Mike's Extremely Half-Assed EURO Final Preview

With Germany set to face off against Spain, the cliches are out in full force. On one side, the free-flowing, attacking, passionate, hot-blooded, flairful Spaniards nicknamed La Furia Roja or "The Red Fury." In the other corner, the efficient, clinical, efficient, controlling, efficient, aggressive, calculating Germans. Even their nickname, Die Mannschaft is efficient since it only means "The Team."

No doubt the Final, broadcast as part of a doubleheader Sunday after Becks' LA Galaxy visit suddenly-hot DC United, will also be awash in historical allegory. The Germans are looking to cement their fourth EURO title. The Spaniards looking to end decades of choking in major tournaments. Hitler. Franco. Catherine of Aragon. Kaiser Wilhelm. Maximus. Sergeant Schultz. Each of them will be suiting up for their respective sides and will have an influential role to play in the outcome of the game.

As for the game itself, I'm not even going to bother doing a preview. One, because I honestly have no clue who is going to win. Two, because picking soccer games at this level is always a crapshoot. Three, because I am too biased in favor of my one-quarter-countymen, the Germans. Four, even if I weren't, Germany looks better on paper, but the Spanish look like a team of destiny...if not for the fact that they've never been a team of destiny. So while the Spanish may be looking to head Germany their biggest ass-kicking in Austria since the Von Trapps, I gotta go with the Germans.

My call: Germany 3-2. Sorry for wasting your time.

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"I'll kill myself if Portugal doesn't win..."

As Homer says. EURO 2008 gets underway June 7 with co-hosts Austria and Switzerland providing the stadiums, the chocolate, and the lederhosen. The EURO is like the World Cup, but as its name implies, just for Europe. While seemingly offering little that the World Cup doesn't offer, it can often be the more thrilling of the two competitions, and heroes and goats are made just as easily. (David Beckham at EURO 2004 comes to mind.)

While at the World Cup, European teams make up roughly half the competition, the EURO gives them their own party, and kicks the Saudi Arabias and the Trinidad and Tobagos out. No 8-0 drubbings here. The competition is elite, and the field is arguably deeper than the World Cup. Quite possibly every one of the 16 teams still alive has the talent to win it, but like any tournament there's gotta be favorites, dark horses, and also-rans.

The tournament may not get underway until June 7, but with my my new job starting next week (which unlike my old job, I may actually have to do work), I gotta get my obligatory EURO 2008 Preview taken care of NOW. With that, here comes as best of a EURO Preview as I can provide as to determine who will be dancing with the Von Trapps in Vienna for the Final.

Group A: Portugal, Turkey, Czech Republic, Switzerland
Portugal has to be considered one of the favorites for the competition. EURO runners-up in 2004 and World Cup semifinalists in 2006, the Portuguese boast one of the most athletic and technically skilled sides in Europe. Manchester United's Cristiano Ronaldo is already arguably one of the best players in the world, but leading Portugal to their first EURO win and Manchester United to the Champions League title in the same month would likely cement his place in Soccer's all-time pantheon alongside players like Pele, Beckenbauer, Zidane, and Diego Maradona. Portugal lost the fewest games in their group in qualifying (only a 2-1 loss at Poland). With a relatively easy group, and some of Europe's biggest stars, Portugal has to be considered among the favorites not just to advance out of group, but to win the tournament outright.

Turkey is the wild card of this group. I'm picking them to take second in the group perhaps largely as overcompensation for my 2006 World Cup picks, where I perhaps irrationally favored the Czechs, who did not even make it out of the group stage.

The Czechs certainly have a great keeper in Chelsea FC's Petr Cech, but beyond that and Portsmouth's Milan Baros, the Czechs don't exactly have the kind of lineup that strikes fear. Baros and Nuremburg's Jan Koller appear to be their only offensive options.


Switzerland could get a host nation bump to get a result against the dangerous Turks or the star-laden Portuguese, but ultimately, I don't think they have the talent to get out of the group.

