MLS End-of-Season Awards and Playoff Predictions

I've got to get to class so I'll keep this short.

MVP: Shalrie Joesph, New England Revolution. As much as it pains me to award a dirty Rev bastard anything, the fact of the matter is that no player has been more valuable to his team this season than the Grenadan international has been for the Revs. New England squeaked into the playoffs on the last day after fighting a rash of injuries and departures.

Most Outstanding Player: Landon Donovan, Los Angeles Galaxy. Donovan's 12 goals were enough to tie him for third among the scoring leaders in MLS. While Jeff Cunningham of FC Dallas and Conor Casey of Colorado Rapids technically scored more goals (17 and 16, respectively), Donovan's to me rank more impressive because of several reasons. First, Cunningham was nearly invisible in the first half of the season, scoring most of his goals in Dallas' stretch run from irrelevance to the brink of the playoffs, and I can't even remember the last time Casey scored for the Rapids in the run of play. A number of his goals at the end of the season came on penalty kicks. Moreso, Donovan scored his 12 goals in only 25 games, missing a decent chunk of the summer with Confederations Cup and World Cup Qualifying duty with Team USA.

Newcomer of the year: Fredy Montero. The Columbian striker turned Seattle Sounders into an instant contender. With two goals in his first game, Montero set the pace and put the league on notice. While his goal tally tailed off, he still finished with 12 strikes in 27 games, and became a weapon other teams needed to focus on, opening up space for Nate Jaqua (7 goals) and rookie Steve Zakuani (4 goals) in leading the Sounders to the playoffs; the first MLS expansion side to reach the postseason since the 1998 Chicago Fire.

Supporters Section of the Year: Emerald City Supporters, Seattle Sounders. The new boys in Green showed the old guard a thing or two. While points should be docked because the ECS does get a healthy dose of assistance from the Sounders front office, this should show a model for other MLS teams to follow, treating supporters groups like what they are. Passionate supporters that can only grow your business and will be your best customers, instead of a troublesome nuisance that is nothing more than a problem that needs to be dealt with.

Goalkeeper of the Year: Zach Thornton, Chivas USA. As a former keeper, I gotta give an award for the netminders, and on that note, Zach Thornton may inspire me to dust the gloves off. Also making a move for MLS's comeback player of the year, Thornton after being released by the Chicago Fire after the 2006 season, has found his way from from New York to Colorado to LA. Looking like the Zach Thornton of old, he backstopped Chivas USA to 12 shutouts, and posted a 0.87 GAA en route to Chivas USA's third playoff berth in a row. Only three other MLS sides have made the playoffs the last three years (Chicago, New England, Houston) so this is quite a feat in itself.

Playoff Predictions
League Quarterfinals

West #1 Los Angeles vs. West #4 Chivas USA
The Clasico Angelino makes its first playoff appearance. Los Angeles should be able to take down the Goats after winning the season series, and winning their first Division title in 7 years.

West #2 Houston vs. West #3 Seattle
Experience favors Houston. Even when their offense has trouble scoring goals, the backline is solid and they may have just enough to progress. This is going to be a marquee series. At least 70k people will likely attend the two games if past attendance is any guide.

East #1 Columbus vs. West #5 Salt Lake
Columbus is the best team in the league for a reason. They are solid at just about every position from the Keeper all the way to the strikers. They have been dominant at home, and became only the second team to repeat as Supporters Shield Winners (2006 and 2007 DC United). As the only MLS team left in the CONCACAF Champions League, they have shown a deep roster capable of adapting whatever injury challenges are thrown at them. They have to be considered the favorites to come out of the East, but it is worth noting that at least one #1 seed has gone down in the first round the last four years (2008 Houston, 2007 DC United, 2006 Chivas USA, 2005 San Jose). RSL has traditionally been strong at home. A poor outing in the Wasatch range altitude could set the stage for a win or go home game in Columbus a week later. I would welcome an RSL victory....

East #2 Chicago vs. East #3 New England
...Because it would enable Chicago to host the Eastern Conference Final at home for the first time since 2003. The Fire have only won one postseason series where they did not have home-field advantage (1998 vs. LA). On the flip side, the Fire have only lost one series where they did have home field advantage (2001 vs. LA). The Fire won the season series 1-0-2 from New England, including a win and a draw in Foxboro. However, the Fire's home form has been nothing short of dreadful. Both teams are saddled with injury problems, but the archrivals are set to lock horns once again in November. One team has ended the other team's season every year since 2000 save one.

