NFL Prognosticator: Los Angeles Relocation

Developers have announced the latest plans for a new Los Angeles stadium, and has offered it as a carrot for any team that "wants to relocate." But with the NFL at an all-time high for popularity, pervasiveness and revenues...and with no expansion likely...who would?

We start with 32 NFL teams. I would have to think that any team that built a new stadium since 1995 is out. There's no way any team in the league could get a new stadium with help from state and local government in the future if that happened. The outcry against taxpayer dollars (almost always needed at least in part for a stadium suited for the NFL) being used to support a team that bolts, leaving a white elephant would be prohibitive, and could sully the negotiations for the next round of stadiums.

OUT
Carolina (1996)
Washington (1997)
Baltimore (1998)
Tampa Bay (1998)
Cleveland (1999)
Tennessee (1999)
Cincinnati (2000)
Pittsburgh (2001)
Denver (2001)
Detroit (2002)
New England (2002)
Seattle (2002)
Houston (2002)
Philadelphia (2003)
Chicago (Soldier Field renovated 2003)
Green Bay (Lambeau Field renovated 2003)
Arizona (2006)
Kansas City (Arrowhead undergoing renovations)
New York Giants (New Meadowlands Stadium under construction)
New York Jets (New Meadowlands Stadium under construction)
Indianapolis Colts (Lucas Oil Field under construction)
Dallas Cowboys (New Cowboys Stadium under construction)

With that, we're down to 10 teams.
San Francisco, San Diego, Oakland, Minnesota, St. Louis, New Orleans, Atlanta, Miami, Buffalo, and Jacksonville.

From here, the next logical step would be to pick the smallest media market, hoping the NFL could upgrade to LA, but frankly, since LA is the #2 media market in the country, any team would be an upgrade.

The NFL seems to be angling to get Buffalo into Toronto, so that is not an option. Miami, Buffalo, Minnesota, New Orleans, Atlanta, and Jacksonville could not be moved without a major reshuffling of divisions and upending of traditional rivalries, which was one of the main goals in the NFL's move to an 8-division system. Assuming the NFL still has respect for that tradition, we're down to 4. San Diego, Oakland, San Francisco, and St. Louis.

San Diego, St. Louis and Oakland would appear to be candidates on the surface simply because of their prior ties to the LA area. However, I can't see the Raiders or Rams moving to LA....again...

As far as proposed new stadiums, San Francisco's bid for a new stadium has run into numerous political issues, making them a likely candidate. However, the NFL may be reluctant to move such a historical franchise. Prior recent relocations (Rams, Raiders, Browns/Ravens, Oilers/Titans) were largely franchises that were less than successful in those homes. I believe there are only two Super Bowl appearances between those four franchises in their former homes).

San Diego's proposed stadium has not yet panned out, and would arguably be the most minimally-impacted move since San Diego is only 2 hours away from LA, about the same distance from Milwaukee to Green Bay. Existing Chargers fans would be able to make the commute, perhaps similar to the Packers' model of having games for Milwaukee ticket-holders. The Chargers have already made LA inroads, (the Chargers already have held training camp at the Home Depot Center in the Los Angeles suburb of Carson), and are playing in the third-oldest stadium in the league. So of all the teams that COULD relocate, the Los Angeles Chargers appears to be the most likely on the surface. Someone who knows more about day-to-day NFL politics want to chime in?

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