Group B: Germany, Croatia, Poland, Austria
Germany is clearly the favorite here. A 3rd-place finish at the 2006 World Cup, and runners-up at the 2002 World Cup, the Germans boast a roster featuring Chelsea's Michael Ballack and 2006 World Cup leading scorer Miroslav Klose. Arsenal's Jens Lehmann takes over the goalkeeper reins from longtime German keeper Olivier Kahn, but will need to be on his best form if he wants to lead die Mannschaft to their fourth EURO trophy.

Croatia appears the favorite to advance along with Germany. A young team, only 7 players on the 23-man roster are over the age of 30. Croatia racked up some impressive victories in qualifying, including a win over England at Wembley on the last day of qualifying to send the Croats through and the English to an unplanned summer off.

Poland SHOULD HAVE BEEN the other team to go through. They certainly have the talent, but I do not have a lot of confidence in them. Make no mistake. Lightbulb jokes aside, the Poles are a very capable team, and may very well be able to knock off Croatia for the second spot out of the group (or maybe even give Germany a scare!). However, inexperience and a run of poor form at the worst possible time may doom them. Poland is making their first-ever appearance at the EURO, and the run up to the tournament does not really inspire fear in anyone. The Poles were victim to a 3-0 drubbing at the hands of the United States in front of a sold out crowd in Krakow. This same US team just got outclassed 2-0 by an England side that didn't even qualify for the EURO. Other recent contests included a 1-1 draw with tiny Macedonia and a 1-0 win over even tinier Albania. I've listed Poland to finish third, but would not be surprised to see them finish last.

Austria, like co-hosts Switzerland, may benefit from a host nation bump to get a result, but I'd actually put the Swiss as more likely to advance to the quarterfinals given their past history in major competitions. The Swiss were Final-16 contenders at the last World Cup. On the other side, Austria is making their first appearance in the EURO, and has not escaped from the group stage at the World Cup since 1982.

Group C: Netherlands, France, Italy, Romania
Every tournament has a group of death, and for EURO 2008, this is it. Group C includes the two 2006 World Cup finalists in France and Italy, alongside the Netherlands, a team led by Real Madrid's Ruud Van Nistelroy and Manchester United's Edwin Van der Sar that is as capable of winning this tournament as any.

France is a side in transition. After Zidane's retirement after the 2006 World Cup, France must rely on a new generation of stars. Barcelona's Thierry Henry is already the new face of the team, with experience to boot. Henry has played in two World Cup Finals with France (1998 and 2006), led France to a World Cup title (1998) and a EURO championship (2000), and he's still only 30 years old. Winning another EURO title and playing in another World Cup Final may not be a stretch. Franck Ribery of Bayern Munich will likewise be needed to contribute. The key players for Les Bleus I think may well be Nicholas Anelka (Chelsea) and Florent Malouda to provide the kind of depth needed to win these tournaments.

The World Champion Azzuri may very well be the odd team out for the quarterfinals, despite boasting a wealth of world class players whose names roll off the tongue like linguine. The only problem facing this Italian side is that Fabio Cannavaro, Buffon, Ambrosini, Del Piero, and Materazzi, is that they are old and only getting older. While younger stars like Daniele de Rossi might impress, 14 out of the 23 players on the roster are over the age of 30 (Compared to 7 for France). Italy may benefit from a "win now" mentality, but at this stage of the game, every team has that. Italy and France met twice in qualifying, with both matches ending in draws.

Romania put together a decent qualifying campaign I think the French and Dutch are the class of this group. Romania could steal points and determine who moves on, but they themselves will probably not be advancing given the depth of talent in this group.

Group D: Spain, Greece, Russia, Sweden
Spain are back once again, and once again will advance out of group, but once again will not be lifting trophies at the end of the tournament. It's a familiar story as old as time. La Furia has not won the EURO since 1964. Spain is certainly a talented side featuring the likes of Real Madrid's goalkeeper Iker Casillas and Arsenal's Cesc Fabregas. Spain has also notched some victories over high profile opponents in France and Italy so far this year in their run-up preparations. An imminent meeting with the United States in Santander, Spain will tell a lot about how far this team has come, and how ready they are for the EURO.

Greece are the defending Champions, having won EURO 2004 in Portugal, but color me not impressed. Greece ran away with what was a really weak qualifying group (Turkey, Bosnia, Hungary, Norway, Moldova, and Malta) I'm picking them to advance practically solely on their success in the last tournament, and their relative success in qualifying compared to Russia.