First Round Winners
Los Angeles, Seattle, Chicago, Columbus

MLS Cup 2009
Seattle over Columbus.

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Welcome Back

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YCS Flawed Stats/Info Analysis: Part 2135143463463434

SI.com seems surprised that LA Galaxy midfielder David Beckham is nowhere near the list of the highest-paid players in the game today. Beckham's salary ranked 44th in the world, at a little over $7 million per year. The defending World Player of the Year, Brazil's Kaka earns twice as much plying his trade at AC Milan.

However, there is a key difference. Beckham's salary is only the tip of the iceberg. Part of Beckham's contract with MLS was that he would control his image rights, enabling him to keep his endorsement revenue, and earn a percentage of sales of LA Galaxy #23 jerseys. Those shirts are among the highest-selling in the world.

Under many European contracts,* these image rights and jersey sales go to the club, not to the player. So while Becks may make less than Kaka, his contract situation is MUCH better, and Becks is not going to the poorhouse any time soon.

* I cannot confirm if this is the case with Kaka's contract, but it would not surprise me.

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There Must Be Something In the Water Out In Cali

Rumors are rife around American soccer that former Portuguese captain Luis Figo is coming to MLS to join his former Real Madrid teammate David Beckham in Los Angeles. However, there is the slight matter of the salary cap to consider. Beckham eats up 400k and Landon Donovan eats up about 900k per season. Small potatoes for sports, but a pretty sizeable chunk of LA's salary cap (About 2.5 million per team).

So to free up some space, yesterday the Galaxy dealt goalkeeper Joe Cannon (250k) to the expansion/Cleveland Browns-rebooted San Jose Earthquakes for cash. While this does free up some cap room to potentially sign Figo, I am really puzzled by this series of moves. There must be something in the water on Victoria Street or something LA Galaxy GM Alexi Lalas knows about that no one else knows about.

First of all, if the rumors are just rumors, then why deal away the one bright spot and one consistent performer during last year's Beckham Circus? Cannon is easily the best goalkeeper in the league, and any team wishing to improve has to start with improving the back line and then move forward. The Galaxy are going to have to improve by building a solid team throughout the midfield and backline, not by signing aging stars.

If Cannon's dealing IS to clear up cap space to potentially sign Figo, then two scenarios emerge, one in which Los Angeles convinces Figo to sign for WAAAAAAAAAAY less than he's probably worth on the market (6 figures or less). This would be a feat in itself, as there are several other leagues around the world (Mostly in Asia and the Middle East) who also offer retirees one last cash grab before packing it in.

Under the second scenario, they can pay Figo whatever they want, but to do that, they must acquire a second Designated Player slot from another team through a trade. That potentially puts Landon Donovan on the trade block. As much as I rag on the guy for mailing it in in big games and not pushing himself at the next level, he's still one of the best players in MLS, and has been the face of the Galaxy for the past 3 years. The only other scenario now that Cannon is gone would see LA depleted, shipping off either years worth of draft picks or their entire team and starting over with fresh faces.

Either way, it will be a team of nobodies plus Luis Figo's old (age 35) legs and David Beckham. LA could be decimated for years to come. As for this year, I'm trying really hard to see how LA is going to make the playoffs this season, but so far, it is looking doubtful.

This doesn't even make sense as a league conspiracy to stock the Galaxy and turn them into a superclub on the calibre of Real Madrid or Manchester United. Figo, despite his age, would still probably be the second-most-well-known player in MLS, after Beckham.

Last season, several teams where Beckham visited noticed a "Beckham Bounce" in attendance whenever the Galaxy played there. (ie: New York draws and average of 15k fans, but drew 50k for the 5-4 instant classic with the Galaxy last summer). Looking at the history of the Beckham Bounce, (and the smaller "Blanco Bounce" for whenever Chicago Fire visited an away stadium with their Mexican star Cuauhtemoc Blanco), wouldn't it make sense to put Figo on another team, to add a "Figo Bounce"? There are presently two markets in MLS with large Portuguese populations who have not used the DP rule yet, Toronto and New England. What gives?

