Through the rest of the week, YCS' self-proclaimed football experts will take a long, hard penis (oops, look) at the upcoming NFL Draft, an annual rite of spring as immutable as seasonal allergies, Opening Day, warmer weather and other lame, ill-conceived analogies. To make sure you're familiar with the players your team will cut due to salary cap constraints four years from now, we're here to give you the skinny on the who, what and why that will shape the April 28 Draft.
Today: Projected First Rounders. Zuch handles the offense and Bechtel previews the defensive players likely to go in Round 1 on Saturday.
Offense
QUARTERBACKS
Jamarcus Russell, Jr., LSU
(6'5", 265, 4.83 )
Positives: He has an extremely strong arm, throwing the ball 50-60 yards down the field with ease. Also, he showed some nice touch on passes, separating him from guys like Jaguars QB Byron Leftwich. He has the size to take the pounding of an NFL quarterback. Also, even with his size, he has nimble feet and the ability to escape the pocket.
Negatives: He lacks a little bit of experience, only starting in two full seasons. His learning curve may be a lot steeper than a guy like Brady Quinn. Sometimes, Russell will get lazy with his mechanics and not step into his throws properly. Although he may not be afforded this opportunity, Russell should likely spend a year or two as a back-up, learning an offensive system and the nuances of being an NFL quarterback.
(6'3", 232, 4.73)
Positives: He has a ton of experience, starting for three and half seasons at Notre Dame. His last two seasons, he played in a very NFL friendly offense under Charlie Weis. He has solid arm strength, with the ability to make the wide range of throws required of an NFL quarterback. While not super fast, he has enough speed to elude some pass rushers. He should be able to pick up an NFL offense early and not having the learning curve of Russell.
Negatives: Last season, Quinn developed an awful habit of getting happy feet in the pocket. He did not show this much during his junior reason, but it really came to the forefront last year. While Notre Dame’s offensive line play was spotty, there’s a good chance the team that drafts will have the same problem. While he should be a productive pro, he does not have the elite potential of Russell.
RUNNING BACKS
Adrian Peterson, Jr., Oklahoma
(6'1", 217, 4.4)
Positives: Peterson has the blend of size and speed coveted by NFL teams. He has been super productive from day one, always ranking at one of the best at his position. He seems like a quality player and teammate who you won’t see getting trouble. (We will now refer to this as the Pacman Jones characteristic)
Negatives: He has suffered from ankle and shoulder injuries in college, which lends a question to his durability in the pros. His running style lends to injuries, as he has takes
tacklers head on instead of trying to elude many of them. Also, he lacks experience catching passes out of the backfield, so he may need to come out in obvious passing situations.
Marshawn Lynch, Jr., California
(5'11" 1/4, 215, 4.46)
Positives: He has the chance to be an explosive threat at running back, the type of back who can take it to the house at any time. He has had plenty of carries at Cal, but does not have the wear and tear of a guy like Peterson. Also, he has more experience catching passes out of the backfield.
Negatives: Like Ronnie Brown, Lynch has always been part of a two-back system, splitting carries with J.J. Arrington and Justin Forsett. Whilenot charged, Lynch was entangled in a sexual assault case in 2006 that may raise questions about his character (sexual assault usually does).
WIDE RECEIVERS
(6'5", 239, 4.35)
Positives: His 40 time showed that he has top end speed to go with his awesome size. He runs very good routes, having better fundamentals than a lot of young wide receivers. He could be extremely dangerous in the red-zone because of his size and excellent leaping ability. Also, unlike a lot of top receivers, he does not have a selfish attitude.
Negatives: His performances were a bit erratic, but I attribute a lot of that to the inconsistent play of his quarterback, Reggie Ball.
Dwayne Jarrett, Jr., USC
(6'4", 219, 4.62)
Positives: He possesses excellent size for the receiver position and has already had experience being utilized as a redzone threat in college. He really improved his route running as his career has progressed, not just relying on his size to get by. He is not afraid to snatch a pass out of traffic, and will compete well for jump balls. Also, once he catches the ball, he can be tough to
tackle in the open field.