Spain and Sweden met twice in qualifying, with both sides claiming shutout victories at home. Sweden made it to the last 16 of the 2006 World Cup, and I feel like I have to label them as my dark horse in this group.

Russia is in this tournament finals more because England couldn't take care of business than for anything the Ruskies did. Against the three other teams in Russia's group that I gave at least a shot to reach the finals (England, Croatia, and Israel), Russia managed to run up an awe-inspiring 1-2-3 record.


Favorites to win the tournament outright
Portugal, France, Germany, Netherlands


Dark Horses
Spain, Croatia, Italy, Greece


Have the talent to get out of group, but a title run would be a stretch
Russia, Czech Republic, Sweden


Will do damage before it's done
Turkey, Austria, Poland, Switzerland, Romania

I'll have another preview once the bracket is set for the knockout stages in two weeks. So until then, sit back, drink a Stiegl or chomp on a Toblerone and enjoy this year's EURO. Then laugh at how astonishingly off my predictions were, just like my World Cup picks two years ago.

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Smoldering Beck-age; a legitimate analysis

As in "wreckage."

It's been some amount of time since David Beckham's 2007 MLS season drew to a close. Now that the dust has settled and the doomsday predictions and knee-jerk reactions have fallen by the wayside, it seems only fair that since I did a preview piece to the start of the Beckham era, it seems only fair that I do some sort of wrap-up piece to the first season of "Beckhamania."

The first thing I want to say is, I saw this coming. The other writers on this blog know me well enough to know that I'm kind of a dick when I think I'm right, and I'm an even bigger dick when I'm validated. Sure, I foresaw the inability of Becks to meet the Bristol Hype Machine. That was easy to call, you say? Well, that post enables me to hide in a little less shame from my MLS season preview, where I very incorrectly predicted the Galaxy would win the MLS Cup. (Los Angeles is presently 4-11-5, a mark good enough for last place. They're not eliminated from the playoffs yet, but it's not too big a stretch to imagine the postseason without Becks, Landon, Cobi & Company.)


So what happened? Who screwed up? In a nutshell, everything happened, and everyone screwed up, and in the end, just about everyone suffered.

MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
The first place to lay blame is at the swanky new office on 5th Avenue in New York City, home of the MLS League offices, and Commissioner Don Garber. In a move to be all things to all owners, MLS arranged a schedule that was backloaded with games for the Galaxy (They still have two matches in hand on every other team in the league). Basically, the league office knew there would be a demand for Becks, both in LA (To justify increases in season ticket prices for a team that missed the playoffs last year) and around the league (to justify bundling lackluster midweek contests into "Beckham Packs" to milk the demand.

The David Beckham Roadshow started shortly after he arrived.

It started with Becks being trotted out like a dalmatian at a dog show for the ESPN cameras back in July, a game where he made a token appearance in a meaningless friendly against Chelsea. Despite the irrelevance of the game, he sustained a hard tackle from a Blues defender that most certainly aggravated his ankle injury, which from medical reports, was seemingly held together with cobwebs and prayers. This set his recovery back, forcing LA's #23 to miss games in Dallas, Toronto, Colorado, New England, and two in Los Angeles. The League bet high on 23 White, and needed to recoup.

THE LOS ANGELES GALAXY (GM Alexi Lalas, Head Coach Frank Yallop)
When all was said and done, David Beckham made appearances in three MLS games (@New York, @DC United, Chivas USA, and two SuperLiga games (DC United, Pachuca). In those games, he made a valiant effort to rescue an LA team with a troubled midfield and a decimated back line. But it was not enough. Aside from a SuperLiga Semifinal victory over DC United, the Galaxy won only one game with Beckham on the roster (0-5-1 in MLS, 3-2 in SuperLiga). Pundits will point to this as a failure on Beckham's part to "elevate" the play of the Galaxy.