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Good to the Last Match

The MLS playoff system has more than it's fair share of detractors. Traditional soccer fans bemoan the fact that a team that finishes with the 8th best record over the season is only 4 wins away from winning a championship (As LA Galaxy did in 2005). Other fans cry afoul at how 8 out of 13 teams make the postseason, rendering early-season games meaningless.

Well, regardless of the detractors, this is shaping up to be the wildest finish to an MLS playoff chase in years. With the Cup playoffs starting next Thursday, teams have one last chance to impress and earn their way in. Three games this weekend carry massive ramifications for teams looking to extend their season.

Colorado at Salt Lake, Los Angeles at Chicago, Kansas City at Dallas.

These four teams are clustered together within 3 points of each other. Each with one game left, and it may come down to tiebreakers, or even goal difference.

SATURDAY PREVIEW
Kansas City's hot start this season (6-3-2) had many people believing that first-year coach Curt Anolfo would be the man to lead KC back to the playoffs after a two-year absence. That's not so much the feeling at Arrowhead anymore. Kansas City has fallen from the top of the Eastern Conference to 5th place, having gone 3-7-3 since the All-Star Break.

FC Dallas has nothing left to play for. They are in the playoffs. They know their seed. They know a matchup with either Chivas USA or Houston Dynamo awaits them at home next week. Who knows if coach Steve Morrow will bench his starters, which could open the door for KC. However, Dallas has a deeper bench than KC, and should prevail in this one given KC's recent run of poor form. KC stays on 37 points. They are Fire fans on Sunday.

Salt Lake has nothing left to play for, except the Rocky Mountain Cup against their rivals Colorado. In one of MLS's few bad-blood rivalries, the Stormin' Mormons are in the position to knock off their rivals in the Cup (1-1-1 record this season) and to knock them out of the playoffs. Colorado is a team in flux. They look like world-beaters one day (knocking off Chivas USA on the road last weekend), and can look abysmal the next. Head coach Fernando Clavijo's job may be resting on this game. I can see a tie here. Colorado ends up with 36 points, and is eliminated.



SUNDAY PREVIEW
This is the big one. (Hence more analysis).

The one benefit Chicago and LA have is that they will know for certain exactly what they both need to make the playoffs before the last match of the regular season kicks off at Toyota Park on Sunday afternoon.

While Kansas City's season story is a literary tragedy, Chicago and Los Angeles have been cliched sports movies. Both teams start off the season poorly, untill a new player comes on. David Beckham and Cuauhtemoc Blanco, perhaps the Jimmy Chitwood and Even Uglier Jimmy Chitwood of MLS arrived to help rescue their teams. Blanco succeeded, scoring 4 goals and notching 6 assists in 13 games since arriving from Mexico's Club America.


Despite Blanco's addiiton, the Fire's attack still leaves much to be desired. Costa Rican International striker Paolo Wanchope looks sluggish and out of shape; scoring only two goals in 13 games- a terrible rate of attrition for a striker who is supposed to be a focal point of the Fire's attack. The Fire's offense is in similar straits; having scored multiple goals in a game only twice since September 1 (a 2-1 win over New England and a 2-2 tie against New York). Colombian International Wilman Conde has been a huge pickup for the Fire, and has helped solidify a backline that was showing it's age. The Fire have only ALLOWED multiple goals in a game twice since the All-Star Break. This Fire team plays catanaccio, an Italian model of soccer, focusing on tough defense, rough play in the midfield, taking advantage of referee's lack of position, and capitalizing on set piece opportunities.


Los Angeles plays more free-flowing, attack-oriented soccer with strike points Landon Donovan and Honduran International Carlos Pavon. Their injury woes have largely solved themselves, and if they can get into the playoffs, it will cap a Colorado Rockies-type run of going undefeated in 7 matches (6-0-1) to come back from the soccer grave. However, last night they were playing New York, who employs similar tactics. On Sunday, can the Galaxy's strikers adjust and get through the defensive midfield and backline of Chicago to recieve pinpoint passes from #23? Two unanswered goals may put the game out of reach for either side. Chicago has only come from behind to win once all year (two weeks ago against New England). Los Angeles has done so three times in the last month, however, in each of those games, LA had a man advantage by the end of the game, and poached a goal in that time frame. The conspiracy theorists will tell you the league is influencing the refs to issue red cards and get the Galaxy and their poster-child into the playoffs. I don't buy it...yet.

