Reality Check Version Two

Once again, cliff jumping has commenced in Milwaukee. The good guys have lost 3 straight, the last coming on Jerry Smith's last second contested 30 footer at the buzzer. Combined with a close loss at a solid DePaul team and suddenly Marquette is a bubble team(not even close) who may not even make the NCAA Tournament. Like after our 0-2 start, I'm here to tell everyone things will be better.

Marquette clearly has some significant flaws that this three game losing streak has helped accentuate.

1. Lack of consistent perimeter shooting. The closest thing Marquette has to a marksman is Dan Fitzgerald, and his elongated shot release requires him to be wide open in order to consistently hit his shot. I think Lazar Hayward will be a sharpshooter during his junior and senior seasons. However, he needs more development on his other perimeter skills in order to play the majority of his minutes at a wing position. The Three Amigos are all very good at driving to the basket, but none of them have developed a reliable outside shot. David Cubillan has hit the freshman wall, plus his height(I'm guessing he's actually 5'10) also requires him to have a clear opening.

2. No true power forward-Hayward and Fitzgerald struggle against the athletic 6'8-6'9 power forwards that the Big East has in bunches. Guys like Wilson Chandler, Jeff Green, Terrence Roberts and Jeff Adrien are bigtime mis-matches against our guys who realisitically should be wing forwards. Dwight Burke has the body and athleticism to compete here, but his total lack of offensive skills make him a liability to be out on the floor more than 5-10 minutes.

3. Guard depth: Our four guards can compete with just about any unit in the country. However, at this time of the season, the grind of having to play 35 minutes a night seems to be affecting the Three Amigos. Even if James goes pro after the season, the presence of Maurice Acker and Scott Christopheron will allow Matthews and McNeal to get more breathers and be fresher for the latter part of the season.

4. Poor Free Throw Shooting: The last two games, this has kicked Marquette squarely in the ass. Despite being a guard-oriented team, Marquette cannot consistently hit their free throws. All Three Amigos have the potential be 75-80% free throw shooters, but for whatever reason they struggle. I do think that fatigue may come into play, but you still need to hit at least 70% of your free throws. I would not be surprised if free throw shooting greatly improves next season, especially if the issue is a main offseason focus. Other than Dwight Burke, this team has the potential to collectively shoot 72-75%.

Still, this team has some serious strengths that have led to 21 wins. Marquette has one of the nation's best five backcourts. Ousmane Barro has become a tough match-up for slower big men because of his consistent effort running the court. Despite being a smaller team, Marquette is a very good offensive rebounding squad. Also, the defensive effort has been outstanding this season. If teams become sloppy with the ball, Marquette can run them straight out of the gym.

Basically, looking at all the positives and negatives, Marquette should be a 7-6 or 8-5 team in the Big East. They may have taken an unconvential route to get to their 8-5 mark, but that is still an impressive conference record for a team with notable shortcomings that many top 25 teams do not have.

Breaking down the rest of our conference match-ups, I think Marquette has an excellent chance to get to 10-6 or 11-5. I think Villanova will struggle to match-up with our perimeter quickness and athleticism. Curtis Sumpter will be a tough match-up, but he no longer possesses the athleticism of guys like Jeff Green and Wilson Chandler. Even after all of his knee problems, he is still a crafty scorer who can hit the three and post-up on smaller defenders. However, he won't overwhelm Hayward, Fitzgerald and Wesley Matthews like the aforementioned Green and Chandler.

After having a needed five days off, I think Marquette will be ready to give Notre Dame their first home blemish. I don't think Notre Dame can handle Marquette's quickness and athleticism. The one match-up problem will be 6'8 bull Luke Harangody, but he cannot single-handedly win the game for the Irish. All conference road games are difficult, but Marquette has proven they can win in hostile environments.

The final game of the year, a re-match with Pitt, comes after a week off for Marquette. In the first match-up, Marquette was able to tire out Pitt's horse, Aaron Gray. Look for Ousmane Barro to run Gray all around the court and tire him out again. Also, Pitt has really struggled against quick, perimeter based teams. In a must-win game for Marquette, I look for them to finally come away triumphant in a big home game.

As far as the postseason goes, Marquette will be wildly unpredictable. Depending on the match-ups, I can see us making long runs in the Big East and NCAA Tournaments. You absolutely need strong guard play to win in March, and we definitely have that. However, an early exit is also a possibility if we are matched up against a team with solid guard and athletic bigs.

Whenever you have a flawed team, inconsistent results should not be surprising. That being said, we have already had two winning streaks of six games or longer, which you need to advance deep in March. We will be one of the most difficult teams to predict in March Madness, but I assure you we will be there with a respectable seed and the opportunity to do serious damage.

Read more...