Appalachian State, a fringe bubble team, has purchased an ad in the Indianapolis Star newspaper to vouch to their case for an at large bid. With the real selection committee meeting in Indianapolis, they feel this could curry favor and attention to them.
Read more...We the writers at YCS have an obligation to present the Pokey Chatman story, quite possibly the funniest incident to occur in this blog's year-long existence. However, instead of me cutting predictable double-entendres and lesbian jokes, I'll leave that for the good readers and writers of Deadspin.
Addendum from the editor, 3/15/07:
I've been spying on you. Well, actually sitemeter.com has been. I'm talking about those of you who've come to this site because you Googled "pokey+chatman." For some reason, this blog comes up pretty high on a Pokey Chatman search, thanks to Zuch's quick mention of her last week. And that's what likely brings you to this site. (For the record, I think you're sick.)
What I really want to say to all of you who've come here in search of a scurrilous scoop on this sordid affair, please stick around and check us out. We may not be the lesbo harlequin romance you'd hoped to find, but we do have some interesting things to say.
So even though I think you're completely sick, take a five-minute break from your twisted master-servant fetish to peruse our archives. You shan't be disappointed.
Here's an update from tonight's meeting:
Tonight, we started the meeting by eliminating teams from our nomination board. After recent losses in their conference tournaments, Georgia, Michigan, San Diego State and Washington have been eliminated from contention for an at large bid.
Currently, we have 17 teams left on the nomination board:
Appalachian State, Arkansas, Clemson, Drexel, Florida State, Illinois, Kansas State, Michigan State, Mississippi, Missouri State, Old Dominion, Purdue, Stanford, Syracuse, Texas Tech, West Virginia, Xavier
With Nevada losing, there are 17 teams left for 7 potential spots. Another at large spot may be gone should Florida lose in the SEC Tournament. With the chaos in a lot of these conference tournaments, we postponed further at large voting until tomorrow.
Although this is a subject to change, we have slotted the top 16 teams our on S Curve. This will likely change because of the remaining conference tournaments, but as of now the 1-4 seeds are the following
One Seeds:
1. Ohio State
2. UCLA
3. North Carolina
4. Kansas
Two Seeds:
5. Florida
6. Wisconsin
7. Georgetown
8. Pittsburgh
Three Seeds:
9. Texas A&M
10. Memphis
11. Washington State
12. Oregon
Four Seeds:
13. Southern Illinois
14. Texas
15. Maryland
16. Louisville
Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, UNLV and Virginia were the teams up for the vote for spots 13-16, and will be held over for the next vote. A group of another five teams, which includes Marquette along with Butler, BYU, Tennessee and Nevada will likely figure for the five and six seeds. Honestly, I think that is a little too high for BYU and Butler. I currently have Butler a 7 seed, BYU an 8 seed.
Tomorrow night, we will work on the remaining at large spots, and potentially seed up until the 12 line. The rest will be left for Sunday afternoon. This is the farthest behind we have ever been with the at large selection process, but a lot of that has do with the craziness in the conference tournaments.
Here is a summary of where we are at after Thursday night's meeting:
We had a hour and half meeting tonight, where we eliminated more teams off of the nomination board, largely based on conference tournament results. Alabama, DePaul, and UMass were knocked off the nomination board. Clemson and West Virginia were brought up for elimination votes, but kept on the board now.
Currently, the following teams sit on our nomination board:
Appalachian State, Arkansas, Clemson, Drexel, Florida State, Georgia, Illinois, Kansas State, Michigan, Michigan State, Mississippi, Missouri State, Old Dominion, Purdue, San Diego State, Stanford, Syracuse, Texas Tech, Washington, West Virginia, Xavier
After Air Force's loss to Wyoming, we voted on whether they can keep their place on the at large board. In the vote, the committee decided that Air Force will remain in our field.The At Large Board technically has 35 teams on it. However, with the Big East spot now opening, Air Force, the team that was technically in limbo, is officially part of the field.