Sadly, Beckham actually did raise the Galaxy's level of play. The Galaxy's record is more a testiment to the same flawed premise that built Beckham's Real Madrid teams in the early part of the decade. "Sign a bunch of stars, throw them together in the same color shirt and hope they win games." Signing internationals and retaining veterans chewed up LA's already limited salary cap space. The resulting lack of cash left the Galaxy unable to sign or retain players in stop-gap positions, like the midfield and on the back line. Goalkeeper Joe Cannon was the best keeper in the league last year. He pitched a shutout against Chelsea's first team in the All-Star game, yet routinely gave up crooked number scorelines every night thanks to defensive pairings that were routinely overmatched. That falls to the GM, Alexi Lalas, and I would not be surprised to see him packing his bags in the offseason after failing to put together a playoff team for the past two seasons.

Coach Frank Yallop played the hand he was dealt. He had a lousy team with no depth, a bunch of washed-up money-pits (Cobi Jones, Abel Xavier, etc.), and as a result was forced to play Beckham more than he probably would have had the Galaxy not been bleeding goals, not producing anything on the offensive end and desperate for points in a crowded MLS Cup Playoff race. While he's not entirely to blame, he contributed to Becks' demise in his own way.

STEVE McCLAREN (English National Team Coach)

Beckham's play in the August game against DC United I largely attribute to the fact that England coach Steve McClaren was in the boxes that night at RFK Stadium. Beckham had been under pressure to perform in England's European Championship campaign, which had fallen on hard times (perhaps ironically after new England coach McClaren dropped Beckham from his England squad last fall.) With Beckham wanting to break back into the English squad, and McClaren needing European victories to save his own ass (or arse?), Beckham was forced to accelerate his "recovery" to meet the English FA's needs. And it's not just Beckham who's been forced to play through sidelining injuries. Liverpool midfielder Steven Gerrard played for England in their recent 3-0 win over Israel despite a broken toe. I don't want to hear one more person say that soccer players are pansies.

DAVID BECKHAM

Beckham himself is to blame, largely for neglecting his own health and fitness. Beckham was trying to be all things to all people, which is admirable, but here it was just not plausible. He wanted to be the celebrity everyone knew he would be, the leader everyone thought he could be, the ambassador-for-the-sport he thought he could be, and the England leader he hoped his coach would want him to be. Beckham's last act of hubris and perhaps utter neglect for his fitness was playing 90 minutes on the Giants Stadium field turf on Saturday, flying to London on Sunday (arriving Monday), playing 90 minutes in an intense international friendly against Germany on Wednesday, flying back to Los Angeles (only an 8-hour time change) to play in the LA Derby that Thursday night. A few days later, Beckham was on the bench, ice around his knee and his face in his hands, perhaps contemplating what might have been if he hadn't written checks to Steve McClaren and his body couldn't cash. From the Galaxy (July-August '07), to Real Madrid's Spanish season (July '06 to May '07) to England's World Cup bid (May-July '06) to Madrid's prior season (July '05 to May '06), Beckham never really got any time off to heal from the nicks and dings that players accumulate over time.

ESPN

Not just the Bristol-types, but the entire national sports media, who expected Beckham to be the "savior of American soccer," totally neglecting that MLS as a whole does not need saving (average attendance up, median attendance up, % of games under 10,000 fans WAY down, % of games with more than 20,000 fans WAY up) as well as failing to research basic aspects of the sport [On PTI, they were apparently unaware that you can play for a national team (England) and a club team (LA).], and forgetting the fact that the man is not a machine. If Kobe got hurt, it would be "Kobe's out 6-8 weeks," not "Why isn't Kobe playing? The fans bought tickets to see Kobe." Of Beckham's appearances, let's look at the television situation. Bold = Becks plays.

Chelsea FC (ESPN2)

Superliga: Pachuca (Telefutura)

Superliga: CD Guadalajara (Telefutura)

Superliga: @ FC Dallas (Telefutura)

@ Toronto FC (ESPN2)

@ DC United (ESPN2)

@ New England Revolution (No ESPN)

Superliga: DC United (Telefutura)

@ RB New York (Fox Soccer Channel)

Chivas USA (ESPN2)

@ Colorado Rapids (No ESPN)

Superliga: Pachuca (No ESPN)

As you can see, in the 6 games Beckham appeared in, 4 were positioned on a national English-language soccer broadcast. Only two of the games in the Beckham era did not appear on some form of national TV. To say that media pressure didn't play a factor I think is naive, especially for a league looking to muscle its way into the American mainstream, and a network looking for a return on its investment. (ESPN, FSC, and Telefutura all paid rights to MLS for the first time this year).