Negatives: He lacks the elite speed coveted by NFL teams, and he may struggle separating from NFL corners. Durability was an issue last season, missing three games with a shoulder injury.
Dwayne Bowe, Sr., LSU
(6'2", 221, 4.5)
Positives: He has very good size for the receiver position, with a very strong frame at 220 pounds. Even at his size, Bowe runs very fluid routes and has NFL level speed. His production steadily increased throughout his career, with an excellent senior season of 65 catches, 990 yards and 12 touchdowns.
Negatives: He does not have the upside of Johnson and Jarrett. He may not have the burst of speed needed to separate from defenders on deep routes. Also, he still struggles with the intricacies of the position.
Steve Smith, Sr., USC
(5'11", 197, 4.44)
Positives: Very consistent production in college, with three straight years of 40 plus catches, and 660 plus yards. He showed excellent speed at the combine, running in the 4.45 range. A versatile receiver, he can catch 8-10 yard outs and also go vertical. A polished route runner, he should be ready to contribute right away
Negatives: He lacks the ideal size for a number one receiver. He did miss five games after a broken leg in 2004, but has shown no ill effects.
Robert Meachem, Jr., Tennessee
(6'2", 214, 4.39)
Positives: Like Calvin Johnson, he possesses the ideal combination of size and speed. He produced in a major way at Tennessee with 71 catches, 1,298 yards and 11 touchdowns. He has a quick first step and has the ability to separate from defenders running downfield.
Negatives: Like Bowe, he still lacks some of the polish needed for the position. Also, his junior season was the only one with outstanding numbers. His ability and willingness to catch passes over the middle has been questioned.
(5'11",178, 4.4)
Positives: He has world class speed and could be a very dangerous deep threat. He has plenty of versatility, as he could return kicks to go along with playing receiver. He could potentially be utilized in many different ways in order to make big plays.
Negatives: He needs a lot work in developing as a pure receiver. In his first couple of years, he will likely be a 3rd or 4th wide receiver as he lacks the polish to be an every down guy right away.
TIGHT ENDS
Greg Olsen, Jr., Miami (FL)
(6'5", 254, 4.51)
Positives: He possesses all the tools to be a very good NFL tight end, with a great combination of size, speed and hands. Also, he could be an asset as a blocker, which will allow to be in the game at all times.
Negatives: His tools have never equaled his production. He has not been the game changing player like Jeremy Shockey and Kellen Winslow II were at Miami. While a lot of that may be attributed to Miami’s offensive struggles in general, it still raises a few eyebrows.
OFFENSIVE LINEMEN
Joe Thomas (OT), Sr., Wisconsin
(6'6", 311, 4.92)
Positives: A very good athlete, be played at tight end and on the defensive line before switching to left
tackle in 2004. He has very solid blocking technique, playing a major part in the success of Badger backs Brian Calhoun and P.J. Hill. Unlike most linemen, he has the mental and physical ability to step into a starting spot and succeed right away.
Negatives: He does not overpower defenders, relying more on finesse and technique. Although he recovered nicely this past season, there is future concern about the knee Thomas severely hurt in the 2006 Capitol One Bowl.
Joe Staley (OT), Sr., Central Michigan
(6'5", 306, 4.82)
Positives: A phenomenal athlete for the position, the former tight end brings an excellent combination of size and speed to the left
tackle position. His athleticism should help block speed rushers off the end. Unlike Brown, his motor is very consistent.
Negatives: As a converted tight end, he does not have the experience of Brown (below) at
tackle. He still needs to some bulk to his frame. Also, he has not played against the same level of competition as Brown and Thomas.
Levi Brown (OT), Sr., Penn State
(6'5", 323, 5.39)
Positives: He has excellent experience as a run blocker, starting for four years in the Nittany Lions run-based offense. He has good size and width for the position. He plays faster than his 40 time would indicate, with good foot movement.
Negatives: He does not play with as much power as his size and strength (40 bench reps of 225 pounds at combine) would lead you to think. He is inconsistent with his effort.