Here are the teams on our at large board:
Air Force, Arizona, Boston College, Butler, BYU, Duke, Florida, Georgetown, Georgia Tech, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, Marquette, Maryland, Memphis, Nevada, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oregon, Pittsburgh, Southern Illinois, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, UCLA, UNLV, USC, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Washington State, Wisconsin
We will continue with our at large voting tomorrow, with as many as 8 more at large spots opening up. We had a brief discussion about these spots today, with it being in universal agreement that Syracuse, Stanford, Texas Tech, Xavier, Michigan State should be in the field, with Old Dominion, Florida State, Purdue, Illinois, Missouri State, Drexel, and West Virginia fighting for the last few spots.
Also, we will start to discuss seeding, likely starting to fill out our S-Curve(the list of teams in order, 1-65, with each four spots representing a seed line). Any seeding decisions made tomorrow night will still be scrutinized later in the process, but we have to start somewhere.
A buddy of mine from the mock selection committee, Galen Clavio, has an excellent basketball blog previewing the major conference tournaments. Here's a link for those who will be watching college basketball all this weekend.
Read more...
Think we can make it through the 2008 NCAA Tournament WITHOUT a "Top XX Moments in Tournament History" countdown being offered by one of the sponsors or the network?
I mean, if you ran a countdown last year, and a moment from the prior year's tournament doesn't make it, then it should be the same list, right?
Now, I'm admittedly not a science guy, so anyone who has better information, please correct me. I'm not arguing with any of his figures (if he'd present any), but I will take issue with his writing (which will include some rebukes). However you feel about global warming, this really is a very poorly written article that is chock full of holes...like the ozone. (rimshot) Here are some of the highlights.
The next time a ball game gets rained out during the September stretch run, you can curse the momentary worthlessness of those tickets in your pocket. Or you can wonder why it got rained out -- and ask yourself why practice had to be called off last summer on a day when there wasn't a cloud in the sky
I wonder if the author knows who killed JFK too. The truth is out there.
Global warming is not coming; it is here. Greenhouse gases -- most notably carbon dioxide produced by burning coal, oil and gas -- are trapping solar heat that once escaped from the Earth's atmosphere.
Also, the waste from the production of thousands of Sports Illustrated magazines, and all the hot air coming out of Jay Mariotti.
As temperatures around the globe increase, oceans are warming, fields are drying up, snow is melting, more rain is falling, and sea levels are rising.
Holy shit, he's right. I too have noticed the snow around here melting, and I've recorded ever-increasing temperatures since January.
All of which is changing the way we play and the sports we watch.
Loosely-contrived jump from current hot-button issue to sell magazines to issue's relevance in a magazine that covers neither the environment nor politics nor science.....GO!
Evidence is everywhere of a future hurtling toward us faster than scientists forecasted even a few years ago.
Wait, hurtling towards us? Future? Didn't you just say global warming was here already?
Searing heat is turning that rite of passage of Texas high school football, the August two-a-day, into a one-at-night
Might have more to do with parents demanding that coaches NOT treat their kids like crap. Or small towns that base their self-worth on a bunch of 17-year olds nine Friday nights out of the year not wanting to have their rosters slimmed by passed out kids. Also note how the author hasn't listed any examples of two-a-days being cut here, so he's more or less free to say whatever he wants because we don't know any better.
while at the game's highest level the Miami Dolphins, once famous for sweating players into shape, have thrown in the soggy towel and built a climate-controlled practice bubble.
Might have more to do with the rain that comes through South Florida about every day. Or the deaths of players who were in the heat and refused to hydrate themselves.
Even the baseball bat as we know it is in peril, and final scores and outcomes of plays may be altered too.
Notice again how he didn't say HOW it was in peril, or HOW outcomes of plays could be altered? We have to take him at his word because he knows more than us, or at least he won't tell us.
Because of the melting of glaciers and polar ice, and because water expands as it warms, oceans are rising. Researchers expect an increase of up to a meter by 2100, enough to drown wetlands.
Wait.....DROWN WETlands? Also, small note, water expands as it freezes and contracts as it melts. Almost got it right.
If we continue to spew greenhouse gases as we are, the Earth could become five degrees warmer this century. The last time Earth was that warm, three million years ago, sea level stood 80 feet higher than it does now.