It's a sold out crowd in Chicago, and not just of the Beckham jersey-wearing, puberty-going-through, thunderstick-banging type. Chicago has drawn over 20,000 fans for each of their last 4, and 5 of their last 6 games. It will be a largely pro-Fire crowd. As bad as Chicago has been at home this season (5-3-6), LA has been even worse on the road (3-7-4). I could see a tough, hard fought match with a late flurry of a finish. My heart says Fire to win, but in all reality, I think this one is headed for a gritty 1-1 draw, which would send Chicago and Colorado to the playoffs.

MLS Cup Playoff Preview next week...

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Smoldering Beck-age; a legitimate analysis

As in "wreckage."

It's been some amount of time since David Beckham's 2007 MLS season drew to a close. Now that the dust has settled and the doomsday predictions and knee-jerk reactions have fallen by the wayside, it seems only fair that since I did a preview piece to the start of the Beckham era, it seems only fair that I do some sort of wrap-up piece to the first season of "Beckhamania."

The first thing I want to say is, I saw this coming. The other writers on this blog know me well enough to know that I'm kind of a dick when I think I'm right, and I'm an even bigger dick when I'm validated. Sure, I foresaw the inability of Becks to meet the Bristol Hype Machine. That was easy to call, you say? Well, that post enables me to hide in a little less shame from my MLS season preview, where I very incorrectly predicted the Galaxy would win the MLS Cup. (Los Angeles is presently 4-11-5, a mark good enough for last place. They're not eliminated from the playoffs yet, but it's not too big a stretch to imagine the postseason without Becks, Landon, Cobi & Company.)


So what happened? Who screwed up? In a nutshell, everything happened, and everyone screwed up, and in the end, just about everyone suffered.

MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
The first place to lay blame is at the swanky new office on 5th Avenue in New York City, home of the MLS League offices, and Commissioner Don Garber. In a move to be all things to all owners, MLS arranged a schedule that was backloaded with games for the Galaxy (They still have two matches in hand on every other team in the league). Basically, the league office knew there would be a demand for Becks, both in LA (To justify increases in season ticket prices for a team that missed the playoffs last year) and around the league (to justify bundling lackluster midweek contests into "Beckham Packs" to milk the demand.

The David Beckham Roadshow started shortly after he arrived.

It started with Becks being trotted out like a dalmatian at a dog show for the ESPN cameras back in July, a game where he made a token appearance in a meaningless friendly against Chelsea. Despite the irrelevance of the game, he sustained a hard tackle from a Blues defender that most certainly aggravated his ankle injury, which from medical reports, was seemingly held together with cobwebs and prayers. This set his recovery back, forcing LA's #23 to miss games in Dallas, Toronto, Colorado, New England, and two in Los Angeles. The League bet high on 23 White, and needed to recoup.

THE LOS ANGELES GALAXY (GM Alexi Lalas, Head Coach Frank Yallop)
When all was said and done, David Beckham made appearances in three MLS games (@New York, @DC United, Chivas USA, and two SuperLiga games (DC United, Pachuca). In those games, he made a valiant effort to rescue an LA team with a troubled midfield and a decimated back line. But it was not enough. Aside from a SuperLiga Semifinal victory over DC United, the Galaxy won only one game with Beckham on the roster (0-5-1 in MLS, 3-2 in SuperLiga). Pundits will point to this as a failure on Beckham's part to "elevate" the play of the Galaxy.

Sadly, Beckham actually did raise the Galaxy's level of play. The Galaxy's record is more a testiment to the same flawed premise that built Beckham's Real Madrid teams in the early part of the decade. "Sign a bunch of stars, throw them together in the same color shirt and hope they win games." Signing internationals and retaining veterans chewed up LA's already limited salary cap space. The resulting lack of cash left the Galaxy unable to sign or retain players in stop-gap positions, like the midfield and on the back line. Goalkeeper Joe Cannon was the best keeper in the league last year. He pitched a shutout against Chelsea's first team in the All-Star game, yet routinely gave up crooked number scorelines every night thanks to defensive pairings that were routinely overmatched. That falls to the GM, Alexi Lalas, and I would not be surprised to see him packing his bags in the offseason after failing to put together a playoff team for the past two seasons.

