forever anyway, 4. bit part on Home Improvement!, 5. In a sense, we all do, and 6. Let's look at the numbers!

So I went to this sweet Z-Score for two proportions calculator and sought my answer.

Here's the problem: I'm not totally sure if this is the right statistical test for the situation because 11th-grade stats was a long time ago. But if it is the right test, here's what I found.

I plugged in the pre-tourney sample of 495 makes in 830 attempts (59.6%) and compared it to Memphis's free throw stats from their first five tourney games (113-161, good for 70.2%).

The result? A 1.5% chance that the improvement was a result of pure random chance and not some tangible factor, i.e. motivation.

But here's the hitch: In Game One against Doormat U., the Tigers shot a very un-Dana Barros-like 22-35 (62.85714%). And in Game Two--their closest game prior to the final--against Mississippi St., they shot a very Chris Dudley-like 15-32 (46.875%).

(And by the way, to reaffirm how awesome I am with numbers, those were mentally-generated percentages... Check me with a calculator if you dare.)

So... Giving Memphis the benefit of the doubt--i.e. that rounds one and two only require concentration from sucker teams, even when it's a close game--their games 3-5 total comes out to 76-94 (80.9%).

The result:

There's less than a 0.1% chance that the 21.3% difference between pre-tourney Memphis and games 3-5 Memphis was a fluke.

In conclusion: John Calipari was, at most 1.5% full of shit. And CDR is a worthless choker for costing me money in my office pool. And you don't care about any of this. And I still can't find my floppy hat. Where is my fucking floppy hat?