So we've had climate change in the past? 3 million years ago? Before humans? Well what caused that? I wonder how many baseball games it affected then.
Since the early 20th century, the amount of rain dropped in the biggest 1% of storms each year has risen 20%.
How can we make the best case? I know, let's go to the sportswriters' favorite tool! Statistical outliers! Let's only measure the top 1%! It's no different than saying that Shawon Dunston leads the NL in Home Runs with runners on 2nd and 3rd with 2 outs at home on Thursdays against the Mets.* (*= Truth not known...Vinnie?)
A warming planet doesn't create hurricanes, but it does make them stronger and last longer. Tropical storms become more powerful over a warmer Gulf, turning a category 4 storm, for example, into a category 5, like Katrina
Not only outliers, let's pick one of the biggest storms to ever hit the United States.
which transformed the symbol of sports in New Orleans, the Superdome, into an image of epic disaster.
Oh yea, this is a magazine whose specialty is SPORTS. However, Hurricane Katrina also gave us the U2/Green Day version of "The Saints are Coming" which is a prety decent song, so I guess it wasn't a total loss. (/gallows humor)
Unlike many other pressing environmental concerns -- pollution, water shortages, overpopulation, deforestation -- global warming is by definition global. Every organism on the planet is already feeling its impact.
Really? How has the global warming disaster personally affected YOUR life. Your goldfish's?
"There are many important environmental battles to be fought," says Bill McKibben, the Vermont-based writer, activist and passionate cross-country skier. "But if we lose this one -- which we're doing -- none of the others matter. It's crunch time."
Here's my friend who lives in Vermont. He listens to a lot of Steely Dan and wears a hemp necklace, but he SWEARS this is all true. (Still no actual facts presented on HOW global warming affects sports, just conjectures.)
Sports condition us to notice first those things that happen at scatback speed, and until recently climate change took place in world-historical fashion, the way a nil-nil soccer match unfolds.
Minor point, but AC Milan took 29 shots on goal in yesterday's Champions League match, and didn't score untill extra time (1-0 final). In a 120 minute game, that's an average of one shot every 4 minutes roughly. On a field bigger than a football field.
But that perception is changing fast, especially for skiers, whose season has endured a whipsaw of extremes: One day in November enough snow fell at Colorado's Beaver Creek to cause the cancellation of practice for the men's downhill at a World Cup event. A day later on the other side of the globe, officials at the French resort of Val d'Isère called off another World Cup event on account of too little snow
Surprise! The weather isn't the same everywhere in the world! In fact, on several days last summer, some major league baseball games were called off on account of rain, but others played on, without a cloud in the sky. What a whipsaw of extremes. That's just in the same country!
Winter in Vermont is now the equivalent of winter in Rhode Island a generation ago.
Latitude of Vermont (42 degrees, 40' North) Latitude of Rhode Island (42 degrees 1' North). All hail the coming....warm snap?
The good news is that stadiums and arenas, if built with green aforethought, can be more than symbolic Valhallas that remind us that we're all in this together. Site one near a public-transit line, and there's less need to build that most Earth-hostile of features, the vast parking lot.
RFK Stadium, US Cellular Field, the United Center, and AT&T Park beg to differ.
The Philadelphia Eagles may have some of the most discourteous followers in sports, but their management is a leader, having launched an environmental initiative replete with catchy slogans like Go Green and Time for Some Serious Trash Talk.
This helps because????
Scientists told the NFL that Super Bowl XLI would put one million pounds of carbon dioxide into the air -- not counting air travel to Miami
Because those planes wouldn't have been flying to Miami anyway.
What happens in an arena so familiar and beloved may sound an alarm we will hear and heed. At a time when so much in our lives is linear and digital, from the economy to technology, sports still run in graceful cycles, marking time in rhythm with the seasons.
So kind of like Football season now more or less starting in July and finishing in February whereas it used to only go from late August to mid-January?
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So there you have it. I'm certain that my own personal beliefs came out in that, and my goal is not to turn YCS into a Yellow Chair Politics, but the idea of Sports Illustrated writing an article about global warming is about as laughable to me as Rolling Stone magazine writing about the details of a nuclear arms treaty.