Coach Frank Yallop played the hand he was dealt. He had a lousy team with no depth, a bunch of washed-up money-pits (Cobi Jones, Abel Xavier, etc.), and as a result was forced to play Beckham more than he probably would have had the Galaxy not been bleeding goals, not producing anything on the offensive end and desperate for points in a crowded MLS Cup Playoff race. While he's not entirely to blame, he contributed to Becks' demise in his own way.

STEVE McCLAREN (English National Team Coach)

Beckham's play in the August game against DC United I largely attribute to the fact that England coach Steve McClaren was in the boxes that night at RFK Stadium. Beckham had been under pressure to perform in England's European Championship campaign, which had fallen on hard times (perhaps ironically after new England coach McClaren dropped Beckham from his England squad last fall.) With Beckham wanting to break back into the English squad, and McClaren needing European victories to save his own ass (or arse?), Beckham was forced to accelerate his "recovery" to meet the English FA's needs. And it's not just Beckham who's been forced to play through sidelining injuries. Liverpool midfielder Steven Gerrard played for England in their recent 3-0 win over Israel despite a broken toe. I don't want to hear one more person say that soccer players are pansies.

DAVID BECKHAM

Beckham himself is to blame, largely for neglecting his own health and fitness. Beckham was trying to be all things to all people, which is admirable, but here it was just not plausible. He wanted to be the celebrity everyone knew he would be, the leader everyone thought he could be, the ambassador-for-the-sport he thought he could be, and the England leader he hoped his coach would want him to be. Beckham's last act of hubris and perhaps utter neglect for his fitness was playing 90 minutes on the Giants Stadium field turf on Saturday, flying to London on Sunday (arriving Monday), playing 90 minutes in an intense international friendly against Germany on Wednesday, flying back to Los Angeles (only an 8-hour time change) to play in the LA Derby that Thursday night. A few days later, Beckham was on the bench, ice around his knee and his face in his hands, perhaps contemplating what might have been if he hadn't written checks to Steve McClaren and his body couldn't cash. From the Galaxy (July-August '07), to Real Madrid's Spanish season (July '06 to May '07) to England's World Cup bid (May-July '06) to Madrid's prior season (July '05 to May '06), Beckham never really got any time off to heal from the nicks and dings that players accumulate over time.

ESPN

Not just the Bristol-types, but the entire national sports media, who expected Beckham to be the "savior of American soccer," totally neglecting that MLS as a whole does not need saving (average attendance up, median attendance up, % of games under 10,000 fans WAY down, % of games with more than 20,000 fans WAY up) as well as failing to research basic aspects of the sport [On PTI, they were apparently unaware that you can play for a national team (England) and a club team (LA).], and forgetting the fact that the man is not a machine. If Kobe got hurt, it would be "Kobe's out 6-8 weeks," not "Why isn't Kobe playing? The fans bought tickets to see Kobe." Of Beckham's appearances, let's look at the television situation. Bold = Becks plays.

Chelsea FC (ESPN2)

Superliga: Pachuca (Telefutura)

Superliga: CD Guadalajara (Telefutura)

Superliga: @ FC Dallas (Telefutura)

@ Toronto FC (ESPN2)

@ DC United (ESPN2)

@ New England Revolution (No ESPN)

Superliga: DC United (Telefutura)

@ RB New York (Fox Soccer Channel)

Chivas USA (ESPN2)

@ Colorado Rapids (No ESPN)

Superliga: Pachuca (No ESPN)

As you can see, in the 6 games Beckham appeared in, 4 were positioned on a national English-language soccer broadcast. Only two of the games in the Beckham era did not appear on some form of national TV. To say that media pressure didn't play a factor I think is naive, especially for a league looking to muscle its way into the American mainstream, and a network looking for a return on its investment. (ESPN, FSC, and Telefutura all paid rights to MLS for the first time this year).