While the Beckham experiment met a premature end, the international profile of MLS has been significantly raised, allowing a crop of electric players to enter the league. Cuauhtemoc Blanco, Guillermo Barros Schelotto, Luciano Emilio, Juan Toja, Carlos Pavon, Juan Pablo Angel, Denilson, and many other new international players may not be here were it not for the Beckham experiment. Next season, after some rest and relaxation (and a thrilling Becks-less finish to the 2007 season), we'll get to see what a healthy Beckham can do in a maturing league.

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England: The Kentucky Basketball of International Soccer

It's long been accepted that coaching a team carries with it the responsibilities of leading the team to victory. If the team doesn't win, a change of leadership must be required, and axeing the coach will make all the problems disappear. When the new coach wins his first game, there is jubilation and the glory days are back again. It happens over and over again like dictators succeeding each other in coups.

Such is the case with England. A 4-0 thrashing of Greece last fall convinced many that new boss Steve McClaren was the man for the job, and his dismissal of former captain David Beckham appeared a stroke of genius. The griping and grumbling of English fans over old coach Sven-Goran Eriksson, who skippered England to another disappointing World Cup (ONLY the Quarterfinals) was gone. We'll just ignore that England has only been past the quarterfinals once since 1966, a fourth-place finish at World Cup Italia '90.

Now it is the exact opposite. McClaren's head is being called for and the supporters who once spurned Beckham as a pretty boy starlet with more hair product than on-field talent are clamoring for his return, a move which McClaren seems unlikely to make any time soon, should he still have his job come next week. Fans and columnists are actually citing Beckham's absence and as such absence of leadership as the main reason why England are "underachieving."

It's time for a reality check. First, England are in third place in their 2008 European Championship qualifying group where the top two qualify, only 3 points behind second-place Russia. They have seven matches remaining (3 points for win, 1 for tie), including two against Russia, and one against Group E leaders Croatia (5 points ahead). The Three Lions are by no means out, or even in serious trouble, especially when one considers that four of their final five matches will be in front of thousands of St. George Crosses at the newly renovated Wembley Stadium.

Their scoring drought (1 goal in four matches, where England have gone 1-1-2) is something to be concerned about, but one must keep in mind that three of those matches were on the road, and the goal in any international tournament is to win at home and tie on the road. The teams they have failed to score against for the most part are European also-rans whose only motivation seems to be to avoid being blown out, hence a tightly-packed defensive scheme that results in ugly football. The only loss they suffered was at Croatia, to the group leaders.

But let's even say that England were shite this year, and WERE in serious danger of not qualifying for the EURO. What is being totally overlooked in this situation is that the only place where coaching really matters in top-flight soccer is in terms of setting the formation, and personnel management, which largely depends on setting the formation. Basically, on the world stage, coaching is largely irrelevant. The players have been coached all they can. They know their job and what they need to do.

England has more than enough talent to play, so the loss of Beckham is not an issue either. Nearly every player on the England roster plies their trade in the English Premiership; largely considered to be the best professional league in the world. Beckham's loss of leadership should likewise not be an issue because on England's current roster, six players are currently serving as captain, or vice-captain of their Premiership club.

So what's to cause for England's recent troubles? The fans. Not in the sense that the fans are not supporting England, but the fans are unrealistic. It's the same reason why if you don't win National titles every year at Notre Dame or Kentucky you get run out of town on a rail. Sometimes in international football, the breaks don't go your way. Especially when your qualifying schedule for one of the most prestigious competitions in the world is heavily front-loaded with road games. English fans seem to expect to win every game 5-0, and to win trophies constantly simply because the sport was invented in England. The fact is, England is a very good team. Possibly not an elite team, but there are many other sides who would LOVE to be blessed with the kind of talent and training infrastructure that England possesses. It's almost as if England fans haven't realized that they haven't won a World Cup since the 1966 final at Wembley Stadium. They're not supposed to dominate. They're supposed to win at home and tie on the road, and for the most part, they've managed to do just that.

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