The fact that the man was so convinced, yet offered, really, no evidence is laughable as well. Before everyone jumps down my throat on how I'm an evil fascist who hates the rain forest, take a step back and think "If I read the baseball season preview in Martha Stewart's magazine, and she says that David Eckstein is the best player in the majors because he has "hustle" and "grit" and doesn't really offer any reasons WHY he's a good player, wouldn't that be worthy of ridicule?
Last night's meeting was pretty quiet, with the only notable event being eliminating Bradley and Oklahoma State from the nomination board.
With today's loss to Villanova, DePaul has slipped out of my field, likely for good barring seriously strange events. Despite the game being fairly close, DePaul's lackluster performance today told me all I needed to know. When fighting for your at large lives, you need to play with a lot more desperation.
Here is my current ranking of teams not yet in our field.
Should Safely Get In:
1. Syracuse
2. Xavier
3. Texas Tech
4. Michigan State
5. Stanford
6. Old Dominion
Big Fans of Memphis and Nevada:
7. Florida State
8. Purdue
Need Some Serious Help:
9. UMass
10. Missouri State
11. Drexel
12. DePaul
13. Kansas State
14. Illinois
15. Clemson
16. Appalachian State
If you’ve followed the Chicago media since the start of spring training, it’s obvious why the White Sox will be better in 2007 than in 2006.
Less food.
...While their 90-72 mark last year wasn't good enough to keep them off their couches in October, however, it did give Konerko a full offseason to rest, as well as grow hungry again.
..."He should be more hungry," Guillen said. "He is not playing with kids any more. In college you face a good pitcher once a month. In the big leagues you are going to face the first week of the season five nasty guys.
...“This guy showed up hungry,’’ said White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen. “He’s the type of guy you like to have here. We used to hate each other when we played against each other, (but) we played the right way. A lot of people say he’s a grinder, he plays hard. Well, no, he’s a good player.’’
...''They got a little taste of the success and winning the World Series, and you want to get it back,'' he said recently of his players. ''They are mad because we didn't win it last year. They are hungry to do it again.''
I’m sorry. That’s less food and more bunting.
So what are the early returns on Ozzie’s Fun-damentals and food deprivation tacticts? From today’s spring training wrap:
Erstad, batting in the second spot, laid down a sacrifice bunt in the first inning Monday that helped set up the Sox's first run.Unfortunately for Iguchi and the Sox, he missed a suicide squeeze bunt that prevented the go-ahead run from scoring in the eighth.
Man, Tadahito Iguchi sucks. Not like that Gashouse Grinder Erstad. It sounds like Tad needs more time working on his Bunt-amentals. And he needs more in-game bunt attempts. Because it’s not like he’s a decent hitter or anything. All he’s good for is moving runners one base at a time. Ozzie should cut him. In both the literal and transactional way. And then Ozzie should curse him out and call him a seaweed-lover or something else racially insensitive. Because that’s what Ozzie does. Because Ozzie don’t take that sloppy fundamentals shit. And Ozzie dice lo que Ozzie damn well pleases, chingadores.
Ozz-ie! Ozz-ie! Ozz-ie!...
Now before I begin picking apart Ozzie Guillen’s flaws as a human being, I think it’s only fair that I confess to being a Cubs fan. But lest we let a potentially intelligent discussion devolve into bickering over arbitrary rooting interests, I will also add that the Sox have always been my second-favorite team, and I enjoy watching them win. I only bring this up because good critiques too often are cast aside over suspected emotional biases—especially in Chicago, where we think “listening” means yelling and name-calling. I insist this is not the case.
Having said that, I dislike Guillen. Immensely. Regulars know that Matt and I criticized Guillen frequently last season, and we will probably do so again this season. Hopefully this post will articulate our disdain, which is not aimed merely toward Ozzie’s general tactlessness.
