A Continuation of NCAA Tournament Harping

Having found a projected bracket at College RPI (love your work Jerry, but you're way off base here) that has Marquette as a 9 seed right now (ridiculously low, especially when he had us a 4 before ND game), here's a look at some teams he has ahead of us. The two criteria I'm using are record versus top 50 RPI teams(basically, that's who you'll be playing in the NCAA Tournament) and road-neutral record (NCAA Tournament games are not played on your home court).

The good guys would be 5-4 versus top 50 teams, and 7-4 away from home

4 Vanderbilt:
5-3 versus top 50
4-7 road/neutral record

5 Kentucky
3-8 versus top 50
6-7 road/neutral record

5 Virginia
6-5 versus top 50
3-7 road/neutral record

5 Michigan State
6-7 versus top 50
3-7 road/neutral record (which includes 1, count it 1 road win for the Spartans)

6 Texas
3-5 versus top 50
7-6 road/neutral record

6 Nevada (Maybe the one I'm strongest about)
0-1 versus top 50 (that's right, they've played one game against top 50 teams)
12-1 road/neutral record

6 Indiana
5-7 versus top 50
4-9 road/neutral record

7 Tennessee
6-6 versus top 50
5-9 road/neutral record

8 Louisville
2-6 versus top 50
6-4 road/neutral record

8 Notre Dame (Another real good joke)
5-3 versus top 50
4-6 road/neutral record (they're 18-0 at home, 4-6 away from Joyce Center)

Now, there are teams with similar profiles with Marquette like USC and Butler who I have rated a touch lower than Marquette when looking at other key factors like Strength of Schedule and Non-Conference wins. Still, it's hilarious to see so many inferior profiles rated ahead of Marquette just based on the knee-jerk reaction of Marquette losing four of their last five games.

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Last Ten Games

With Selection Sunday quickly approaching, it is now time to talk about what I feel has become the most overrated criteria in evualating team's resumes: their performance in the last ten games. In my transition to becoming a full-fledged stat geek, something that takes a look at a random sample of games should not be taken so seriously.

To use an easy example, the good guys have been "sliding" because of four losses in their last five games. It just so happened that their conference schedule has been extremely heavily backloaded. Road losses to Georgetown, Notre Dame and even DePaul are far from embarassing. A two-point home loss from a miracle three-point shot at the buzzer to surging Louisville is not anything to be ashamed about. When taking a ridiculously close look at all the resumes, I've found 15 that trump Marquette right now and another 8-10 that are very comparable to ours. Yet, there is talk of us being a potential 8-9 seed because they have "struggled" down the stretch. If you had magically flipped this tough stretch with our 8 game winning streak (basically what Maryland would be doing now), all you would hear is how Marquette quickly rising up the bracket like the Terps would be doing.

The last ten games stat seems extremely subjective, especially when so many "hot" teams down the stretch suddenly have early exits in the NCAA Tournament. With most teams having a week or so off before their first NCAA Tournament, the momentum a "hot" team may have can quickly evaporate. A team's complete body of work should not be affected by their performance in the last few games.

Now, there are occasions when the last ten games can be taken seriously. If a team has a mid/late season injury or suspension to one of their key players, you can critically evaluate their performances without said player. An excellent example of this would be Georgia Tech, who lost their leading scorer Lewis Clinch in January. The Yellow Jackets only quality win away from home, against Memphis in the Maui Invitational in November, came with Clinch in the line-up. Oklahoma State has collapsed down the stretch after losing sixth man Obi Muonelo. The Cowboys lack of depth without him has caused the starting five to become heavily fatugued, and they have lost seven of their last ten games. Conversely, a team that missed a key player for a long stretch and gets them back at the end of the season should receive credit if their return leads to a stretch of improved play.

Still, unless an extenuating circumstance exists, the last ten games should be a statistic that only comes into play when two teams have virtually identical resumes. When you win a game should have no bearing on its importance, unless other factors like injuries come into play.

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