While the Beckham experiment met a premature end, the international profile of MLS has been significantly raised, allowing a crop of electric players to enter the league. Cuauhtemoc Blanco, Guillermo Barros Schelotto, Luciano Emilio, Juan Toja, Carlos Pavon, Juan Pablo Angel, Denilson, and many other new international players may not be here were it not for the Beckham experiment. Next season, after some rest and relaxation (and a thrilling Becks-less finish to the 2007 season), we'll get to see what a healthy Beckham can do in a maturing league.

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An Instant Classic and a SuperClasico

Yes, I know the Packers are playing the Jaguars tonight. Fine. That's OK.

But if you're looking for something to paruse around during the commercials, tonight might be the night to get into soccer. I know I've been preaching to the back of the church....or rather...the people who don't go to church at all about the wonders of the beautiful game, but tonight your other sports options are pretty slim. WNBA Playoffs and Little League World Series. But soccer on TV holds at least one spectacular game, possibly two.

At 7PM on ESPN Classic (Curse my basic cable package!) the Red Bull New York- LA Galaxy 5-4 thriller game from last Saturday is being replayed as an instant classic.

At 9PM on ESPN2, the focus shifts back to live games as the LA Galaxy are on the ropes, struggling for their playoff lives against their in-stadium rivals Chivas USA in the Los Angeles Derby, or as the suits would call it, "The Honda SuperClasico." The game is usually a barnburner as the local rivals square off, and it seems to almost always end in a flurry of a finish in the last 20 minutes. If anything, watch it to see if David Beckham collapses from jet lag on the field. The man was in New York Sunday, then flew to London for England's loss to Germany at Wembley, on Wednesday, then flew back to LA (Only 8 time zones) to play in the LA Derby.

I'm hoping to catch at least some of it in between reading for Crim and Contracts. Boo law school.

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Despite Apperances to the Contrary, I Am Not Joining the David Beckham Hype Machine

I'm just saying...prepare to be let down by the hype that's certainly on its way, if not already here.

If the mainstream US sports media knows how to do one thing with respect to soccer in this country, it's over-hyping things. I only need to point at the 2006 US World Cup team and the last four years of the Freddy Adu era to illustrate that point (although Adu has been playing out his damn mind at the U-20 World Cup in Canada, where the US plays Uruguay in the second round this week).

And it's happening again with David Beckham's arrival later this week. I seem to recall warning of this back in January.

With Beckham's arrival, even if you personally aren't watching, I imagine many ESPN-watchers will be tuning into their first MLS games ever with Beckham in a Galaxy shirt expecting to see world-beating performances. And perhaps that will happen. Colombian international Juan Pablo Angel has lit the league on fire (a league-leading 9 goals in 10 games) since leaving English side Aston Villa for New York. Perhaps Beckham will do the same, as he was arguably in top form leading Madrid to their first Spanish League title in 4 years in June.

But there's also a pretty good chance that you won't see some performances worthy of anything resembling top-flight soccer; and that's not Beckham's fault. At the All-Star Break, Los Angeles is currently mired at the bottom of the table with a record of 3-5-4, 13 points. That's a mark good enough for 12th place out of 13 teams. In the second half, it doesn't get any easier. In an effort to ensure tranquility among the league's owners, the schedule was structured this season to ensure that a healthy Beckham would visit each of the League's 12 other teams. As such, Galaxy still have to play 11 of their 15 road away games. Add into that fixture congestion with Galaxy's involvement in SuperLiga, the US Open Cup, and friendlies against Chelsea, Tigres, and Vancouver Whitecaps, and you end up with an overstretched team whose lack of depth has already been made quite obvious.

Even with recent additions like the signing of Honduras's Gold Cup star Carlos Pavon, the return of Landon Donovan from international duty, and the arrival of ex-Portuguese international Abel Xavier, the Galaxy are still not a very good team, and will face an uphill battle to make the playoffs. It's not an impossible task, but it's a tall order, and I think there's more bad soccer in front of LA before any kind of championship soccer. The hype machine will plow through every city Beckham visits, and if the Galaxy don't make the playoffs, the "Around the Horn" types will likely brand the move as a failure, a wild goose chase, and perhaps as "another reason why soccer will never make it in America."

Just letting you know now so you're not surprised later...

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