Questionable baseball strategy is one thing. Its effects on the whole are marginal, and they don’t particularly pain me. What does pain me is seeing someone bask in icon status as direct result of his counterproductive stubbornness. In this sense, Guillen is the anit-Manny Acta (“I am not going to be running all over the place just because 25,000 people in the stands are saying I am aggressive while people are getting thrown out on the bases.”). Whereas Acta is willing to sacrifice his own name for the good of his team, Guillen’s priorities are seemingly the reverse.
But why are fans and managers so quick to fall in love with the bunting, base-stealing, hit-and-running style in the first place? Why will they defend it and continue to employ it, even in the face of strong empirical evidence against it? Why do fans automatically assume that being “aggressive” is preferable to saving outs—that is, proverbially waiting for the proverbial three-run homer?
It’s a matter of control. Being in control. Feeling in control. That’s all. I’d imagine control is among the most powerful instincts of any manager--and for that matter, any player or fan. It makes sense that we’d naturally prefer a style that brings us a greater sense of control. But that doesn’t make it better.
Managers like Guillen buy into their own lust for control and, at the same time, play into the fans’ natural predilections. That’s why the Guillens are so popular. It doesn’t matter if the team’s best fortune is realized. Fans will perceive it this way regardless.
So will the manager. Rather than analyzing different strategies on a realistic cost-benefit basis, the Guillens of baseball idealize the outcomes of these strategies, selectively remember the times they pay off, and justify them by their seeming simplicity—that is, “It should have worked”—even when they flop.
These rationalizations only distort the reality that A) sac bunts / hit-and-runs are not nearly as simple to execute properly as we would like to believe, B) the subsequent events necessary to render the strategy effective are equally oversimplified, and C) the expectation for all to go well, thereby fulfilling the idealized model, is far-fetched.
But again, these fallacies are fallacies that play wonderfully to our need for control. It’s difficult for any of us to accept when events are subject to innate impulses, muscle memory, and random chance far more than they are subject to our conscious decisions. It’s a feeling of powerlessness, and that’s the last feeling any coach or athlete wants to face.
A coach or manager like Guilen will defy, or at least postpone, that unsettling realization simply by employing more maneuvers, regardless of how effective any of them are. If the maneuver pans out, he’s done something. If it goes wrong, the blame is shared. Who’s to say that the call was wrong? At least he was trying.
As fans, we need our defense mechanisms just as badly. While we can’t ourselves call for a hit-and-run or pitching change, we can assert control by second guessing what the manager did or didn’t do. Sometimes this effect can be tangible in the firing of the manager. Most of the time it’s simply therapeutic scapegoating. Misfortune is never the result of random chance. It’s always Dusty Baker. Or a lack of “hunger.” Or a lack of preparation. Anything in the world. As long as it’s something we can understand and can control, we are satisfied.
Hence, we eat up the “Smallball” style. Running hard on the basepaths, cutting back on a swing, concentrating harder on game situations—these are all things we see as controlled by our conscious will. As a result, they’re so lauded that some casual fans might rate David Eckstein over a player like Aramis Ramirez. So when Ozzie says he’s out to kick his players’ asses and not expletive around, he’s a hero to fans who want to see those pampered, privileged pro athletes learning how to be accountable, work hard, take their vitamins, and salute the flag.
Therein lies the diabolical genius of the bunts drills. If Ozzie bunts a lot, he’s bulletproof from critics who might otherwise say he is not “aggressive” enough. And should his strategies result in too many outs, Guillen can’t be faulted because he drilled his players on these “fundamentals.” And after all, it’s the players who have to execute to make them work! Ozzie did his part!
Of course, that's all a bunch of bullshit. People often say that bad managing can hurt a team a lot more than good managing can help it. I think this is probably true. That said, the effect of “bad” managing has its limits as well, unless we enter the realm of consciously trying to lose. For the sake of this argument, let’s not go there. Let’s limit “bad” managing to misguided strategies aimed toward winning. By this standard, it’s important not to exaggerate the detriment of using too many sacrifice bunts.
However, Guillen’s style is no less forgivable. Putting his hubris before the success of his team is selfish and fruitless, regardless of magnitude. It’s as “bad” as “bad” managing gets, short of trying to lose.
