Iconic

Congratulations, Kansas City! Not only do you have the lowest-paying tech sector in the nation, but your city's defining image is... Larry Johnson. Pret-ty lame, Milhouse.

Read more...

Time to do some research

If anyone knows where someone has already performed this analysis, please let me know.

But I believe one of the most asenine strategies employed by NFL head coches is going for two after a touchdown with a four point lead late in the fourth quarter, as Herm Edwards just did against the Pack.

Intuitively, this makes no sense. Six-point lead versus five-point lead doesn't matter much when you expect the other team to only have one more solid possession. I understand the logic for it--two field goals by the other team will only tie the game, not win the game. But when you consider the success rate of the two-point conversion, it seems that the team is only setting iteslf up for a situation where the other team can go score a touchdown and put them at a three-point deficit rather than having to convert their own two-point conversion to make a three-point deficit.

I wonder, at what minute marker is the value of a six-point point lead over five points no longer worth the risk? As someone who believes the two-point conversion is a strategy that should be used only very late in games, I can't see there being a very large time window where six versus five is worth the risk, if there is one at all.

But seriously, if anyone knows whether there's hard research out there on this and other two-point conversion-related strategy, please let me know. Otherwise, I know what I'm doing on my lunch break everyday next week.

Read more...

Terribly Questionable Playcalling

Looking through the statistics of today's games, a noticeable trend would be the unbalanced pass-run ratios with teams who had success on the ground today. The most obvious example of this would be San Diego, where a sub par Philip Rivers effort led to baffling 30-16 loss at home to lowly Kansas City. Through the first four weeks, the major strength of the Chiefs defense would be their pass coverage. Despite their starting corners Ty Law and Patrick Surtain averaging 200 years old, they have limited the big play save one long Andre Johnson TD catch in week one. That said, Rivers put the ball up 42 times. Meanwhile, Cedric Benson and the real Adrian Peterson each ran for over 100 yards against Chiefs, and LT had 132 yards on 20 carries. Simply put, you run LT until KC proves they can stop him, and then you give them a dose of the Burner. Needing a TD late in the game to get within a score, the Chargers call four pass plays from the 5 yard line despite having the best goal line rusher in the history of the game. While I thought the Chargers could improve on Marty Ball, they replaced him with one of the worst head coaches in the history of professional sports, Norv Turner. Chargers fans will really enjoy going 6-10 with one of the NFL's five most talented rosters.

Not to be outdone, a couple of other genius play callers really put their best foot forward today. Speaking of the real Adrian Peterson, AD ran for 112 yards on 12 carries today in the Vikes 23-16 loss to the Packers. Despite averaging close to 10 yards a rush, Peterson received 12 fucking carries. The returning Chester Taylor added 40 yards on 8 carries. Your backs gave you 152 yards on 20 carries, yet you have Kelly Holcomb throw the ball 39 damn times. While Mike McCarthy has done an excellent job in reviving the Packers to join the NFC's elite (sort of like tallest midget club), the brilliance of Norv Turner and Brad Childress has nicely aided the process.

Finally, we take a trip to the mind of the notoriously pass happy Andy Reid. No wonder Donovan McNabb no longer buys into his plan, what with Reid calling 31 passes despite an O-Line that clearly had no interest in pass blocking the Giants. After getting sacked 12 times (an incredible six by Osi Umenyiora, who had yet to register a sack on the season coming in), McNabb will enjoy spending this next week in the team whirlpool. Of course, Correll Buckhalter admirably filled in for the injured Brian Westbrook, rushing for 103 yards on 17 carries. Apparently, Andy Reid had the over on Giants sacks tonight, as that would be the only conceivable explanation as to why you had McNabb consistently going back to pass despite atrocious pass blocking and a back averaging six yards a carry.

In all three cases, the game situation did not call for this imbalance, as the Eagles and Vikings consistently played around a TD behind, and San Diego had a 16-6 lead before allowing the Chiefs to score 24 unanswered points (a month's allotment for them). Instead of playing to that day's strength, these teams kept pulling the ball up come hell or high water. Because of that, they each received well deserved losses despite having a clear advantage over their opponents.

Read more...