Ben Grubbs (OG), Sr., Auburn
(6'2", 311, 5.2)
Positives: A very good athlete for the guard position, he moves well on the field with excellent feet. He has greatly improved at the position since being moved there in 2004. His upside pushes him up the board higher than a more polished player like Justin Blalock.
Negatives: He did not emerge as a big-time prospect until his senior season, so there is some worry about his readiness to play at the NFL level. Also, since he is fairly new to the position, he needs time to develop his game and will likely need time to sit and learn the position.
Defense
DEFENSIVE LINEMEN
Gaines Adams (DE), Sr., Clemson
(6'4", 258, 4.64)
Due to limited size, Adams projects as a Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila/Kenechi Udeze-type speed rusher in the NFL. He's not going to bull rush his way past any offensive
tackles, but he's got great explosiveness and athleticism and will be able to put on enough weight to hold up in the running game. Initially, though, he'll probably start off as a situational pass rusher to allow him to add bulk and get used to the technical aspects of the pro game.
(6'5", 288, 4.75)
Enjoyed a career year in 1998, gaining 1,800 yards and leading the Falcons to a Super Bowl appearance while pioneering the "Dirty Bird" dance that caught fire throughout the league. I'm not quite sure how he managed to re-enter college and regain draft eligibility, but...wait, what? Different guy? This one has two A's in his name? Well, fuck me, you're right.
This Jamaal Anderson apparently went to Arkansas, plays a different position and upon closer inspection may be a different player entirely. Anderson left school early after a standout Junior season and is basically everything Gaines Adams isn't. He lacks top end speed but makes up for it with an impressive punch and sturdy presence in the running game. While Adams will probably have more long term potential, Anderson will provide an immediate impact on the defensive line of whomever drafts him. If it's Cleveland, though, he'll suck. Remember Courtney Brown? Man, they screwed the pooch on that one.
(6'2", 302, 5.07)
In case you haven't heard, this dude is friggin' awesome. He's got ideal size and incredible quickness for his position, and plays like he's got a pissed-off wolverine riding shotgun in his jock. Also, dude graduated from college at 19 years old. I'll allow you to take a moment to reflect on what you were doing when you were 19. I bet it didn't involve holding a college degree and being able to kill a man with your bare hands. Man, you've wasted your life. Also, I don't know if you saw this story because the media didn't make any sort of big deal about it, but although Okoye wants to be formal,
he also likes to party.
Oh, one final thing, you racist xenophobe - he's not related to the "Nigerian Nightmare" Christian Okoye despite being both Nigerian and nightmarish. I checked.
Alan Branch (DT), Jr., Michigan
(6'5", 324, 5.07)
At 6'5" 324, Branch eats pieces of shit like you for breakfast. He's the classic Tony Siragusa/Grady Jackson-type space occupying defensive
tackle, which hopefully doesn't mean he'll eat his way out of the league by age 29. His massive frame and decent initial punch mean that he'll be an effective player against the run in a two gap scheme, but he'll be limited by a lack of speed as a pass rusher. More damningly, scouts have considerable concern about the way in which he tended to completely disappear into a non-factor during games late last year. Additionally, scouts worry about his poor performance against top flight opponents, which means if a team can't motivate him, they'll have a $12 million waste of space to deal with for 4 years.
Adam Carriker (DE), Sr., Nebraska
(6'6", 296, 4.9)
Carricker projects as a left end in the NFL due to his good size, but lacks the speed of an impact defensive end. While he doesn't have top end speed, he's got good quickness and strength for a rookie, so he'll also be able to step in and contribute immediately. Additionally, he's white, so prepare yourself to the Aaron Kampman comparisons, because ESPN will rock that angle as long as they possibly can.
Jarvis Moss (DE/OLB), Jr., Florida
(6'6", 250, 4.7)
Moss fits the bill of the prototypical underclassman that rides a breakout season into a first round contract but would really benefit from another year in college. Although he's a very solid athlete, his lack of size and pure strength lead to big concerns about both his immediate impact and long-term potential. Weighing in Moss' favor, however, is the fact that his impressive athleticism means he's suitable to play as a rush end in a 3-4 scheme. Regardless, it'll be interesting to see whether Moss is drafted as a niche pass rusher for a 4-3 team or will be asked to step in and fill a larger role in a 3-4 system.