Yes, it may be difficult to quantify the stupidity of having Tadahito Iguchi put down a sac bunt with no outs in the second inning, but the ambiguity doesn’t justify blind ignorance. It’s on Guillen to learn whether this strategy has merit beyond his vague, skewed projection of success. A person cannot trust sheer intuition when the disparity between cost and benefit is so terribly subtle.
In that same vein, a manager has the right—the obligation, even—to look upon statistical claims with skepticism. Were I to approach Guillen with quantitative evidence that a Tadahito Iguchi sac bunt is a poor strategy, I imagine Guillen would retort back, “How the [expletive] do you know? Where the [expletive] did you get your numbers? Once you’ve managed or at least played a [expletive] game in the majors, then you tell me something about [expletive] strategy. Until then, don’t tell me how to run my [expletive] team.”
Hypothetical Guillen would be right to question the methodology. Whether he would take the time to hear it out or trust it is a different issue. Of course, a good manager would heed the advice of an expert without needing to arrive at the method and the conclusion independently. Because—let’s face it—Ozzie Guillen would never arrive at complex stat-based conclusions himself. I’m not saying he’s dumb; his brain just doesn’t work that way. Most managers’ brains don’t, and no one faults them for that.
However, only an arrogant manager would put blind faith in his own intuition over sound evidence from a left-brained individual. Just because none of us know how our drinking water is treated, my friends wouldn’t say I was “old-school” or “tough as nails” if I ordered pure grain alcohol and rainwater at the bar. They’d say I’m an idiot. Yet in Chicago, hard-headed egotism gets you icon status and a five-part biographical miniseries.
Is Ozzie Guillen’s bunt-happy style going to cause the White Sox a ton of wins this year? I doubt it. Will Guillen get himself fired by the middle of next season once everyone sees through his bullshit and tires of his personality? Man, I hope so.
These are my thoughts on how the remaining teams not yet in the field should be ranked as far as deserving an at large bid. I will also link individual posts I made in regards to DePaul and Drexel, two teams who I going away from the grain in my thinking about them.
Currently, we have 10 spots on the at large board that could potentially open up. Now, we have earmarked Air Force for one of those spots once it opens. That leaves nine more spots that could potentially be filled. Here is how I would rank the remaining legitimate at large candidates.
1. Syracuse-Their 10 Big East wins, which includes wins over Georgetown, at Marquette and over Villanova, should be enough for the Orange to get in. Their weak non-conference schedule has left them in this somewhat precarious spot, but the Orange will hear their name called Selection Sunday barring a loss to UConn and some other crazy events.
2. Xavier-Solid non-conferences wins over Villanova, VCU, Kansas State and Illinois combined with a strong close to the season have put the Musketeers in strong position to get an at large bid, even if they lose in the A-10 Tournament.
3. Texas Tech-That huge road win over Texas A&M sparked the General's crew to 5 wins in their last six, putting at them in 9-7 in the much tougher Big 12 South. The sweep over Texas A&M and win over Kansas gives the Red Raiders enough beef to counter a lack of quality non-conference wins.
4. Michigan State-The Spartans have played a really strong schedule and deserve to get rewarded with an at large bid despite an 8-8 Big Ten record. Strong neutral court wins over BYU and Texas combined with the huge win over Wisconsin make Michigan State a bonafide at large team despite one true road win. Still, it would be wise for them to take care of business against Northwestern in the Big Ten Tournament.
5. Stanford-The loss of star guard Anthony Goods has put them in this position. They were playing real well before he went down, so the Cardinal deserves an at large bid as long as he returns before the NCAA Tournament. The latest news has him being available for the Pac 10 and NCAA Tournaments. Should this be the case, the Cardinal will get in, just with a much lower seed than they would have had.
6. Old Dominion-A sweep over Drexel and the fact that they were two games better in conference has them ahead of the Dragons in my pecking order. Their win @Georgetown really carries the day for them, along with a very solid non-conference schedule that had close losses to Clemson(who was on fire at the time) and Winthrop.
These next three teams will be huge fans of Nevada, Butler and Memphis this week
7. Florida State-Like Stanford, I really think an injury derailed their conference record. Florida State was 5-4 in conference and playing really solid ball before Toney Douglas's hand injury. Close losses to BC and Maryland may have gone the other way had Douglas been available. With him in the line-up, the Seminoles have quality wins over Florida, Maryland, Duke, and Virginia Tech. Douglas has now returned from his hand injury, with the Seminoles getting a key weekend victory at rival Miami. A win over Clemson in the ACC Tourney may be what puts them over the hump.
8. Purdue-The Boilermakers have been awful away from home, but a non-conference win over Virginia combined with blowout wins over Michigan State, Illinois and Indiana have Purdue just sneaking into the tourney for me. Also, the Boilermakers did have very respectable showing at Ohio State and at Wisconsin, proving they can be competitve against good teams away from home. A win over Iowa in the Big Ten Tourney would go a long ways in helping them earn an at large bid.
9. DePaul-Here is a link to the longer post I made on why I feel DePaul deserves an at large bid.
I've talked ad nauseum about the Demons before, and they are currently my last team in the field. They do have little margin for error against Villanova, as getting a second win over them in New York would be the needed attention getter the Demons need right now. A win over Georgetown the next day would cement their at large bid.
Currently On the Outside Looking In
10. UMass-The Minutemen have quietly sneaked their way to 13 Atlantic 10 wins, tying with Xavier for the regular season championship. Their non-conference win at Louisville has really gained some momentum with the Cardinals Big East run. They remind me very much of the Utah State team that quietly got an at large bid last season. I would not want UMass as an 11-12 seed in my bracket. A run to the A-10 finals would greatly help, and if they lost to Xavier there, I think UMass has a legit case for an at large bid.
11. Drexel-Here is a link to a longer post made why I am strongly against Drexel receiving an at large bid.
The Dragons have been really strong on the road, highlighted by wins at Syracuse, at Villanova, and at Creighton. However, they also went 0-4 against the top two teams in the Colonial, VCU and Old Dominion, and finished 4th place in the 13th rated conference. They also have two real ugly losses, at RPI #197 William and Mary and at RPI #200 Rider.
12. Missouri State-They have a win over Wisconsin on a neutral court, and well a win over Wisconsin on a neutral court. The Bears backed that win up by going 0-5 against MVC leaders Southern Illinois and Creighton, with a blowout loss to Creighton in the MVC Tournament sealing their fate in my eyes. Also, a going-away loss to Winthrop in the Bracket Busters really hurt their at large hopes.
13. Kansas State-They won 10 conference games, but nine of those were over the bottom Big 12 teams. They do have solid wins over USC on a neutral court and at Texas. However, those are their only two wins of note. Their close loss against Kansas has likely put them in a position to make a long Big 12 Tournament run in order to get in.
14. Illinois-Their at large campaign reminds me of John Kerry's in 2004, emphasizing their lack of faults while not giving a real reason to include them. In all of their attempts to win a key game away from home, they came up short. A win over Wisconsin, at Michigan State, at Indiana, or at Iowa likely has them in the field. However, they have made it a habit of coming up short down the stretch. Solid computer numbers, but a lack of bigtime wins and mediocre road-neutral record gives me plenty of reason to leave them out. A win over Indiana in Chicago, and they can vault over a bunch of teams.
15. Clemson-Their victory over Virginia Tech gave their at large hopes a little boost. A putrid 4-9 in their last 13 games has left them in grave shape, but this is still a team capable of a run in the ACC Tournament. A win over Florida State would be a nice start, and following that up by upsetting North Carolina suddenly has them right back into the hunt for an at large. A 17-0 start should have them in the talks for a protected seed, but their season can still be salvaged.
16. Appalachian State-The Mountaineers had real bad luck having to play on College of Charleston's home court in the Southern Conference Tournament. The Mountaineers went 19-4 after Virginia transfer Donte Minter became eligible, with neutral court wins in the San Juan Shootout over Virginia and Vanderbilt. A home loss to RPI #299 Elon probably kills their at large chances, but this will be a very dangerous team in the NIT. If real funny things happen to the teams ahead of them, they may sneak in the field, but they likely needed the automatic bid.
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