Justin Harrell (DT), Sr., Tennessee
(6'4", 300, 5.04)
Although a bit undersized for DT at 300lbs., scouts are confident that Harrell will be able to add weight without sacrificing mobility in order to better hold up in the running game. The major concern with this kid is that he's never been a major factor in the passing game, so he could end up as a two down
tackle that you'll have to substitute on 3rd down for a better pass rusher.
LINEBACKERS
Patrick Willis (ILB), Sr., Mississippi
(6'1", 242, 4.51)
Willis has shot up draft boards during the off-season due in equal parts to great workouts and a relatively weak linebacker talent pool. Although he's not the superior athlete of a Johnathan Vilma or Nick Barnett, he's a very steady player in terms of technique and knows how to take advantage of his agility. Most attractive is the fact that Willis is a very reliable
tackle, an increasingly rare trait among college linebackers. Although he lacks ideal size, Willis will be able to step into the inside on either a 4-3 or 3-4 team and make an immediate impact his rookie year.
Lawrence Timmons (OLB), Jr., Florida State
(6'0", 234, 4.66)
Man, is it just me or does it seem like Florida State has a linebacker in the first round every year? There must be something in the water down there. Oh, yeah, steroids. And questionable recruiting practices. That's it. Anyway, Timmons is a great athlete that can and will step up and hit but lacks diagnosing and reaction skills. He'll make plays on both sidelines, but early on will struggle with consistency. Can make an impact as a pass rusher, but concerns about his ability to read plays make his impact in coverage questionable.
Paul Posluszny (OLB), Sr., Penn State
(6'1", 238, 4.63)
Man, Gavin would totally make out with this guy. Loves him. Seriously, though (and not just Gavin's serious gayness), Posluszny would have been a cinch high draft pick had it not been for an injury in last year's bowl win over Florida State. Pos' draft prospects are probably best summed up best in the following by ESPN: "Plays the game with tremendous intensity and toughness (he's white). Displays adequate speed and athleticism (he's slow and white). Diagnoses plays as quickly as any linebacker in the country and takes outstanding angles in pursuit (solid technique = white as the driven snow). He's a natural leader with tremendous overall intangibles (he's David Eckstein-white). Few work harder and respect the game more than him (this guy's white as shit). Very good student, as well (cracker ass cracker)."
DEFENSIVE BACKS
LaRon Landry (S), Sr., LSU
(6'0", 213, 4.35)
Landry ranks with Calvin Johnson and Joe Thomas as the most complete and pro-ready players in the draft this year. Scouts rave about his athleticism and he's very adept at diagnosing and reading plays from the secondary. The only minor concerns with Landry is a lack of bulk that raises concerns about how well he'll be able to hold up against the run. Other than that, he's ready to be an immediate playmaker.
Leon Hall (CB), Sr., Michigan
(5'11", 193, 4.39)
Hall has all the phyiscal tools to excel as an elite corner in the NFL. In terms of athleticism, ball skills and reaction, he's unmatched in this year's class. The only concern with Hall is that he doesn't seem to play as fast as his 40 time, which can be an indication of uncertainty or hesitation, either of which can kill you in the NFL. So long as he gets comfortable in a scheme and has a chance to develop, Hall will be a big time playmaker and a welcome addition to any defense.
Darrelle Revis (CB), Jr., Pitt
(5'11", 204, 4.38)
Revis projects as a solid corner, notably lacking only in top end speed. Otherwise, he's a pretty solid corner that you can rely on as a second corner. Ideally, you'll have to make sure he's got safety help over the top to ensure he doesn't get exposed, but other than that if you take him, you've got a solid player. Additionally, he can contribute in the return game, which adds to his overall value. In the right system (such as a cover 2 that will maximize his ability to play physically), Revis could excel at the pro level.
Next on tap, Zuch and I will take a look at some of the sleepers that could make an impact in the later rounds. Also, we'll hope to have a first round mock up on Friday, when we'll hopefully have a better understanding of pre-draft trades.
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